Twins vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - September 20, 2024

Twins at Red Sox

11:10 pm • BSN
4 - 2
Starting Pitchers
pitcherteameraw-l
Richard Fitts logoR.FittsBoston Red Sox logo1.740-1
David Festa logoD.FestaMinnesota Twins logo4.902-6

Twins at Red Sox Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins
0-0
-1.5
-1.5+137
o8.5-109
-120
Red Sox
0-0
u9
+1.5-164
u8.5-108
+100
location pinFriday 11:10 p.m.
September 20, 2024
Fenway ParkBoston
Twins vs. Red Sox Expert Picks
Nick Martin
Nick Martin
55d ago
Last 30d: 174-281-2 (+7.5u)
MIN -120
0.42u
Picks  Office
Picks Office
55d ago
Last 30d: 88-110-2 (-29.5u)
Under 9-125
0.8u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice David Festa’s rookie year has been turbulent, but his potential as a strikeout artist is clear. Festa currently ranks in the upper third of all MLB pitchers in whiff and chase rates, underscoring his impressive 28.1% strikeout rate. However, his aggressive approach has led to control issues, as he’s issued three walks in each of his last two starts. Fortunately, the Red Sox are a favorable matchup for Festa’s style. Boston is striking out at an alarming rate, ranking third worst in the league in strikeouts. They’ve posted a shocking 28.3% strikeout rate over the last two weeks, accompanied by a paltry 6.9% walk rate. This suggests Festa should thrive in missing bats, with Boston’s poor plate discipline playing into his hands. While the Red Sox can still generate power, their current offensive profile leans heavily into strikeouts, which should limit their scoring opportunities. On the other side, Richard Fitts has impressed since being promoted, delivering solid outings in his first two MLB starts. After posting a sub-3.00 ERA in the minors since late July, Fitts has carried his form into the majors. Though his strikeout numbers have declined, his ability to induce ground balls and limit damage remains intact. Facing a struggling Twins offense that ranks 23rd in wRC+ over the last two weeks, Fitts has an excellent opportunity to continue his early success. Minnesota’s recent slump at the plate aligns perfectly with Fitts’ strengths, as the Twins are not generating consistent offense. Additionally, weather conditions are expected to heavily favor pitchers. The wind is projected to blow in at 11.1 mph, which should suppress the power of both offenses and reduce the likelihood of home runs and extra-base hits. The combination of wind blowing in and cool temperatures should further support a low-scoring outcome.
Moneyline Hacks
Moneyline Hacks
55d ago
Last 30d: 63-66-3 (+22.2u)
Under 8.5-115
0.87u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Top Shelf Action 🥃
55d ago
Last 30d: 220-229-3 (+1.4u)
Under 8.5-110
0.91u
#ProSystem . under when home team shutout Overall: 441-314-44,58% (ROI:12%) Season:30-24-4,56% (ROI:7%)
Shady Biev
Shady Biev
56d ago
Last 30d: 174-210-2 (-41.3u)
MIN -110
2u
Lines at Lunch
Lines at Lunch
56d ago
Last 30d: 50-41-1 (+5.5u)
D.Festa o5.5 Ks-125
1u
Sura
Ryan Sura
Ryan Sura
56d ago
Last 30d: 99-110-5 (-14.8u)
D.Festa o5.5 Ks-125
1u
Brian Bitler
Brian Bitler
56d ago
Last 30d: 54-50-4 (+9.7u)
BOS -102
3u
Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo
56d ago
Last 30d: 44-66-3 (-7.4u)
Under 9-106
0.5u
Bet to -112

PRO Insights

Twins logo

Twins

MIN Insights
  • Twins logoTwins have a strikeout rate of 26% vs right-handed batters since last season -- highest in MLB. Red Sox right-handed hitters have struck out 27% against LHP since last season -- highest in MLB.
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Red Sox logo

Red Sox

BOS Insights
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    Twins vs. Red Sox Notes

    Prop Odds Comparison

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    Line Movement Tracker

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    Twins vs. Red Sox Public Betting Percentages

    54%

    Bets%

    46%

    Money%

    Matchup History

    Against the Spread (ATS) History

    overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
    Red Sox
    75-8732-4943-3830-4944-37
    Twins
    69-9333-4836-4546-6622-26

    Over/Under History

    overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
    Red Sox
    79-75-837-40-442-35-437-40-241-34-6
    Twins
    83-73-643-33-540-40-163-43-618-30

    Straight-Up (ML) History

    overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
    Red Sox
    81-8138-4343-3842-3738-43
    Twins
    82-8043-3839-4263-4918-30

    Last 5 Matchups

    dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
    Sep 19th@TBL 0-2-1.5 LU 8TB -115
    Sep 18th@TBW 2-1-1.5 LU 7.5BOS -105
    Sep 17th@TBL 3-8-1.5 LO 8TB -132
    Sep 15th@NYYL 2-5+1.5 LU 8.5NYY +145
    Sep 14th@NYYW 7-1+1.5 WU 8.5BOS +164

    Red Sox vs. Twins Injury Updates

    Red Sox Injuries

    • Lucas Giolito
      P

      Giolito is out for season with elbow

      Out for Season

    • Garrett Whitlock
      P

      Whitlock is out with oblique

      Out

    • David Hamilton
      IF

      Hamilton is out with finger

      Out

    Twins Injuries

    • Jose Miranda
      IF

      Jose Miranda (back) has been scratched Thursday.

      Out

    • Trevor Larnach
      OF

      Larnach is out with hamstring

      Out

    • Joe Ryan
      P

      Ryan is out with triceps

      Out

    Twins vs. Red Sox Box Score
    Twins Player Stats
    Projected
    PITCHERPCIPKER
    David Festa logoRD.Festa, P103561
    Caleb Thielbar logoLC.Thielbar, P100.210
    Michael Tonkin logoRM.Tonkin, P140.110
    Cole Sands logoRC.Sands, P16130
    Jhoan Duran logoRJ.Duran, P20120
    Ronny Henriquez logoRR.Henriquez, P170.220
    Louie Varland logoRL.Varland, P131.120
    Scott Blewett logoRS.Blewett, P12120
    Griffin Jax logoRG.Jax, P8110
    HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
    Byron Buxton logo1B.Buxton, CF2-6200
    Trevor Larnach logo2T.Larnach, LF2-5101
    Carlos Correa logo3C.Correa, SS2-5001
    Matt Wallner logo4M.Wallner, RF2-6001
    Royce Lewis logo5R.Lewis, DH2-6000
    Willi Castro logo6W.Castro, 2B1-4001
    Willi Castro logo6W.Castro, 3B1-4001
    Jose Miranda logo7J.Miranda, 3B0-3000
    Brooks Lee logo7B.Lee, PH0-2000
    Brooks Lee logo7B.Lee, 3B0-2000
    Ryan Jeffers logo7R.Jeffers, C0-1000
    Carlos Santana logo8C.Santana, 1B1-4000
    Christian Vazquez logo9C.Vazquez, C1-4000
    Manuel Margot logo9M.Margot, PH0-1000
    Kyle Farmer logo9K.Farmer, 2B0-0100
    Red Sox Player Stats
    Projected
    PITCHERPCIPKER
    Richard Fitts logoRR.Fitts, P80530
    Luis Guerrero logoRL.Guerrero, P12100
    Chris Martin logoRC.Martin, P19111
    Lucas Sims logoRL.Sims, P21110
    Kenley Jansen logoRK.Jansen, P11100
    Josh Winckowski logoRJ.Winckowski, P13100
    Greg Weissert logoRG.Weissert, P16120
    Cooper Criswell logoRC.Criswell, P22112
    HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
    Jarren Duran logo1J.Duran, LF2-4000
    Rafael Devers logo2R.Devers, 3B1-4000
    Vaughn Grissom logo2V.Grissom, 2B0-1000
    Tyler O'Neill logo3T.O'Neill, DH0-5100
    Triston Casas logo4T.Casas, 1B0-5100
    Wilyer Abreu logo5W.Abreu, RF1-6000
    Connor Wong logo6C.Wong, C2-5001
    Trevor Story logo7T.Story, SS2-4001
    Enmanuel Valdez logo8E.Valdez, 2B0-3000
    Nick Sogard logo8N.Sogard, 2B0-0000
    Masataka Yoshida logo8M.Yoshida, PH0-0000
    Romy Gonzalez logo8R.Gonzalez, PR0-1000
    Romy Gonzalez logo8R.Gonzalez, 2B0-1000
    Romy Gonzalez logo8R.Gonzalez, 3B0-1000
    Ceddanne Rafaela logo9C.Rafaela, CF1-5000

    Twins vs. Red Sox Odds Comparison

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    Twins at Red Sox Team Totals

    MatchupOverUnder
    Twins
    0-0
    o4.5+105
    u4.5-135
    Red Sox
    0-0
    o3.5-125
    u3.5-105