Cardinals vs. Yankees Odds & Betting Predictions - September 1, 2024

.tsa over vs bad away starters with wind help Overall: 510-367-50,58% (ROI:12%) Season:28-26-1,52% (ROI:2%)

Circa

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice With both starting pitchers having really struggled through the majority of this season, the over is very tantalizing. Miles Mikolas has been horrific on a consistent level this season, owning only a 16.8% strikeout rate and 16.2% whiff rate, with both being among the worst in the league. The inability to develop any sort of ground-ball generation, doing so only 42.2% of the time, exposes him to more risk than a pitcher who can suppress hard contact via grounders, especially in a hitter-friendly park like Yankee Stadium. Mikolas has a concerning 5.07 ERA against an xFIP of 4.04 over his final 55 innings, showing his struggles are not just bad luck. His two-strike miss rate is abysmal at 14% - ranking dead last for qualified starters- and a terrible 63.7% stranded rate adds salt to an already bad situation with runners in scoring position performance. All of those factors make it so that Mikolas is all set to give up runs in bunches to a Yankees lineup that has been lethal against right-handed pitching this season, posting a wRC+ of 143 since the All-Star break. On the other side, Nestor Cortes has not been sharp either, recording a 4.54 ERA with a WHIP of 1.21 over his last 39 2/3 innings. His 4.62 xFIP and 40% hard-hit rate in that time make him a decent tie to a Cardinals lineup that has been quite deep against left-handed pitching, posting a 111 wRC+ since the break. Only now, Cortés's results have been better at Yankee Stadium: his underlying metrics align with season-long struggles, and it's hard to have faith in his ability to keep this Cardinals offense down, especially sans Willson Contreras, who has an .882 OPS as a catcher against lefties this year. Given that both pitchers are in poor form, that both teams have strong offenses against the corresponding handedness of their opponent's starter and that Yankee Stadium is very hitter-friendly, 9 feels like far too low a total. Look for both offenses to take advantage of Mikolas and Cortes' vulnerabilities.

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