Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - June 11, 2025

Follow @PicksOffice on X. Insane stat hiding behind Logan Evans’ ERA – .358 xwOBA, 38.5% hard hit rate, 33% line drive rate (2nd highest in MLB). Arizona thrives vs cutters & sinkers, Evans' two go-to pitches. Carroll/Naylor match up perfectly. Dbacks red hot at home – walked off Game 1 with Naylor’s grand slam, offense clicking. Seattle’s bullpen reeling – 5.23 ERA last 2 weeks, 1.52 WHIP. If Evans exits early, Arizona’s depth + home momentum take over. Seattle ice cold – lost 6 of last 7, offense ranks near bottom at .239 BA. Pfaadt trending up, 2 ER in last start, owns better Chase Field splits. Mariners struggle vs sliders, chase a ton – plays right into Pfaadt’s hands.

PX

Given out last night in the VIP Discord and taken on Novig Think this is a perfect spot to back Pfaadt on a bounce back game here at home. Pfaadt is coming off back to back bad starts in which he was pulled early. However, he gets a good matchup today at home vs the Mariners who rank 28th in Average, OBP, OPS and 24th in wRC+ over the last month. Aside from a 0 outs start vs Washington, Pfaddt has been great at home. He went 6+ innings in 5/6 home starts. He also allowed less than 3 runs and struck out 5+ in 4/6 home games. The Diamondbacks blew a 4-0 lead in yesterday’s game and had to use 6 arms in a walk off win in extra innings. They would love to have Pfaadt return to his 2025 form and give them a quality start here. With a buy low spot of just 15.5 outs, I like Pfaadt to go at least 5.1 IP here at home.

Bet to 9 (+100)

Tough spot for Woo (5 barrels L2 starts) with a park downgrade against an offense that murders fastballs, Pfaadt batters from both sides > .350 wOBA this year, 6.95 xERA - ARI 120/123 wRC+ Hm/v RHP, SEA 117/111 - ARI pen estimators third worst L30 days & Martinez just left w/ injury again.