Twins vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - April 3, 2023

Twins at Marlins

10:40 pm • BSFL

Minnesota Twins

0-0

11 - 1

Miami Marlins

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Cueto			6.02	1-4
T.Mahle			3.16	1-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 0-0	-1.5+130	o8-115	-126
Marlins 0-0	+1.5-158	u8-105	+106

Monday 10:40 p.m.

April 03, 2023

loanDepot parkMiami

T.Mahle o4.5 Ks-122

MIA +105

MIN -120

$62.50

Still playing mlb small, but upgrading to .75U

MIN -122

0.82u

#charliedisturco @charliedisturco

T.Mahle o4.5 Ks-129

0.16u

T.Mahle o4.5 Ks-105

0.95u

MIN -125 (F5)

0.5u

Need -125 or better. Line also at Wynn

MIN -125

MIN -130 (F5)

MIN -115

I’ll take Mahle at a near PK every day of the week against 37-year-old Johnny Cueto. Cueto: 4.02 xERA, .263 xBA (bottom 16%), .408 xSLG & doesn’t strike batters out Mahle: 3.49 xERA (to 4.4 ERA - regression candidate) and .214 xBA (top 25%). If he hones in control, he’s a top arm for Minny Twins better offense: https://www.actionnetwork.com/content/mlb-picks-predictions-odds-best-bets-monday-april-3-2023/embed

Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Monday MLB Betting Card
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Apr 3, 2023 UTC
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The Twins are just 15-129 (.104) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .128.

Yuli Gurriel had a miss rate of only 11% on elevated fastballs last season -- sixth best in MLB-- 95th Percentile. Tyler Mahle located his fastball up 58% of the time last season -- 10th highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 93rd Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (74/396) against Johnny Cueto on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season -- 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 26% -- fifth Percentile.

Opponents had a swing rate of just 32% (103/326) against Tyler Mahle on low breaking pitches in 2022 -- 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 47% -- second Percentile.

Opponents had a line drive rate of just 15% (23/155) versus Tyler Mahle on fastballs in 2022 -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Marlins are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 53 of Marlins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	77-85	35-46	42-39	2-15	75-70
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	85-66-11	53-20-8	32-46-3	11-5-1	74-61-10
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	62-100	30-51	32-49	4-13	58-87
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 2nd	NYM	L 1-5	+1.5 L	U 8	NYM +100
Apr 1st	NYM	L 2-6	+1.5 L	U 8.5	NYM -114
Mar 31st	NYM	W 2-1	+1.5 W	U 8	MIA -110
Mar 30th	NYM	L 3-5	+1.5 L	O 7	NYM +108
Mar 26th	@NYM	L 3-3	-	-	-

Sixto Sanchez
P
Sanchez is out with shoulder
Out
Sandy Alcantara
P
Alcantara is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Jesus Luzardo
P
Luzardo is out with back
Out
Max Meyer
P
Meyer is out with shoulder
Out
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

Jose Miranda
IF
Jose Miranda (back) has been scratched Thursday.
Out
Trevor Larnach
OF
Larnach is out with hamstring
Out
Joe Ryan
P
Ryan is out with triceps
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Mahle, P	83	5	7	1
RJ.Alcala, P	25	2	3	0
RC.Sands, P	28	2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Kepler, RF	2-3	1	1	1
1K.Farmer, PR	0-2	1	0	0
1K.Farmer, 2B	0-2	1	0	0
1K.Farmer, SS	0-2	1	0	0
2C.Correa, SS	2-4	1	0	2
2W.Castro, LF	0-1	0	0	0
3B.Buxton, DH	0-3	1	0	0
3R.Jeffers, PH	1-1	1	1	1
3R.Jeffers, DH	1-1	1	1	1
4T.Larnach, LF	2-5	2	1	3
4T.Larnach, RF	2-5	2	1	3
5J.Miranda, 3B	1-3	1	0	1
6N.Gordon, 2B	1-4	1	0	0
6N.Gordon, LF	1-4	1	0	0
6N.Gordon, 2B	1-4	1	0	0
7J.Gallo, 1B	1-3	1	1	3
7D.Solano, 1B	0-1	0	0	0
8C.Vazquez, C	0-2	1	0	0
9M.Taylor, CF	0-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Cueto, P	30	1	0	4
RJ.Lindgren, P	80	5	0	4
LA.Nardi, P	20	1	1	2
RJ.Chargois, P	16	1	2	0
RJ.Stallings, P	13	1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1L.Arraez, 2B	2-5	0	1
2J.Soler, DH	1-4	0	0
2N.Fortes, C	0-0	0	0
3G.Cooper, 1B	1-3	0	0
3Y.Gurriel, 1B	1-1	0	0
4J.Chisholm, CF	1-4	0	0
5A.Garcia, RF	2-4	0	0
6J. Segura, 3B	0-4	0	0
7B.De La Cruz, LF	3-4	1	0
8J.Stallings, C	0-3	0	0
9J.Berti, SS	1-4	0	0