Padres vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - May 23, 2025

No time for a full write up, but I realize he’s one of the top K pitchers in MLB history. Due to a handful of underlying factors I’m projecting this closer to -140

Better team on road vs team returning home Overall: 295-268-0,52% (ROI:15%) Season:3-1-0,75% (ROI:69%)

Acuna’s back. MVP energy incoming – hit .400 in rehab, 2 HRs in 6 games. Braves offense gets instant jolt. Truist Park boost: 15-7 home record, crowd will be buzzing. Padres in a tailspin – 6 straight Ls, just 9 total runs in that stretch. Chris Sale heating up – 2.02 ERA last 6 starts, 48 Ks in 35.2 IP. Dominated BOS in last outing (7 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks). Extra rest helps: 6.2 scoreless vs CIN on 6 days’ rest. Career vs SD: 4-0, 1.91 ERA in 5 starts. Braves get clear edge on the mound. Nick Pivetta solid overall, but shaky away – 5.70 ERA last 5 road starts. Roughed up at COL (13.50 ERA). Braves offense poised to exploit. Acuna’s spark + Padres’ slump + Sale’s form = strong lean ATL. Revenge game after getting swept to open season.

Braves haven’t been good to me this year when I take them but feel like this is a great spot for them today. Ace on the mound plus Acuna coming back should be a good morale boost plus he obviously boosts their lineup. Braves are also 15-7 at home this year. Pivetta has a huge difference in home/road splits with a 1.44 ERA at home but a 5.21 road ERA. Padres are on a 6 game losing streak and are 11-13 on the road this year compared to 16-8 at home so not as great on the road

Padres' active roster has an 18.6% strikeout rate against lefties this year. It's 18.4% if you add in last year's data to expand the sample. Have Sale projected at 6.35 strikeouts as a result.

Acuna back. Bet to -157