Heat vs. Knicks Odds & Betting Predictions - April 30, 2023

Heat at Knicks

5:00 pm • ABC

Miami Heat

4-2

108

108 - 101

New York Knicks

2-4

101

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Heat 4-2	+4-108	o210-110	+150
Knicks 2-4	-4-112	u210-110	-180

Sunday 5:00 p.m.

April 30, 2023

Madison Square GardenNew York

NYK -4.5-110

1.1u

D.Robinson o1.5 3pt M-120

1.2u

K.Love o7.5 Rebs+Ast-127

He’s starting & seeing at least 20+ MIN in three straight playoff games. Big key for MIA is for him to rebound. He’s hit this prop in 9 of L10 games when seeing this playing time. Without Randle, I see Bam more on Mitch. #PlayerProps

I.Quickley o14.5 Pts-115

$57.50

I.Quickley o14.5 Pts-104

1.04u

Randle OUT. IQ will need to step up coming off the bench. 31.2 USG% in 2nd half (highest in playoffs) in Game 5 vs CLE. I expect a better series vs. MIA. They struggle defending speedy guards. 24 PTS last meeting: #PlayerProps

K.Lowry u3.5 Ast-130

1.3u

Lowry only cleared this in 1 of 5 games against the Bucks. His pass rate per min and potential assist rate have dropped significantly in the playoffs, but he was able to stay afloat with a ridiculous 67% potential assists conversion rate (48% on the season). Miami’s team total is ~20 points lower than their avg PPG against the Bucks. Projecting this closer to -200

D.Robinson o2.5 3pt M+370

0.5u

Bet at FanDuel. His 1.5 O/U 3PT line is -130 to over so I’m taking an Alt O2.5 at +370. Hit this in 3/5 games vs Bucks. Averaging 2.8 per game and Shooting 72% from 3PT in playoffs (17 for 26). Heat rotation even shorter now without Herro/Oladipo. FWIW: He hit 4x 3PT in NY on March 29th in 28 min.

Q.Grimes o9.5 Pts-108

0.25u

J.Butler o12.5 Rebs+Ast+106

0.8u

J.Brunson o5.5 Ast-130

I.Quickley o2.5 3pt M+130

0.75u

Also bet Series 3s leader at 150/1 on Bet365. Averages 4.2 3s without Randle this season

I.Quickley o3.5 3pt M+330

0.25u

J.Brunson o5.5 Ast-115

0.43u

2/2 without Randle this season

J.Brunson o24.5 Pts-115

0.87u

Over 208.5-105

MIA +5.5-115

MIA +176

1.76u

K.Love o7.5 Rebs+Ast-125

0.8u

J.Butler u30.5 Pts-125

0.8u

J.Butler o5.5 Ast-115

0.75u

NYK -4.5-110

1.1u

NYK -2.5 (1H)-105

K.Love o6.5 Rebs+104

0.5u

J.Butler o5.5 Ast-115

1.15u

Talked this over w/ @Travis_Frase. Brand new series. MIL relied heavy on single coverage rotating Jrue/Wesley/Giannis on Butler. Against NYK, I see more traps & doubles. Jimmy has #1 AST% on team w/o Herro. 6+ L2 vs NYK. #PlayerProps

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No props found

NBA Public Betting

Knicks are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Knicks are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Knicks are 23-17 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Knicks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 15 of Knicks' 41 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Knicks	44-36-2	21-19-1	23-17-1	28-18-1	16-17-1
Heat	40-39-3	16-25	24-14-3	23-21-3	17-18

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Knicks	37-45	15-26	22-19	19-28	18-16
Heat	35-47	21-20	14-27	23-24	12-23

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Knicks	7-6	N/A	N/A	36-11	14-20
Heat	1-4	N/A	N/A	35-12	11-24

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 26th	@CLE	W 106-95	+5.5 W	U 202.5	NYK +185
Apr 23rd	CLE	W 102-93	-1.5 W	U 203.5	NYK -120
Apr 22nd	CLE	W 99-79	-2 W	U 211.5	NYK -130
Apr 18th	@CLE	L 90-107	+5.5 L	U 214	CLE +187
Apr 15th	@CLE	W 101-97	+5 W	U 216	NYK +168