Celtics vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks | Best Bet Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about Celtics vs. Thunder on Tuesday, Jan. 2 — our expert prediction and betting picks for tonight.
In building the league's best record, the Celtics (26-6) have had an answer for just about every challenge that's come their way, but one thing few teams have been able to do this season is defeat the Thunder in Oklahoma City.
Can Oklahoma City rely on its outstanding defense tonight to pick up a big home win, or will Boston prevail?
Let's get to our Celtics vs. Thunder prediction and pick.
Celtics vs. Thunder Prediction
Pick: Under 240.5 (-110)
Celtics Betting Outlook
Much like Oklahoma City, the Celtics are a complete team with excellence on both ends of the floor. They've now reeled off five straight wins and have only dropped six games all season. All six of those have come on the road, where they're just 6-8-2 against the spread and 5-8-2 ATS as favorites.
So, if there were ever a time for them to go down, you'd pick a spot like this. On top of the damning trends, and the fact that Boston is shooting nearly six percentage points worse from 3 on the road, it will be up against a Thunder team which ranks ninth in defending the 3, according to Cleaning the Glass. The Celtics shoot the most 3s in the league, taking nearly 44% of their shots from deep, and it's not like things will get a whole lot easier at the rim where the Thunder are a top-five team.
It's also worth noting that, while the Celtics have been other-worldly on offense over the last 10 games with an offensive rating north of 127 points, they've faced a large number of poor defensive sides and did look rather pedestrian on that end against Orlando, which profiles similarly to Oklahoma City defensively. They've also ranked 21st on the glass during that span, which is something worth noting considering the Thunder have been trending upwards in that department.
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Thunder Betting Outlook
As mentioned above, the Thunder have indeed been growing on the glass. Though they rank 28th in that regard for the season, they've been right around the league average over the last 10 games, which is a step in the right direction. It would certainly make sense given their size and the fact that they've been rather dominant in paint scoring. It's something to watch in this game.
The Thunder have opted to shoot around the rim more than anywhere else this season, but the results have been rather fleeting with just a 66.1% success rate from within 4 feet (16th in the NBA), according to Cleaning the Glass. They'll be up against the league's top rim defense on Tuesday.
While the 3-point shot hasn't been their favorite, the Thunder have shot around three points worse at home this season, though that hasn't seemed to bother them much. They are a commanding 13-5 straight up and 13-5 ATS in Oklahoma City this season, and that's due to around a six-point increase in offensive production per 100 possessions.
Celtics vs. Thunder Picks, Odds
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -112 | 240 -105o / -115u | -170 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -108 | 240 -105o / -115u | +142 |
Both sides should have an answer for each other's best bullet, with the Celtics doing a bang-up job inside and the Thunder suffocating strong shooting teams all season. On top of that, the Thunder have poor home/road splits in the shooting department, even with their stronger offensive play at home, and the Celtics have struggled to shoot away from Boston. Both teams love to run in transition, but both teams have also done an exceptional job this season defending in transition.
So, while the offenses here are strong, I expect the defenses to shine. If the trends continue in the rebounding department, too, I think the stronger offense — which lies on Boston's side of the court — will potentially receive fewer possessions than an Over bettor would like.
With all of that, I land on the Under here. The number is high, which is slightly unsettling, but both defenses should win out in the end.
Pick: Under 240.5 (-110)
