Twins vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - September 20, 2024
Twins at Red Sox
11:10 pm • BSNStarting Pitchers
pitcher | team | era | w-l | |
---|---|---|---|---|
R.Fitts | 1.74 | 0-1 | ||
D.Festa | 4.90 | 2-6 |
Twins at Red Sox Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Twins 0-0 | -1.5 | -1.5+137 | o8.5-109 | -120 |
Red Sox 0-0 | u9 | +1.5-164 | u8.5-108 | +100 |
Friday 11:10 p.m.
September 20, 2024Fenway ParkBoston
Twins vs. Red Sox Expert Picks
Nick Martin
55d ago
Last 30d: 174-281-2 (+7.5u)
MIN -120
0.42u
Picks Office
55d ago
Last 30d: 88-110-2 (-29.5u)
Under 9-125
0.8u
Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice
David Festa’s rookie year has been turbulent, but his potential as a strikeout artist is clear. Festa currently ranks in the upper third of all MLB pitchers in whiff and chase rates, underscoring his impressive 28.1% strikeout rate. However, his aggressive approach has led to control issues, as he’s issued three walks in each of his last two starts. Fortunately, the Red Sox are a favorable matchup for Festa’s style. Boston is striking out at an alarming rate, ranking third worst in the league in strikeouts. They’ve posted a shocking 28.3% strikeout rate over the last two weeks, accompanied by a paltry 6.9% walk rate. This suggests Festa should thrive in missing bats, with Boston’s poor plate discipline playing into his hands. While the Red Sox can still generate power, their current offensive profile leans heavily into strikeouts, which should limit their scoring opportunities.
On the other side, Richard Fitts has impressed since being promoted, delivering solid outings in his first two MLB starts. After posting a sub-3.00 ERA in the minors since late July, Fitts has carried his form into the majors. Though his strikeout numbers have declined, his ability to induce ground balls and limit damage remains intact. Facing a struggling Twins offense that ranks 23rd in wRC+ over the last two weeks, Fitts has an excellent opportunity to continue his early success. Minnesota’s recent slump at the plate aligns perfectly with Fitts’ strengths, as the Twins are not generating consistent offense.
Additionally, weather conditions are expected to heavily favor pitchers. The wind is projected to blow in at 11.1 mph, which should suppress the power of both offenses and reduce the likelihood of home runs and extra-base hits. The combination of wind blowing in and cool temperatures should further support a low-scoring outcome.
Moneyline Hacks
55d ago
Last 30d: 63-66-3 (+22.2u)
Under 8.5-115
0.87u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
55d ago
Last 30d: 220-229-3 (+1.4u)
Under 8.5-110
0.91u
#ProSystem
. under when home team shutout
Overall: 441-314-44,58% (ROI:12%)
Season:30-24-4,56% (ROI:7%)
Shady Biev
56d ago
Last 30d: 174-210-2 (-41.3u)
MIN -110
2u
Lines at Lunch
56d ago
Last 30d: 50-41-1 (+5.5u)
D.Festa o5.5 Ks-125
1u
Sura
Ryan Sura
56d ago
Last 30d: 99-110-5 (-14.8u)
D.Festa o5.5 Ks-125
1u
Brian Bitler
56d ago
Last 30d: 54-50-4 (+9.7u)
BOS -102
3u
Sean Zerillo
56d ago
Last 30d: 44-66-3 (-7.4u)
Under 9-106
0.5u
Bet to -112
PRO Insights
Twins
MIN Insights
- Featured InsightTwins have a strikeout rate of 26% vs right-handed batters since last season -- highest in MLB. Red Sox right-handed hitters have struck out 27% against LHP since last season -- highest in MLB.
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Twins vs. Red Sox Previews & Analysis
Twins vs. Red Sox Notes
Keys to the Game
Matchup Contrasts
Today's Starting Pitchers
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Twins vs. Red Sox Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Red Sox are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Red Sox' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Red Sox' 81 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Red Sox vs. Twins Injury Updates
Red Sox Injuries
- Lucas GiolitoP
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
- Garrett WhitlockP
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
- David HamiltonIF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out
Twins Injuries
- Jose MirandaIF
Jose Miranda (back) has been scratched Thursday.
Out
- Trevor LarnachOF
Larnach is out with hamstring
Out
- Joe RyanP
Ryan is out with triceps
Out
Twins vs. Red Sox Box Score
Twins Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RD.Festa, P | 103 | 5 | 6 | 1 | |
LC.Thielbar, P | 10 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | |
RM.Tonkin, P | 14 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | |
RC.Sands, P | 16 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
RJ.Duran, P | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
RR.Henriquez, P | 17 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | |
RL.Varland, P | 13 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | |
RS.Blewett, P | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
RG.Jax, P | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1B.Buxton, CF | 2-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
2T.Larnach, LF | 2-5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
3C.Correa, SS | 2-5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
4M.Wallner, RF | 2-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
5R.Lewis, DH | 2-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6W.Castro, 2B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
6W.Castro, 3B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
7J.Miranda, 3B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
7B.Lee, PH | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
7B.Lee, 3B | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
7R.Jeffers, C | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8C.Santana, 1B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9C.Vazquez, C | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9M.Margot, PH | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9K.Farmer, 2B | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Red Sox Player Stats
ProjectedPITCHER | PC | IP | K | ER | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RR.Fitts, P | 80 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
RL.Guerrero, P | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
RC.Martin, P | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
RL.Sims, P | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
RK.Jansen, P | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
RJ.Winckowski, P | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
RG.Weissert, P | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
RC.Criswell, P | 22 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
HITTERS | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
---|---|---|---|---|
1J.Duran, LF | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2R.Devers, 3B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2V.Grissom, 2B | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3T.O'Neill, DH | 0-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
4T.Casas, 1B | 0-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
5W.Abreu, RF | 1-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
6C.Wong, C | 2-5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
7T.Story, SS | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
8E.Valdez, 2B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8N.Sogard, 2B | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8M.Yoshida, PH | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8R.Gonzalez, PR | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8R.Gonzalez, 2B | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8R.Gonzalez, 3B | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9C.Rafaela, CF | 1-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Twins vs. Red Sox Odds Comparison
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Twins at Red Sox Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Twins 0-0 | o4.5+105 | u4.5-135 |
Red Sox 0-0 | o3.5-125 | u3.5-105 |