The weekend is almost here, and that's great news for us.
We've been rolling the last few weekends, and I've found three starters who are primed to begin this one on the right foot.
So, let's dive into our top MLB player props for Friday, June 28.
MLB Player Props Tonight
- Albert Suarez Under 15.5 Outs (-125, BetRivers)
- Charlie Morton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120, BetRivers)
- Logan Webb Under 5.5 Strikouts (-136, FanDuel)
34-year-old Albert Suarez has been thrust into a big role in the backend of the Orioles' rotation.
While he's pitched to a 2.70 ERA on the season, that's about to change tonight.
Suarez is due for significant regression, as he doesn't miss bats and has a ground-ball rate in the 15th percentile among all qualified pitchers.
It also doesn't help that he's facing the Rangers, who are still very dangerous despite their struggles this season.
On top of all this, we've only seen Suarez pitch past the fifth inning in one of his nine starts this year.
So, with regression looming, count on him leaving this one before the sixth.
Pick: Albert Suarez Under 15.5 Outs (-125)
Time has appeared to catch up to 40-year-old Charlie Morton this season, but Ol' Uncle Charlie can turn back the clock tonight against the Pirates.
Morton's peripheral stats aren't great, but he's still been able to generate strikeouts. His strikeout rate is only down 1.5% from last season, but his numbers show that he's due to pick up, and that should begin tonight with an excellent matchup in front of him.
He'll face a Pirates lineup that ranks fifth in strikeout rate against righties.
With Morton averaging a strikeout per inning and owning an above-average swinging-strike rate, we should see him eclipse this total.
Pick: Charlie Morton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Logan Webb is arguably the game's best ground-ball pitcher, and has been for the last two years.
However, we've seen him take a small step back from last year, and the difference is in his ability to generate swings and misses.
Webb's strikeout rate is down 1.8% from last season, and his whiff rate ranks in the 10th percentile. While he does welcome contact, the issue is that nearly all of it has been hard.
He has the worst hard-hit rate allowed in the majors, and that's not a stat you want to take into a matchup against the Dodgers.
The Dodgers have the fourth-best wRC+ against righties and rank 24th in strikeout rate against them over their last 30 games.
We've seen Webb go under this total in 59% of his starts this year, and that includes two outings against the Dodgers already.
Look for Webb to make it a hat trick as he stays under again tonight.
