Pistons vs. Bucks Odds & Betting Predictions - November 14, 2024

Tailing @roloheaux in his duffy

2u only because I accidentally placed 1u on over instead of under earlier

MISTAKE - Meant to take under , adjustment made in later pick today

Tailing @MillyProps

Dame is out and Middleton is still out. Giannis has covered in 3/3 w/o both them w/ games of 7, 8, 7 AST. In those three games, he's had 15, 23, and 22 pAST - 22 pAST game was last night. That's incredible volume for this line and playing @ home vs. a thin DET team, we should see some positive regression and more conversions on those chances. Giannis has had success against DET in the past too, recording 5, 6, 9, 10 AST and all four were w/ Dame. There have been games where Dame is out but Middleton is active and Giannis has covered in 7/9 of those - AVG 7.4 AST and 16.7 pAST. His floor in pAST w/o both seems to be 15 and when he see's 15+ pAST in a game, he's covered this line in 22/26 games since last season (84.6%). DET can be stingy with AST, ranking #10 in overall AST allowed but they don't have a good defensive MU for Giannis unless they go double-bigs with Duren/Stew. That would clog the paint and ultimately force Giannis into more of a facilitating role. I can also see more doubles and just a collapse minded defense to keep him out of the paint.

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