Cubs vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - May 21, 2025

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Meyer just misses Club 17 status with a +15.8 priority score, but I still see good value on his under here. He’s been sharp (6+ Ks in 6 of 9 starts) with a 27.3% K rate, but I have his expected K% closer to 24.7%, and he’s benefitted from a fairly soft schedule. Meyer has reverse splits, striking out LHBs at a higher rate — and so far, 53% of his opponents have been lefties. The Cubs are only starting 3 LHB today, which could lower his strikeout upside. His best weapon is getting whiffs on pitches out of the zone (36% chase contact rate — one of the lowest among SPs), but the Cubs chase at the 6th-lowest rate and make contact at the 5th-highest rate when they do. His best chance for Ks will be vs. the 3-6 hitters first time through — so don’t be surprised if he starts strong — but the 7-9 spots are tougher to strike out, and his K rate drops off sharply after the first time through the order. I project this closer to -145 to stay under. Bonus angle: live under after Swanson’s first PA.

Cubs just dropped 14 runs on 21 hits – tied season high. 2nd in MLB in runs/game (5.77), batting .261 with .336 OBP. Seiya Suzuki red-hot: 12 HR, 43 RBI, .808 OPS. Matt Shaw 4-for-9 since call-up. Hoerner hitting .293. Happ back adds depth. This lineup is rolling. Rookie Cade Horton (2-0) starts for CHC – 3R in 5 IP last outing, still finding rhythm but wins in both appearances. Faces Max Meyer (3-4, 4.47 ERA), who's bleeding runs: 7.16 ERA over last 3 starts, 18 ER in last 20.1 IP. Cubs offense too dangerous for a slumping arm. Marlins bullpen getting rocked – 5.40 ERA over last 3 vs Cubs' 2.86. MIA team ERA 5.37 (28th in MLB). Offense meh – 4.25 runs/game (15th), no consistency. CHC won 5 of last 6, 14-10 on road. Marlins just 3-8 last 11 overall. All signs point one way.

FD

Bet to -135