Mavericks vs. Pacers Odds & Betting Predictions - March 19, 2025

Joining @cawright95 here

Indiana’s offense at home is elite—118.8 PPG, 50.2% FG, 38.3% 3PT. They thrive in transition and lead the league in Assists/FGM (2.29). Dallas’ defense is collapsing—allowing 128.6 PPG over their last five. Opponents are torching them from deep (39.2% 3PT), and without a true rim protector, Indiana’s efficiency should spike. Dallas is missing key pieces—Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, and Dante Exum are all out. That leaves them vulnerable in the paint against Pascal Siakam (52.4% FG) and Myles Turner (if available). Pacers bench is producing—eight players in double figures last game, and Obi Toppin just dropped 34. Dallas’ offense, without Kyrie, is one-dimensional, relying on P.J. Washington. Pacers have dominated this matchup—won last three by 7, 26, and 17 points. Mavericks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10, struggling badly on defense. Pacers control tempo, shoot better, and have more depth. With home-court advantage and the Mavericks in free fall, Indiana should win big.

Hali pre break: 8.5 AST / 14.5 pAST Hali post break: 11.9 AST / 20.5 pAST He's over this line in 9/10 since the break and has recorded 15+ pAST in all tens games (17+ in 8/10). When Hali see's 15+ pAST in a game, he's over this line in 22/33 games (66.7%) and 13/18 (72.2%) @ home. Since the break, DAL rank #20 in AST per possession and have seen a noticeable increase in pace, ranking #8. Hali recorded 12 AST on 18 pAST earlier this season vs. DAL when they were allowing fewer AST per possession and playing at a slower pace w/ Luka. DAL is allowing the most APG inside the arc since the break - 60.4% of Hali's AST come inside the arc. Recent guards vs. DAL: - Jared Butler: 7 AST - covered - Jalen Green: 5 AST - covered - De'Aaron Fox: 11 AST - covered - De'Aaron Fox: 8 AST - covered - Devin Booker: 6 AST - Ja Morant: 8 AST - covered - Damian Lillard: 5 AST (KPJ 14) - Malik Monk: 8 AST - covered Haliburton is questionable so this will just void if he’s ruled out