Red Sox vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - July 4, 2025

Red Sox at Nationals

3:05 pm • NESN

Boston Red Sox

44-45

11 - 2

Washington Nationals

37-51

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Soroka			5.40	3-6
L.Giolito			3.66	5-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 44-45	-1.5	-1.5+139	o8-112	-115
Nationals 37-51	u8.5	+1.5-171	u8-108	-105

Friday 3:05 p.m.

July 04, 2025

Nationals ParkWashington

BOS -111

0.9u

Under 4.5 (F5)-130

0.5u

Feels weird to back Lucas Giolito and Mike Soroka, but that's what I'm doing on this July 4th. Soroka has a 4.70 ERA but a 3.05 xERA, and has found a way to cut his walk rate in half from last year (12.7% to 6.2%). He's simply been better this season than his surface stats. On the other side we get Lucas Giolito who has struggled over the entirety of this season. His xERA (4.97) is actually higher than his ERA (3.99). He's also seen a big decline in his strikeout rate (20.7%, down four points than his career average). The Nationals offense has been surging lately so this isn't a cakewalk matchup, but he's coming off an outing where he threw seven scoreless innings and Alex Cora said he's made some adjustments during a recent bullpen session. They appear to be working as he's only allowed four earned runs over his last four starts, spanning 25 innings. I'm going to be sweating those James Wood at-bats, but I have this projected closer to 4 runs in the F5.

L.Giolito o2.5 Earned Runs+115

Over 8.5-105

0.95u

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WSH -105

Over 8.5-115

0.87u

WSH -102

Over 8.5-104

0.5u

Bet to -118

Under 4.5 (F5)-118

1.18u

Sunrise Slow Starts F5 Overall: 25-14-4,64% (ROI:21%) Season:1-1-0,50% (ROI:-2%)

BOS -115

Fresh Legs, Fat W’s Overall: 281-195-0,59% (ROI:13%) Season:6-6-0,50% (ROI:2%)

BOS -1.5+146

1.46u

Red Sox vs. Nationals: An Independence Day Matinee
Mike Ianniello•
Jul 4, 2025 UTC

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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Nationals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Nationals are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nationals are 26-18 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Nationals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 22 of Nationals' 44 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	45-43	19-25	26-18	2-12	43-31
Red Sox	45-44	22-23	23-21	26-29	19-13

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nationals	44-42-2	22-22	22-20-2	5-9	39-33-2
Red Sox	42-46-1	19-25-1	23-21	25-29-1	17-15

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	37-51	18-26	19-25	4-10	33-41
Red Sox	44-45	25-20	19-25	29-26	15-17

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 3rd	DET	W 11-7	+1.5 W	O 10	WSH +116
Jul 2nd	DET	W 9-4	+1.5 W	O 8	WSH -110
Jul 2nd	DET	L 2-11	+1.5 L	O 9	DET +130
Jun 29th	@LAA	W 7-4	+1.5 W	O 10	WSH +110
Jun 29th	@LAA	L 2-8	-1.5 L	O 9	LAA +100

Josiah Gray
SP
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out
Cade Cavalli
SP
Cavalli is out with elbow
Out
DJ Herz
SP
Herz is out with elbow
Out

Tanner Houck
SP
Houck is out with arm
Out
Patrick Sandoval
SP
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
SP
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Masataka Yoshida
LF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Giolito, P	108	7.2	7	1
LJ.Wilson, P	4	0.1	0	0
RG.Whitlock, P	17	1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Duran, LF	2-5	1	0	3
1N.Eaton, LF	0-1	0	0	0
2R.Anthony, DH	2-3	1	0	0
3A.Toro, 1B	2-5	1	0	1
4C.Narvaez, C	2-6	1	0	0
5W.Abreu, RF	0-4	2	0	1
6T.Story, SS	4-5	3	1	4
7M.Mayer, 3B	2-5	1	0	1
8C.Rafaela, CF	1-5	1	0	1
9D.Hamilton, 2B	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Soroka, P	93	4	6	7
RZ.Brzykcy, P	29	1	2	2
LA.Chafin, P	13	1	0	0
RR.Loutos, P	33	2	1	2
RE.Salazar, P	12	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1C.Abrams, SS	1-3	1	0
2J.Wood, LF	0-2	0	0
2A.Call, LF	0-1	0	0
3L.Garcia, 2B	0-3	0	1
4N.Lowe, 1B	1-3	0	0
5J.Bell, DH	1-4	0	0
6B.House, 3B	0-4	1	0
7D.Lile, RF	1-4	0	1
8K.Ruiz, C	1-4	0	0
9J.Young, CF	1-3	0	0