Pacers vs. Bucks Odds & Betting Predictions - November 23, 2024

You can get this at 32.0 on Underdog. I’m logging it in for Sleeper since Underdog isn’t a listed book. Halliburton’s PRA has been rising all day but I’m projecting this closer to 28.8 PRA. For the season he’s averaging a 27.3 PRA. Last year he averaged 34.9 PRA so it’s like the books are treating him as if he’ll revert to his old self tonight. I don’t know if he’s hurt or mentally ailing. He’s shooting 37.5% from the field. Bucks struggle against point guards but MIL does rank 16th in defensive efficiency, allow the 14th fewest points per game and 12th fewest assists, so it’s a neutral matchup on paper. Playing for half a unit given we have no idea where Haliburton’s head is at and when he’ll come out of the slump.

Since becoming a starter, Mathurin has covered this line in 6/9 games with IND "core four" (Haliburton, Siakam, Turner, Mathurin) - AVG 27.3 PR. He's coming off a bad game vs. HOU where his volume was down and his minutes were down too, but this is a great bounce back spot. 53.4% of his FGA come less than 10 FT from the rim, which may seem tough vs. a MIL team who run double-bigs but Turner's spacing is key. Turner is one of the best PnP bigs in the league and Lopez will have to honor that. Siakam is also a capable floor spacer, so Giannis can't sag off. Prince will guard Mathurin, who's athletic but not great. He has a +1.9% DIFF% as well. Mathurin AVG ~30% PnR FREQ% on the season. MIL allow the 7th highest PnR PPP this season - Mathurin's covered this line in 5/5 vs. the T10 in PnR PPP when playing 25+ MIN - AVG 35.6 PR. He also AVG 13.4 FGA in those MU, which is a +0.7 increase. When Mathurin takes 10+ FGA in a game, he's covered this line in 7/10 playing 25+ MIN and 6/7 with 12+ FGA. I think the REB angle here also creates a nice edge. He'll guard Prince who's low USG and the 4th option on this team, who also sits weak-side on any Giannis/Dame action. As a result of that, MIL ranks T7 in RPG to wings and overall they rank #25 in REB. For what it's worth, Mathurin also recorded 37, 38, and 17 PR in three games vs. MIL last season. The 17 PR game he played exactly 25 MIN, which should be his floor in case of a blowout/weird rotations, but with it being the cup he should see low 30s.

Haliburton is averaging 3.5 rebounds per game, the lowest since his rookie season. His 4.9% rebound rate matches a career low. Haliburton has averaged 5.7 rebound chances this season, down from 6.7 last season. Bennedict Mathurin has started the last 10 games. Haliburton has seen a 1% decrease in his rebounding rate with Mathurin on the floor. He's averaged just 2.8 rebounds on 4.2 rebound chances since Mathurin became a starter. The matchup is a solid, as Milwaukee ranks 24th in rebounding rate and 25th in rebounds allowed per game. I'm just not expecting Haliburton to be the one to benefit from it. He's reached 4+ rebounds twice in 10 games this month.

MGM

Benny the Butcher taking the Bucks out back