Astros vs. Tigers Odds & Betting Predictions - May 10, 2024

Astros at Tigers

10:40 pm • SCHN

Houston Astros

11-12

5 - 2

Detroit Tigers

8-13

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Mize			4.49	2-6
F.Valdez			2.91	15-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Astros 11-12	-1.5+114	o8-110	-148
Tigers 8-13	+1.5-135	u8-110	+124

Friday 10:40 p.m.

May 10, 2024

Comerica ParkDetroit

HOU -152

1.97u

Under 8.5-120

$41.67

J.Meyers u1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-135

0.74u

HOU -135

$1.00

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-106

0.53u

HOU -130

2.31u

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)+100

F.Valdez o4.5 Ks-170

F.Valdez o4.5 Ks-160

Ballpark pal projects 6.58 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -222 giving value to this number

DET o3.5 Team Total-120

1.2u

F.Valdez o5.5 Ks+126

Ballpark pal projects 6.58 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of +100 giving value to this number

DET +120 (F5)

1.2u

SPs very similar estimators & pitch modeling. DET 95/97 wRC+ Hm/vLHP, HOU 90/105. Both defenses are just about average, while bullpen estimators L30 days are virtually the same. With everything about even, shouldn't DET be small home favorites? Opt for better F5 price than full game.

Featured Insight
Opponents are hitting just .229 (267-for-1,167) against Astros RPs with RISP since the 2022 season -- fourth best in MLB. The Tigers are batting just .242 with RISP since the 2022 season -- fifth worst in MLB.

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The Astros are just 8-13 (.381) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Tigers are 40-14 (.741) when they've scored in the first inning since the 2023 season -- tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .615.

32% of Alex Bregman strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- eighth highest in MLB-- 93rd Percentile. 42% of Jason Foley strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- second highest among qualified RPs-- 99th Percentile.

Alex Bregman has an OPS of just .534 this season -- 12th worst in MLB-- fifth Percentile. Alex Lange has allowed an OPS of just .442 (60 PAs) this season -- 14th best among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Framber Valdez has allowed an OBP of just .254 (315 PA's) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season -- 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 -- 88th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Tigers are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Tigers are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Tigers are 32-49 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Tigers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 41 of Tigers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Tigers	73-89	41-40	32-49	49-64	24-23
Astros	82-80	37-44	45-36	43-60	39-18

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Tigers	83-72-7	41-35-5	42-37-2	58-49-6	24-22-1
Astros	72-83-7	36-43-2	36-40-5	45-56-2	25-27-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Tigers	87-75	46-35	41-40	64-49	23-24
Astros	87-75	46-35	41-40	56-47	31-26

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 8th	@CLE	L 4-5	+1.5 W	O 7.5	CLE +102
May 7th	@CLE	W 11-7	+1.5 W	O 8.5	DET +120
May 6th	@CLE	L 1-2	-1.5 L	U 7	CLE +100
May 5th	@NYY	L 2-5	+1.5 L	O 6.5	NYY +114
May 4th	@NYY	L 3-5	+1.5 L	O 7.5	NYY +142

Reese Olson
SP
Olson is out with shoulder
Out
Ty Madden
SP
Madden is out with shoulder
Out

Hayden Wesneski
RP
Wesneski is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LF.Valdez, P	103	7	4	2
RB.Abreu, P	13	1	3	0
LJ.Hader, P	17	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	1-4	1	0	0
2K.Tucker, RF	1-3	2	1	1
3Y.Alvarez, LF	2-4	1	0	1
4J.Pena, SS	2-4	0	0	1
5J.Singleton, 1B	0-4	1	0	0
6A.Bregman, 3B	1-4	0	0	1
7Y.Diaz, DH	0-3	0	0	1
8V.Caratini, C	1-3	0	0	0
9J.Meyers, CF	0-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Mize, P	88	6	2	1
RW.Vest, P	15	1	0	0
LA.Chafin, P	8	0	0	3
RJ.Foley, P	16	1	0	0
RA.Faedo, P	10	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1A.Ibanez, 2B	2-5	1	0
2M.Vierling, 3B	1-4	0	2
3M.Canha, DH	0-4	0	0
4R.Greene, LF	1-4	0	0
5S.Torkelson, 1B	1-3	0	0
6W.Perez, CF	1-4	0	0
7R.Vilade, RF	0-4	0	0
8J.Baez, SS	0-4	0	0
9J.Rogers, C	1-2	1	0