Twins vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - September 20, 2024

Twins at Red Sox

11:10 pm • BSN
4 - 2
Starting Pitchers
pitcherteameraw-l
Richard Fitts logoR.FittsBoston Red Sox logo1.740-1
David Festa logoD.FestaMinnesota Twins logo4.902-6

Twins at Red Sox Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins
16-20
-1.5
-1.5+137
o8.5-109
-120
Red Sox
18-19
u9
+1.5-164
u8.5-108
+100
location pinFriday 11:10 p.m.
September 20, 2024
Fenway ParkBoston
Twins vs. Red Sox Expert Picks
Nick Martin
Nick Martin
Last 30d: 107-121-1 (+15.0u)
MIN -120
0.42u
Picks Office
Picks Office
Last 30d: 86-93-6 (-14.4u)
Under 9-125
0.8u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice David Festa’s rookie year has been turbulent, but his potential as a strikeout artist is clear. Festa currently ranks in the upper third of all MLB pitchers in whiff and chase rates, underscoring his impressive 28.1% strikeout rate. However, his aggressive approach has led to control issues, as he’s issued three walks in each of his last two starts. Fortunately, the Red Sox are a favorable matchup for Festa’s style. Boston is striking out at an alarming rate, ranking third worst in the league in strikeouts. They’ve posted a shocking 28.3% strikeout rate over the last two weeks, accompanied by a paltry 6.9% walk rate. This suggests Festa should thrive in missing bats, with Boston’s poor plate discipline playing into his hands. While the Red Sox can still generate power, their current offensive profile leans heavily into strikeouts, which should limit their scoring opportunities. On the other side, Richard Fitts has impressed since being promoted, delivering solid outings in his first two MLB starts. After posting a sub-3.00 ERA in the minors since late July, Fitts has carried his form into the majors. Though his strikeout numbers have declined, his ability to induce ground balls and limit damage remains intact. Facing a struggling Twins offense that ranks 23rd in wRC+ over the last two weeks, Fitts has an excellent opportunity to continue his early success. Minnesota’s recent slump at the plate aligns perfectly with Fitts’ strengths, as the Twins are not generating consistent offense. Additionally, weather conditions are expected to heavily favor pitchers. The wind is projected to blow in at 11.1 mph, which should suppress the power of both offenses and reduce the likelihood of home runs and extra-base hits. The combination of wind blowing in and cool temperatures should further support a low-scoring outcome.
Moneyline Hacks
Moneyline Hacks
Last 30d: 128-91-3 (+62.8u)
Under 8.5-115
0.87u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Last 30d: 416-671-18 (-4.1u)
Under 8.5-110
0.91u
#ProSystem . under when home team shutout Overall: 441-314-44,58% (ROI:12%) Season:30-24-4,56% (ROI:7%)
Shady Biev
Shady Biev
Last 30d: 57-60-3 (+42.6u)
MIN -110
2u
SpenceBets
SpenceBets
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-115
1u
Lines at Lunch
Lines at Lunch
Last 30d: 72-74-6 (-9.4u)
D.Festa o5.5 Ks-125
1u
Sura
Ryan Sura
Ryan Sura
Last 30d: 53-88-1 (-19.7u)
D.Festa o5.5 Ks-125
1u
Brian Bitler
Brian Bitler
Last 30d: 76-97-0 (-68.8u)
BOS -102
3u
Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo
Last 30d: 165-162-18 (-0.7u)
Under 9-106
0.5u
Bet to -112

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    Twins vs. Red Sox Notes

    Prop Odds Comparison

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    Line Movement Tracker

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    Twins vs. Red Sox Public Betting Percentages

    Away Logo

    Twins

    Public

    54%

    Bets%

    46%

    Money%

    Matchup History

    Against the Spread (ATS) History

    overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
    Red Sox
    17-207-1110-913-154-5
    Twins
    19-1711-58-1213-116-6

    Over/Under History

    overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
    Red Sox
    17-19-17-10-110-912-15-15-4
    Twins
    13-20-36-9-17-11-29-13-24-7-1

    Straight-Up (ML) History

    overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
    Red Sox
    18-199-99-1015-133-6
    Twins
    16-2010-66-1412-124-8

    Last 5 Matchups

    dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
    Sep 19th@TBL 0-2-1.5 LU 8TB -115
    Sep 18th@TBW 2-1-1.5 LU 7.5BOS -105
    Sep 17th@TBL 3-8-1.5 LO 8TB -132
    Sep 15th@NYYL 2-5+1.5 LU 8.5NYY +145
    Sep 14th@NYYW 7-1+1.5 WU 8.5BOS +164

    Red Sox vs. Twins Injury Updates

    Red Sox Injuries

    • Patrick Sandoval
      P

      Sandoval is out with elbow

      Out

    • Kutter Crawford
      P

      Crawford is out with knee

      Out

    • Masataka Yoshida
      OF

      Yoshida is out with shoulder

      Out

    Twins Injuries

      Twins vs. Red Sox Box Score
      Twins Player Stats
      Projected
      PITCHERPCIPKER
      David Festa logoRD.Festa, P103561
      Caleb Thielbar logoLC.Thielbar, P100.210
      Michael Tonkin logoRM.Tonkin, P140.110
      Cole Sands logoRC.Sands, P16130
      Jhoan Duran logoRJ.Duran, P20120
      Ronny Henriquez logoRR.Henriquez, P170.220
      Louis Varland logoRL.Varland, P131.120
      Scott Blewett logoRS.Blewett, P12120
      Griffin Jax logoRG.Jax, P8110
      HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
      Byron Buxton logo1B.Buxton, CF2-6200
      Trevor Larnach logo2T.Larnach, LF2-5101
      Carlos Correa logo3C.Correa, SS2-5001
      Matt Wallner logo4M.Wallner, RF2-6001
      Royce Lewis logo5R.Lewis, DH2-6000
      Willi Castro logo6W.Castro, 2B1-4001
      Willi Castro logo6W.Castro, 3B1-4001
      Jose Miranda logo7J.Miranda, 3B0-3000
      Brooks Lee logo7B.Lee, PH0-2000
      Brooks Lee logo7B.Lee, 3B0-2000
      Ryan Jeffers logo7R.Jeffers, C0-1000
      Carlos Santana logo8C.Santana, 1B1-4000
      Christian Vazquez logo9C.Vazquez, C1-4000
      Manuel Margot logo9M.Margot, PH0-1000
      Kyle Farmer logo9K.Farmer, 2B0-0100
      Red Sox Player Stats
      Projected
      PITCHERPCIPKER
      Richard Fitts logoRR.Fitts, P80530
      Luis Guerrero logoRL.Guerrero, P12100
      Chris Martin logoRC.Martin, P19111
      Lucas Sims logoRL.Sims, P21110
      Kenley Jansen logoRK.Jansen, P11100
      Josh Winckowski logoRJ.Winckowski, P13100
      Greg Weissert logoRG.Weissert, P16120
      Cooper Criswell logoRC.Criswell, P22112
      HITTERSH-ABRHRRBI
      Jarren Duran logo1J.Duran, LF2-4000
      Rafael Devers logo2R.Devers, 3B1-4000
      Vaughn Grissom logo2V.Grissom, 2B0-1000
      Tyler O'Neill logo3T.O'Neill, DH0-5100
      Triston Casas logo4T.Casas, 1B0-5100
      Wilyer Abreu logo5W.Abreu, RF1-6000
      Connor Wong logo6C.Wong, C2-5001
      Trevor Story logo7T.Story, SS2-4001
      Enmanuel Valdez logo8E.Valdez, 2B0-3000
      Nick Sogard logo8N.Sogard, 2B0-0000
      Masataka Yoshida logo8M.Yoshida, PH0-0000
      Romy Gonzalez logo8R.Gonzalez, PR0-1000
      Romy Gonzalez logo8R.Gonzalez, 2B0-1000
      Romy Gonzalez logo8R.Gonzalez, 3B0-1000
      Ceddanne Rafaela logo9C.Rafaela, CF1-5000

      Twins vs. Red Sox Odds Comparison

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      Twins at Red Sox Team Totals

      MatchupOverUnder
      Twins
      16-20
      o4.5+105
      u4.5-135
      Red Sox
      18-19
      o3.5-125
      u3.5-105