Orioles vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - July 21, 2025

Wind-In First 5 Unders (***) Overall: 312-200-32,61% (ROI:17%) Season:24-6-0,80% (ROI:52%)

Have a slight lean on the under here as I’m projecting this closer to 8.2. Backing Sugano is scary given he’s a pitch-to-contact player but he limits walks and this Guardians offense is potentially a bottom-5 offense. Trusting Bibee to slow down the Orioles as he has a 4.29 ERA but a 3.64 xERA under it. Let’s roll the dice here.

Game 1 Overs ( O/U 8-8.5 ) 95-48-3 (66.43%) 26.28% ROI 2 Straight Overs + Underdog Previous Game 51-23 (68.92%) 31.57% ROI Dan Bellino Ump Trends 7-1 to the over with the line between 8-8.5 in 2025 75-34 to the over when the home team is favored

Small to 8.5 (-105)

Normally, I wouldn't touch this disgusting Orioles team, but Henderson has good numbers vs CLE and Bibee. In his career, Henderson is batting .500 vs Bibee, and against CLE, he has hit this line in 8/L10 games. Over his last 10 games, he has cashed this line in 7/10. Bibee has pitched decently well this year, but his three main pitches are the fastball, sinker, and cutter. All three of these pitches Henderson holds a wOBA well above average. Good history in the matchup and a favorable pitch mix are my key factors to backing Henderson today.