Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - April 7, 2023

Dodgers at Diamondbacks

2:10 am • BSAZ

Los Angeles Dodgers

11-5

5 - 2

Arizona Diamondbacks

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Kelly			3.29	12-8
D.May			2.63	4-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Dodgers 11-5	-1.5-102	o9+100	-160
Diamondbacks 0-0	+1.5-118	u9-120	+130

Friday 2:10 a.m.

April 07, 2023

Chase FieldPhoenix

D.May o4.5 Ks-148

May only struck out 4 in his opening start and while the 9.5% swinging strike rate is a bit of a concern, I think this is a great time to invest in his K potential. He opted to throw his 4 seam fastball at a much higher rate than his sinker which will help get ahead in the count and boost his K rate. His slurve is downright filthy and is an excellent put away pitch for right handed batters. His cutter is a nice weapon to have against left handed batters. The DBacks have 6 LHB in their lineup today which doesn’t seem ideal, but May has a higher K% against lefties in his career. I’m projecting this closer to -210 and prefer taking the over 4.5, but I still like over 5.5 at +130 if you only have access to that number.

F.Freeman o1.5 Total Bases-119

0.5u

F.Freeman o1.5 Total Bases-120

$50.00

ARI o3.5-120

LAD o2.5 (F5)-110

$50.00

M.Kelly o4.5 Ks-104

1.04u

Only 4 Ks vs Dodgers in 1st start, but did draw 12 whiffs, and it was his wildness that cost him (4 walks, and a 57% strike rate). I expect both to regress towards his mean in his first home start (where he’s traditionally had more success). Dodgers profile to K a bit more this season, and Kelly did clear this in 15/17 home starts last season. 74 pitches first start - should be good for 90.

LAD -152

Over 8.5-109

0.52u

Buying out of my Under 8.5 at a very small loss (0.02u)

Under 8.5+100

0.5u

EDIT: Looks like the roof will be open (h/t @FreelanceBBall on Twitter, give Matt a follow he knows ball) Going to try to find a buyout price at -110 or better Projection only 8.63 with roof open so you can ride it but I’m trying to cash out or buy out. Will post a new entry on the Over when I do

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The Dodgers are just 1-3 (.250) when underdogs since the 2022 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.

The Diamondbacks are just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 64-6 (.914) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.

The Dodgers are 5-41 (.109) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .046.

32% of Will Smith strikeouts were looking last season -- tied for 14th highest in MLB-- 90th Percentile. 32% of Merrill Kelly strikeouts were looking last season -- fifth highest among qualified SPs-- 91st Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Diamondbacks are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 50 of Diamondbacks' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	82-80	37-44	45-36	37-48	43-31
Dodgers	81-79	42-38	39-41	74-67	7-11

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Diamondbacks	92-64-6	50-29-2	42-35-4	50-33-2	41-29-4
Dodgers	88-67-5	45-31-4	43-36-1	79-57-5	9-9

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	89-73	44-37	45-36	52-33	35-39
Dodgers	98-64	52-28	45-35	91-50	6-12

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 4th	@SD	W 8-6	+1.5 W	O 7	ARI +130
Apr 4th	@SD	L 4-5	+1.5 W	O 8.5	SD +115
Apr 2nd	@LAD	W 2-1	+1.5 W	U 9	ARI +164
Apr 2nd	@LAD	L 1-10	+1.5 L	O 7.5	LAD +220
Apr 1st	@LAD	W 2-1	+1.5 W	U 7.5	ARI +164

Clayton Kershaw
P
Kershaw is out with toe
Out
Dustin May
P
May is out with elbow
Out
Tony Gonsolin
P
Gonsolin is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Gavin Stone
P
Stone is out with shoulder
Out
Emmet Sheehan
P
Sheehan is out with arm
Out

Ryne Nelson
P
Nelson is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.May, P	83	6	5	1
LA.Vesia, P	15	0.1	0	1
RY.Almonte, P	13	0.2	0	0
RP.Bickford, P	21	1	2	0
RE.Phillips, P	15	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Betts, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
2F.Freeman, 1B	2-5	2	1	1
3W.Smith, C	1-4	1	0	0
4M.Muncy, 3B	0-3	2	0	0
5J.Martinez, DH	1-3	0	0	1
6D.Peralta, LF	0-4	0	0	0
7J.Outman, CF	2-3	0	0	1
8C.Taylor, SS	1-4	0	0	1
9J.Heyward, RF	0-1	0	0	0
9T. Thompson, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9T. Thompson, RF	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Kelly, P	99	5.2	4	4
LK.Nelson, P	13	1	1	1
RK.Ginkel, P	12	1.1	1	0
RC.Vargas, P	24	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Rojas, 3B	1-4	0	1
2K.Marte, 2B	1-4	0	0
3L.Gurriel, DH	0-4	0	0
4C.Walker, 1B	0-4	0	0
5C.Carroll, LF	0-4	0	0
5C.Carroll, CF	0-4	0	0
6J.McCarthy, RF	2-4	1	0
7G.Moreno, C	1-4	0	0
8A.Thomas, CF	0-1	0	0
8K. Lewis, PH	0-2	0	0
8K. Lewis, LF	0-2	0	0
9G.Perdomo, SS	0-1	1	0