Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - April 7, 2023

Dodgers at Diamondbacks

2:10 am • BSAZ

Los Angeles Dodgers

56-34

5 - 2

Arizona Diamondbacks

44-45

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Kelly			3.29	12-8
D.May			2.63	4-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Dodgers 56-34	-1.5-102	o9+100	-160
Diamondbacks 44-45	+1.5-118	u9-120	+130

Friday 2:10 a.m.

April 07, 2023

Chase FieldPhoenix

D.May o4.5 Ks-148

May only struck out 4 in his opening start and while the 9.5% swinging strike rate is a bit of a concern, I think this is a great time to invest in his K potential. He opted to throw his 4 seam fastball at a much higher rate than his sinker which will help get ahead in the count and boost his K rate. His slurve is downright filthy and is an excellent put away pitch for right handed batters. His cutter is a nice weapon to have against left handed batters. The DBacks have 6 LHB in their lineup today which doesn’t seem ideal, but May has a higher K% against lefties in his career. I’m projecting this closer to -210 and prefer taking the over 4.5, but I still like over 5.5 at +130 if you only have access to that number.

F.Freeman o1.5 Total Bases-119

0.5u

Over 9-105

1.05u

ARI +1.5-125

1.25u

ARI o3.5-120

M.Kelly o4.5 Ks-104

1.04u

Only 4 Ks vs Dodgers in 1st start, but did draw 12 whiffs, and it was his wildness that cost him (4 walks, and a 57% strike rate). I expect both to regress towards his mean in his first home start (where he’s traditionally had more success). Dodgers profile to K a bit more this season, and Kelly did clear this in 15/17 home starts last season. 74 pitches first start - should be good for 90.

LAD -152

ARI +139

0.6u

ARI +1.5-124

0.62u

Over 8.5-109

0.52u

Buying out of my Under 8.5 at a very small loss (0.02u)

Under 8.5+100

0.5u

EDIT: Looks like the roof will be open (h/t @FreelanceBBall on Twitter, give Matt a follow he knows ball) Going to try to find a buyout price at -110 or better Projection only 8.63 with roof open so you can ride it but I’m trying to cash out or buy out. Will post a new entry on the Over when I do

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The Dodgers are just 1-3 (.250) when underdogs since the 2022 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.

The Diamondbacks are just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 64-6 (.914) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.

The Dodgers are 5-41 (.109) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .046.

32% of Will Smith strikeouts were looking last season -- tied for 14th highest in MLB-- 90th Percentile. 32% of Merrill Kelly strikeouts were looking last season -- fifth highest among qualified SPs-- 91st Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Diamondbacks are 22-19 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 24 of Diamondbacks' 47 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	43-45	21-26	22-19	26-34	17-11
Dodgers	42-48	22-27	20-21	35-42	7-6

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Diamondbacks	47-38-3	24-20-3	23-18	33-24-3	14-14
Dodgers	49-38-3	29-17-3	20-21	42-32-3	7-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	44-45	23-24	21-20	31-29	13-15
Dodgers	56-34	33-16	23-18	50-27	6-7

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 4th	@SD	W 8-6	+1.5 W	O 7	ARI +130
Apr 4th	@SD	L 4-5	+1.5 W	O 8.5	SD +115
Apr 2nd	@LAD	W 2-1	+1.5 W	U 9	ARI +164
Apr 2nd	@LAD	L 1-10	+1.5 L	O 7.5	LAD +220
Apr 1st	@LAD	W 2-1	+1.5 W	U 7.5	ARI +164

Michael Kopech
RP
Kopech is out with arm
Out
Michael Grove
RP
Grove is out with shoulder
Out
River Ryan
SP
Ryan is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Gavin Stone
SP
Stone is out for season with shoulder
Out for Season
Roki Sasaki
SP
Sasaki is out with shoulder
Out

Jordan Montgomery
SP
Montgomery is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
John Curtiss
RP
Curtiss is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.May, P	83	6	5	1
LA.Vesia, P	15	0.1	0	1
RY.Almonte, P	13	0.2	0	0
RP.Bickford, P	21	1	2	0
RE.Phillips, P	15	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Betts, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
2F.Freeman, 1B	2-5	2	1	1
3W.Smith, C	1-4	1	0	0
4M.Muncy, 3B	0-3	2	0	0
5J.Martinez, DH	1-3	0	0	1
6D.Peralta, LF	0-4	0	0	0
7J.Outman, CF	2-3	0	0	1
8C.Taylor, SS	1-4	0	0	1
9J.Heyward, RF	0-1	0	0	0
9T.Thompson, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9T.Thompson, RF	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Kelly, P	99	5.2	4	4
LK.Nelson, P	13	1	1	1
RK.Ginkel, P	12	1.1	1	0
RC.Vargas, P	24	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Rojas, 3B	1-4	0	1
2K.Marte, 2B	1-4	0	0
3L.Gurriel, DH	0-4	0	0
4C.Walker, 1B	0-4	0	0
5C.Carroll, LF	0-4	0	0
5C.Carroll, CF	0-4	0	0
6J.McCarthy, RF	2-4	1	0
7G.Moreno, C	1-4	0	0
8A.Thomas, CF	0-1	0	0
8K. Lewis, PH	0-2	0	0
8K. Lewis, LF	0-2	0	0
9G.Perdomo, SS	0-1	1	0