Cubs vs. Rays Odds & Betting Predictions - June 12, 2024

Cubs at Rays

10:50 pm • MARQ

Chicago Cubs

30-20

4 - 3

Tampa Bay Rays

23-26

pitcher		team	era	w-l
A.Civale			5.07	2-6
J.Assad			3.74	7-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Cubs 30-20	-1.5+164	o8-105	-102
Rays 23-26	+1.5-196	u8-115	-116

Wednesday 10:50 p.m.

June 12, 2024

Tropicana FieldSt. Petersburg

CHC +100

J.Assad u16.5 Outs-113

Assad is under this line in 7/13 starts, but he’s only finished 6 IP 3 times. He’s on a short leash the third time through (.892 OPS allowed). And he’s regressed over his L4 starts, with a 5.66 ERA. The Rays have 8 guys in the lineup today who see above average pitches per PA (everyone except Lowe). Assad is at 4.03 (20th / 126), with a 61.9% strike rate (109th / 126). Cubs pen also very rested.

Under 8-105

0.25u

Small to -115

TB -108

0.27u

Small to -120

TB -112 (F5)

0.25u

Small to -118

CHC -101

J.Assad o4.5 Ks-128

CHC +106

1.06u

Featured Insight
Cubs have a strikeout rate of 28% vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks -- tied for fourth highest in MLB. Rays left-handed hitters have struck out 31% against RHP over the last two weeks -- second highest in MLB.

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The Cubs are just 3-10 (.231) after a road win this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .461.

41% of Yandy Diaz strikeouts are looking this season -- fifth highest in MLB-- 97th Percentile. 43% of Javier Assad strikeouts are looking this season -- second highest among qualified SPs-- 98th Percentile.

29% of Yandy Diaz strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- 15th highest in MLB-- 87th Percentile. 38% of Javier Assad strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- fifth highest among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 40% (212/527) against Javier Assad this season -- lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% -- first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (61/201) against Aaron Civale this season -- 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% -- third Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 15% (5/33) against Aaron Civale -- 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% -- first Percentile.

8 of Javier Assad's 23 breaking pitch strikeouts (35%) have been backdoor this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Rays are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Rays are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Rays are 10-8 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Rays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 12 of Rays' 31 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	22-27	12-19	10-8	9-17	13-9
Cubs	26-24	13-12	13-12	17-14	9-10

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Rays	19-28-2	12-17-2	7-11	9-15-2	10-12
Cubs	29-18-3	16-8-1	13-10-2	17-12-2	12-6-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	23-26	13-18	10-8	12-14	11-11
Cubs	30-20	15-10	15-10	21-10	9-10

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 11th	CHC	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 7.5	TB -135
Jun 10th	BAL	L 2-5	+1.5 L	U 7	BAL +116
Jun 9th	BAL	L 2-9	+1.5 L	O 7.5	BAL +122
Jun 8th	BAL	L 0-5	+1.5 L	U 8	BAL +114
Jun 7th	BAL	L 3-6	+1.5 L	O 8.5	BAL -110

Alex Faedo
RP
Faedo is out with shoulder
Out
Shane McClanahan
SP
McClanahan is out with triceps
Out
Jake Mangum
RF
Mangum is out with groin
Out
Richie Palacios
LF
Palacios is out with knee
Out
Ha-Seong Kim
SS
Kim is out with shoulder
Out
Jonny DeLuca
CF
DeLuca is out with shoulder
Out

Drew Pomeranz
RP
Pomeranz is out with elbow
Out
Justin Steele
SP
Steele is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Assad, P	90	4.2	4	2
RT.Miller, P	16	1.1	2	0
LD.Smyly, P	26	2	3	0
RH.Neris, P	17	1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Morel, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
1D.Bote, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
2M.Busch, 1B	2-3	0	0	0
2P.Wisdom, PH	0-0	1	0	0
2Y.Gomes, C	0-1	0	0	0
3C.Bellinger, RF	2-5	1	1	3
3C.Bellinger, 1B	2-5	1	1	3
4S.Suzuki, DH	2-4	1	1	1
5I.Happ, LF	0-3	0	0	0
6N.Hoerner, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7D.Swanson, SS	0-4	0	0	0
8P.Crow-Armstrong, CF	1-4	0	0	0
9M.Amaya, C	0-2	0	0	0
9M.Tauchman, PH	0-2	0	0	0
9M.Tauchman, RF	0-2	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Civale, P	85	5.2	6	1
RK.Kelly, P	15	1	1	1
LG.Cleavinger, P	15	0.1	1	2
RP.Maton, P	17	1	0	0
LC.Poche, P	12	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1Y.Diaz, DH	1-5	0	0	0
2B.Lowe, 2B	0-5	0	0	0
3I.Paredes, 1B	2-4	0	0	1
4J.Lowe, RF	0-3	0	0	0
4R.Arozarena, PH	0-1	0	0	0
4R.Arozarena, LF	0-1	0	0	0
5J.Siri, CF	2-4	1	1	1
6R.Palacios, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6R.Palacios, RF	0-4	0	0	0
7J.Caballero, 3B	1-3	1	1	1
8B.Rortvedt, C	1-3	0	0	0
8J.DeLuca, PR	0-0	0	0	0
9T.Walls, SS	0-2	1	0	0