Rays vs. Yankees Odds & Betting Predictions - April 21, 2024

Rays at Yankees

5:35 pm • BSSUN

Tampa Bay Rays

47-36

4 - 5

New York Yankees

47-35

pitcher		team	era	w-l
L.Gil			3.50	15-7
A.Civale			5.07	2-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Rays 47-36	+1.5-185	o8-115	+110
Yankees 47-35	-1.5+155	u8-105	-130

Sunday 5:35 p.m.

April 21, 2024

Yankee StadiumBronx

Under 8-105

... home team went under by 5 and now home team is fav or slight dogs Overall: 758-545-69,58% (ROI:12%) Season:6-3-0,67% (ROI:29%)

TB +100 (F5)

... f5 disappointing dogs Overall: 82-58-28,59% (ROI:23%) Season:2-2-1,50% (ROI:3%)

TB +110

NYY -0.5 (F5)+110

1.65u

Over 8-120

0.46u

NYY -125

0.5u

Superbook. Bet to -137

L.Gil u6.5 Ks-138

0.5u

Ballpark pal projects 5.22 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -191 giving value to this number

NYY -130

0.77u

Under 4.5 (F5)-110

1.1u

A.Civale u5.5 Ks-140

0.89u

L.Gil u15.5 Outs-145

1.45u

Gil just doesn’t hit the strike zone with regularity - a 56% strike percentage and all three games below 62%. If he qualified, he’d have the highest pitches per PA by a lot (4.56) and the second lowest strike percentage, out of 138 pitchers. Has yet to finish 5 this season - bullpen in decent shape after today, and his innings are being monitored after missing most of last season.

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Featured Insight
Yankees left-handed hitters have struck out just 12% against RHP over the last week -- second lowest in MLB. Rays RPs have a strikeout rate of just 10% vs left-handed batters over the last week -- lowest in MLB.

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The Yankees are 58-15 (.795) when they've hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .690.

Anthony Volpe has an OPS of just .686 since last season -- eighth worst in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Pete Fairbanks has allowed an OPS of just .545 (220 PAs) since last season -- 11th best among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Luis Gil has walked 9 of 38 right-handed batters (24%) this season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 8% -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 34% (19/55) against Aaron Civale this season -- 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% -- 93rd Percentile.

Aaron Civale has thrown elevated pitches 58% of the time (52/89) on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% -- 100th Percentile.

Luis Gil has walked 14 of 61 batters (23%) this season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 8% -- 0 Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Yankees are 17-23 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Yankees' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 14 of Yankees' 42 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	39-43	22-20	17-23	35-39	4-4
Rays	44-39	22-28	22-11	19-24	24-14

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Yankees	30-50-2	14-28	16-22-2	27-46-1	3-4-1
Rays	34-46-3	19-28-3	15-18	14-26-3	19-19

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Yankees	47-35	25-17	22-18	45-29	2-6
Rays	47-36	27-23	20-13	26-17	20-18

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 20th	TB	L 0-2	-1.5 L	U 9	TB -125
Apr 19th	TB	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 8.5	NYY -182
Apr 17th	@TOR	W 6-4	-1.5 W	O 8.5	NYY -102
Apr 16th	@TOR	L 4-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	TOR -102
Apr 15th	@TOR	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 8.5	TOR -105

Alex Faedo
RP
Faedo is out with shoulder
Out
Shane McClanahan
SP
McClanahan is out with triceps
Out
Richie Palacios
LF
Palacios is out with knee
Out
Ha-Seong Kim
SS
Kim is out with shoulder
Out
Jonny DeLuca
CF
DeLuca is out with shoulder
Out

Gerrit Cole
SP
Cole is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Luis Gil
SP
Gil is out with back
Out
JT Brubaker
SP
Brubaker is out with ribs
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Civale, P	104	4.2	5	5
RP.Maton, P	6	0.1	1	0
RE.Ramirez, P	35	3	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1Y.Diaz, DH	0-5	0	0
2R.Arozarena, CF	0-4	0	0
3R.Palacios, LF	1-3	1	0
3H.Ramirez, PH	0-1	0	0
4I.Paredes, 3B	0-2	1	0
5A.Shenton, 1B	0-3	0	0
6A.Rosario, RF	2-4	1	2
7C.Mead, 2B	1-3	0	1
8B.Rortvedt, C	0-4	0	0
9J.Caballero, SS	1-4	1	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Gil, P	97	5.2	9	0
RL.Weaver, P	20	1.1	1	0
RD.Santana, P	27	1	1	3
LV.Gonzalez, P	23	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1A.Volpe, SS	0-5	0	0
2J.Soto, RF	0-4	1	0
3A.Judge, CF	1-4	0	0
4G.Stanton, DH	0-2	1	0
5A.Rizzo, 1B	1-3	1	1
6G.Torres, 2B	1-3	1	0
7A.Verdugo, LF	3-4	1	2
8J.Trevino, C	1-4	0	1
9O.Cabrera, 3B	2-4	0	1