Twins vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - July 30, 2024

Twins at Mets

11:10 pm • SNY

Minnesota Twins

21-20

0 - 2

New York Mets

27-15

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Manaea			3.47	12-6
D.Festa			4.90	2-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 21-20	PK-101	o8.5-109	-105
Mets 27-15	PK+100	u8.5-111	-115

Tuesday 11:10 p.m.

July 30, 2024

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

MIN +105

Over 8.5-105

1.05u

R.Lewis o0.5 HR+400

0.25u

C.Santana o0.5 Total Bases-160

0.63u

Projection lands at 1.43 and a +ev pick with devig odds of -196 giving us value at this number

MIN +105

S.Manaea u17.5 Outs-105

MIN +120

S.Manaea u17.5 Outs-106

1.06u

Manaea under in 14/20 starts, with the 7th highest pitches per PA (4.11) amongst qualified pitchers. Twins profile as an above avg hitting team vs lefties, with 6 hitters likely to start today with a wRC+ vs lefties at 107 or better.

MIN +120

0.5u

Bet to +114

MIN +118 (F5)

0.25u

Small to +112

Featured Insight
The Twins have scored 1.4 runs per game in close and late situations this season -- highest in MLB (70 games). The Mets have allowed 1.4 runs per game in close and late situations this season -- fifth highest in MLB (69 games).

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Featured Insight
Mets RPs have a strikeout rate of 26% vs left-handed batters since last season -- third highest in MLB. Twins left-handed hitters have struck out 26% against RHP since last season -- second highest in MLB.

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MLB Public Betting

Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 9-13 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Mets' 20 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	21-21	12-8	9-13	15-17	6-4
Twins	23-18	15-6	8-12	15-12	8-6

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	16-25-1	7-12-1	9-13	16-15-1	0-10
Twins	14-24-3	7-13-1	7-11-2	10-15-2	4-9-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	27-15	16-4	11-11	22-10	5-5
Twins	21-20	15-6	6-14	15-12	6-8

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 29th	MIN	W 15-2	+1.5 W	O 8.5	NYM -112
Jul 28th	ATL	L 2-9	+1.5 L	O 8	ATL -115
Jul 27th	ATL	L 0-4	+1.5 L	U 7.5	ATL -120
Jul 26th	ATL	W 8-4	-1.5 W	O 7.5	NYM -135
Jul 25th	ATL	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 7	NYM +100

Frankie Montas
SP
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
SP
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Paul Blackburn
SP
Blackburn is out with knee
Out
Jose Siri
CF
Siri is out with leg
Out
Nick Madrigal
3B
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Ronny Mauricio
SS
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
SP
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.Festa, P	68	5	6	2
RJ.Alcala, P	30	1	2	0
RG.Jax, P	11	1	1	0
LC.Thielbar, P	16	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Margot, RF	0-3	0	0	0
1T.Larnach, PH	0-1	0	0	0
1T.Larnach, LF	0-1	0	0	0
2B.Buxton, CF	0-4	0	0	0
3R.Lewis, DH	0-3	0	0	0
4J.Miranda, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
5C.Santana, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
6W.Castro, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
7A.Martin, LF	0-2	0	0	0
7M.Kepler, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7M.Kepler, RF	0-1	0	0	0
8C.Vazquez, C	0-3	0	0	0
9B.Lee, SS	1-2	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
LS.Manaea, P	96	7	11
RR.Stanek, P	20	0.2	0
RE.Diaz, P	20	1.1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	0-4	0	0	0
2B.Nimmo, LF	1-3	1	0	0
3J.Martinez, DH	2-4	0	0	1
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
5J.Winker, RF	1-3	0	0	0
5T.Taylor, RF	0-0	0	0	0
6M.Vientos, 3B	1-3	1	1	1
6J.Iglesias, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
7J.McNeil, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
8L.Torrens, C	0-3	0	0	0
9H.Bader, CF	0-3	0	0	0