Cubs vs. Rays Odds & Betting Predictions - June 12, 2024

Cubs at Rays

10:50 pm • MARQ

Chicago Cubs

0-0

4 - 3

Tampa Bay Rays

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
A.Civale			5.07	2-6
J.Assad			3.74	7-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Cubs 0-0	-1.5+164	o8-105	-102
Rays 0-0	+1.5-196	u8-115	-116

Wednesday 10:50 p.m.

June 12, 2024

Tropicana FieldSt. Petersburg

CHC +100

J.Assad u16.5 Outs-113

Assad is under this line in 7/13 starts, but he’s only finished 6 IP 3 times. He’s on a short leash the third time through (.892 OPS allowed). And he’s regressed over his L4 starts, with a 5.66 ERA. The Rays have 8 guys in the lineup today who see above average pitches per PA (everyone except Lowe). Assad is at 4.03 (20th / 126), with a 61.9% strike rate (109th / 126). Cubs pen also very rested.

TB -112 (F5)

0.25u

Small to -118

Under 8-105

0.25u

Small to -115

TB -108

0.27u

Small to -120

J.Assad o4.5 Ks-128

Featured Insight
Cubs have a strikeout rate of 28% vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks -- tied for fourth highest in MLB. Rays left-handed hitters have struck out 31% against RHP over the last two weeks -- second highest in MLB.

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The Cubs are just 3-10 (.231) after a road win this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .461.

41% of Yandy Diaz strikeouts are looking this season -- fifth highest in MLB-- 97th Percentile. 43% of Javier Assad strikeouts are looking this season -- second highest among qualified SPs-- 98th Percentile.

29% of Yandy Diaz strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- 15th highest in MLB-- 87th Percentile. 38% of Javier Assad strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- fifth highest among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 40% (212/527) against Javier Assad this season -- lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% -- first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (61/201) against Aaron Civale this season -- 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% -- third Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 15% (5/33) against Aaron Civale -- 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% -- first Percentile.

8 of Javier Assad's 23 breaking pitch strikeouts (35%) have been backdoor this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Rays are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Rays are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Rays are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Rays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Rays' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	89-73	45-36	44-37	32-36	55-34
Cubs	79-83	36-45	43-38	33-50	45-32

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Rays	68-88-6	36-40-5	32-48-1	29-38-1	36-48-5
Cubs	75-81-6	34-46-1	41-35-5	40-39-4	34-41-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	80-82	42-39	38-43	36-32	42-47
Cubs	83-79	44-37	39-42	45-38	37-40

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 11th	CHC	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 7.5	TB -135
Jun 10th	BAL	L 2-5	+1.5 L	U 7	BAL +116
Jun 9th	BAL	L 2-9	+1.5 L	O 7.5	BAL +122
Jun 8th	BAL	L 0-5	+1.5 L	U 8	BAL +114
Jun 7th	BAL	L 3-6	+1.5 L	O 8.5	BAL -110

Jeffrey Springs
P
Springs is out with elbow
Out
Shane McClanahan
P
McClanahan is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Ben Brown
P
Brown is out with neck
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Assad, P	90	4.2	4	2
RT.Miller, P	16	1.1	2	0
LD.Smyly, P	26	2	3	0
RH.Neris, P	17	1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Morel, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
1D.Bote, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
2M.Busch, 1B	2-3	0	0	0
2P.Wisdom, PH	0-0	1	0	0
2Y.Gomes, C	0-1	0	0	0
3C.Bellinger, RF	2-5	1	1	3
3C.Bellinger, 1B	2-5	1	1	3
4S.Suzuki, DH	2-4	1	1	1
5I.Happ, LF	0-3	0	0	0
6N.Hoerner, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7D.Swanson, SS	0-4	0	0	0
8P.Crow-Armstrong, CF	1-4	0	0	0
9M.Amaya, C	0-2	0	0	0
9M.Tauchman, PH	0-2	0	0	0
9M.Tauchman, RF	0-2	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Civale, P	85	5.2	6	1
RK.Kelly, P	15	1	1	1
LG.Cleavinger, P	15	0.1	1	2
RP.Maton, P	17	1	0	0
LC.Poche, P	12	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1Y.Diaz, DH	1-5	0	0	0
2B.Lowe, 2B	0-5	0	0	0
3I.Paredes, 1B	2-4	0	0	1
4J.Lowe, RF	0-3	0	0	0
4R.Arozarena, PH	0-1	0	0	0
4R.Arozarena, LF	0-1	0	0	0
5J.Siri, CF	2-4	1	1	1
6R.Palacios, LF	0-4	0	0	0
6R.Palacios, RF	0-4	0	0	0
7J.Caballero, 3B	1-3	1	1	1
8B.Rortvedt, C	1-3	0	0	0
8J.DeLuca, PR	0-0	0	0	0
9T.Walls, SS	0-2	1	0	0