Phillies vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 2, 2023

Phillies at Brewers

12:10 am • BSWI

Philadelphia Phillies

26-18

5 - 7

Milwaukee Brewers

21-24

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Peralta			3.86	12-10
Z.Wheeler			3.61	13-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Phillies 26-18	-1.5+140	o7.5-115	-120
Brewers 21-24	+1.5-170	u7.5-105	+100

Saturday 12:10 a.m.

September 02, 2023

American Family FieldMilwaukee

N.Castellanos o0.5 Hits-157

PHI -115

Z.Wheeler u18.5 Outs-138

0.25u

Via @SBK5065

Z.Wheeler o17.5 Outs-145

0.69u

Z.Wheeler o17.5 Outs-130

Full write-up on the way…

MIL -102

1.08u

Available at FanDuel. Freddy Peralta has been on an absolute heater recently, and I think the market is a bit slow to catch up. Over his past 10 starts, Peralta has been throwing more changeups. In that time, he has a 2.81 SIERA with a 38.8% strikeout rate. His hard-hit rate isn't all that bad at 35.9%, either. The Phillies are a tough offense, but Peralta had 11 strikeouts against the Rangers two starts ago. The Brewers' offense is much worse than the Phillies', and that matters plenty here. But the Brewers' bullpen is just as good as the Phillies', and the Brewers have some of the best defense in baseball. I've got the Brewers at 55.8% to win, up from 50.5%.

PHI -116

FanDuel 11:54.

PHI -110 (F5)

0.55u

Bet to -125

Featured Insight
Brewers have struck out 23% over the last week -- 10th-highest in MLB. PhilliesRPs have a strikeout rate of 25% over the last week -- eighth-highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Brewers have won 57% of their games that have been decided by one run or less over the last two weeks -- tied for fifth-best in MLB. Phillies have won just 45% of their games that have been decided by one run or less over the last two weeks -- eighth-worst in MLB.

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The Brewers are 40-25 (.615) after a home loss since last season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .517.

30% of Bryson Stott strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- 11th highest in MLB-- 92nd Percentile. 38% of Freddy Peralta's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- ninth highest among qualified SPs-- 85th Percentile.

36% of Alec Bohm strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- third highest in MLB-- 98th Percentile. 38% of Freddy Peralta's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- ninth highest among qualified SPs-- 85th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 13-12 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Brewers' 20 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	23-22	10-10	13-12	12-9	10-13
Phillies	22-22	11-12	11-10	17-19	5-3

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	16-26-3	7-12-1	9-14-2	7-13-1	9-12-2
Phillies	20-23-1	13-10	7-13-1	17-18-1	3-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	21-24	12-8	9-16	14-7	6-17
Phillies	26-18	15-8	11-10	22-14	4-4

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 30th	@CHC	L 2-3	-1.5 L	U 7	CHC -120
Aug 30th	@CHC	L 0-1	+1.5 W	U 6.5	CHC +110
Aug 29th	@CHC	W 6-2	+1.5 W	U 9	MIL +108
Aug 27th	SD	W 10-6	+1.5 W	O 9	MIL -105
Aug 26th	SD	W 5-4	-1.5 L	O 8.5	MIL -144

Jose Quintana
P
Quintana is out with shoulder
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Blake Perkins
OF
Perkins is out with leg
Out
Garrett Mitchell
OF
Mitchell is out with oblique
Out
Aaron Ashby
P
Ashby is out with oblique
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RZ.Wheeler, P	102	6	10	3
LG.Soto, P	15	1	2	0
LJ.Alvarado, P	23	0.1	0	1
RJ.Hoffman, P	22	0.2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, DH	1-4	1	1	1
2T.Turner, SS	1-4	1	1	3
3B.Harper, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
4N.Castellanos, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5B.Stott, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
6A.Bohm, 3B	0-3	1	0	0
7J.Realmuto, C	1-3	1	0	0
8B.Marsh, CF	1-3	1	0	1
9J.Cave, LF	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P	94	6	10	1
LH.Milner, P	14	1	1	0
RJ.Payamps, P	17	0.2	1	3
RD.Williams, P	20	1.1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Yelich, LF	0-4	1	0	0
2W.Contreras, C	2-4	2	0	0
3C.Santana, 1B	2-3	2	0	0
4S.Frelick, CF	0-3	0	0	0
4S.Frelick, RF	0-3	0	0	0
4T.Taylor, PH	0-0	1	0	1
4T.Taylor, RF	0-0	1	0	1
5W.Adames, SS	1-4	1	1	3
6R.Tellez, DH	0-2	0	0	0
6O.Miller, PH	0-2	0	0	0
6O.Miller, DH	0-2	0	0	0
7M.Canha, RF	1-3	0	0	0
7J.Wiemer, CF	0-0	0	0	0
8B.Turang, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
9A.Monasterio, 3B	1-3	0	0	0