Rays vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2022

Rays at Guardians

10:10 pm • BSGL

Tampa Bay Rays

0-0

1 - 2

Cleveland Guardians

4-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
T.McKenzie			2.96	11-11
T.Glasnow			1.35	0-0

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Rays 0-0	+1.5-210	o6-118	+112
Guardians 4-6	-1.5+180	u6+102	-132

Wednesday 10:10 p.m.

September 28, 2022

Progressive FieldCleveland

T. Glasnow u3.5 Ks-160

Just returning, will be limited vs a team that doesnt strikeout

TB +110

0.5u

Wynn. Bet to +105. Would make no sense for Clase, Hentges or Karinchak to pitch tonight. Rays full bullpen likely available

T. McKenzie u19.5 Pitching Outs-110

DraftKings. CLE is locked into the 3rd seed for the playoffs, there is no reason to push McKenzie far (especially with it supposed to be chilly tonight) he’s already at ~40 IP over his career high. Tampa is a patient team and should be able to drive his pitch count up.

Under 6.5-118

0.42u

TB +110

Fanduel 11:47 am EST. Not just picking on the Guardians or Mackenzie, who came through big for me on this take from the NY Post in April https://nypost.com/2022/04/08/mlb-picks-athletics-guardians-win-totals-are-worth-betting/ . Article:

T. Glasnow o3.5 Ks+115

0.2u

Glasnow is back! He averages about 1 K per 10 pitches. Expecting 45-50 pitches today. I think the juice should be flipped - He just struck out 6 guys in 45 pitches in AAA. Have him around 4.4 Ks.

Rays-Guardians: How to Bet Glasnow's Return
Nick Martin•
Sep 28, 2022 UTC

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The Guardians are 24-7 (.774) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season -- 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Taylor Walls is batting just .173 this season -- fourth worst among hitters with at least 229 total PA's-- first Percentile. Left handed batters are hitting just .191 (51-for-267) against Triston McKenzie this season -- tied for sixth best among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP-- 94th Percentile.

Triston McKenzie allowed a batting average of just .171 vs right-handed batters (10th best)-- 83rd Percentile and .304 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (10th worst among qualified SPs)-- 18th Percentile.

Triston McKenzie has a strike rate of 75% (142/189) -- 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% -- 98th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 41-40 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Guardians' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	83-78	42-38	41-40	48-50	34-27
Rays	89-73	45-36	44-37	32-36	55-34

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	67-83-11	38-38-4	29-45-7	45-46-7	21-36-4
Rays	68-88-6	36-40-5	32-48-1	29-38-1	36-48-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	92-69	50-30	42-39	63-35	28-33
Rays	80-82	42-39	38-43	36-32	42-47

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 27th	TB	L 5-6	-1.5 L	O 6.5	TB -155
Sep 25th	@TEX	W 10-4	-1.5 W	O 8	CLE -136
Sep 24th	@TEX	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 8	CLE -130
Sep 24th	@TEX	W 6-3	+1.5 W	O 7.5	CLE +108
Sep 23rd	@CWS	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 7	CLE -149

Shane Bieber
P
Bieber is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Shane McClanahan
P
McClanahan is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Glasnow, P	50	3	3	1
LG.Cleavinger, P	21	1	2	0
RC.Faucher, P	33	1.2	2	0
LB.Raley, P	3	0.1	1	0
LC.Poche, P	13	1	3	0
RJ.Adam, P	22	1	2	0
RP.Fairbanks, P	15	1	1	0
RJ. Guerra, P	2	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1M.Margot, RF	1-5	0	0
2R.Arozarena, LF	0-4	0	0
3W. Franco, SS	0-4	0	0
4H.Ramirez, DH	0-4	0	0
5J. Choi, 1B	2-3	1	0
5M.Mastrobuoni, PR	0-1	0	0
5M.Mastrobuoni, 2B	0-1	0	0
6I.Paredes, 3B	1-3	0	0
6I.Paredes, 1B	1-3	0	0
6I.Paredes, 3B	1-3	0	0
7C.Bethancourt, C	1-4	0	1
8T.Walls, 2B	0-1	0	0
8T.Walls, 3B	0-1	0	0
8J.Aranda, PH	0-1	0	0
8J.Aranda, 1B	0-1	0	0
9J.Siri, CF	1-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.McKenzie, P	88	6	6	1
LS.Hentges, P	20	0.1	1	0
RE.Morgan, P	16	1.2	1	0
RE.Clase, P	13	1	2	0
RJ.Karinchak, P	15	1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	2-4	0	0	0
2T.Freeman, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Ramirez, DH	0-4	0	0	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
5O. González, RF	0-3	1	0	0
6A.Gimenez, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
7G.Arias, 3B	1-3	1	1	1
8W.Brennan, CF	1-3	0	0	0
9L.Maile, C	0-3	0	0	0
9A.Rosario, PH	1-1	0	0	1