Twins vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - July 30, 2024

Twins at Mets

11:10 pm • SNY

Minnesota Twins

0-0

0 - 2

New York Mets

7-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Manaea			3.47	12-6
D.Festa			4.90	2-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 0-0	PK-101	o8.5-109	-105
Mets 7-6	PK+100	u8.5-111	-115

Tuesday 11:10 p.m.

July 30, 2024

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

MIN +105

J.Winker o0.5 RBI+265

0.5u

Batting 5th so should see plenty of RBI opportunities. Good matchup too vs. a RHP (.267, .840 OPS). A 16% edge per our Action Lab projections

R.Lewis o0.5 RBI+180

0.5u

RBI in 14/28 games this season (50%) and gets a plus matchups vs. LHP (.387 avg, 1.201 OPS)

Over 8.5-105

1.05u

C.Santana o0.5 Total Bases-160

0.63u

Projection lands at 1.43 and a +ev pick with devig odds of -196 giving us value at this number

MIN +105

MIN +108

$50.00

S.Manaea u17.5 Outs-105

MIN +120

S.Manaea u17.5 Outs-106

1.06u

Manaea under in 14/20 starts, with the 7th highest pitches per PA (4.11) amongst qualified pitchers. Twins profile as an above avg hitting team vs lefties, with 6 hitters likely to start today with a wRC+ vs lefties at 107 or better.

MIN +120

0.5u

Bet to +114

MIN +118 (F5)

0.25u

Small to +112

MIN +120

Featured Insight
The Twins have scored 1.4 runs per game in close and late situations this season -- highest in MLB (70 games). The Mets have allowed 1.4 runs per game in close and late situations this season -- fifth highest in MLB (69 games).

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Featured Insight
Mets RPs have a strikeout rate of 26% vs left-handed batters since last season -- third highest in MLB. Twins left-handed hitters have struck out 26% against RHP since last season -- second highest in MLB.

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MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 29th	MIN	W 15-2	+1.5 W	O 8.5	NYM -112
Jul 28th	ATL	L 2-9	+1.5 L	O 8	ATL -115
Jul 27th	ATL	L 0-4	+1.5 L	U 7.5	ATL -120
Jul 26th	ATL	W 8-4	-1.5 W	O 7.5	NYM -135
Jul 25th	ATL	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 7	NYM +100

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

Jose Miranda
IF
Jose Miranda (back) has been scratched Thursday.
Out
Trevor Larnach
OF
Larnach is out with hamstring
Out
Joe Ryan
P
Ryan is out with triceps
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.Festa, P	68	5	6	2
RJ.Alcala, P	30	1	2	0
RG.Jax, P	11	1	1	0
LC.Thielbar, P	16	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Margot, RF	0-3	0	0	0
1T.Larnach, PH	0-1	0	0	0
1T.Larnach, LF	0-1	0	0	0
2B.Buxton, CF	0-4	0	0	0
3R.Lewis, DH	0-3	0	0	0
4J.Miranda, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
5C.Santana, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
6W.Castro, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
7A.Martin, LF	0-2	0	0	0
7M.Kepler, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7M.Kepler, RF	0-1	0	0	0
8C.Vazquez, C	0-3	0	0	0
9B.Lee, SS	1-2	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
LS.Manaea, P	96	7	11
RR.Stanek, P	20	0.2	0
RE.Diaz, P	20	1.1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	0-4	0	0	0
2B.Nimmo, LF	1-3	1	0	0
3J.Martinez, DH	2-4	0	0	1
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
5J.Winker, RF	1-3	0	0	0
5T.Taylor, RF	0-0	0	0	0
6M.Vientos, 3B	1-3	1	1	1
6J.Iglesias, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
7J.McNeil, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
8L.Torrens, C	0-3	0	0	0
9H.Bader, CF	0-3	0	0	0