NFL Props

Tailing @nick_giffen

Blake Corum Longest Rush under 13.5 yards (-125 at Bet365, -130 at BetMGM), or under 12.5 (-115 at DK/BetRivers) This line might seem low for Corum, who has a median longest rush of 15 yards since his boost in playing time and rushing volume in Week 7. However, since RG Kevin Dotson went down early in Week 16 against Seattle, Corum has had just one rushing attempt out of 29 go for longer than 9 yards, and that came on a run to the left end, where Carolina has actually been strongest of all rushing directions. That comes despite 19 of those attempts coming against rush defenses ranked similarly to Carolina, in the mid 20s in defensive rush DVOA. The loss of Dotson hurts Corum, who attempts the plurality of his rushes to the right side. In particular, this hurts Corum on runs up right middle, right guard, and even to right tackle where backup guard Justin Dedich has struggled in run blocking, posting a best run block grade of just 62.7 in three games filling in for Dotson, compared to Dotson's 89.3 season-long grade. Corum also tends to have runs come from inside the 12 yard line at a higher rate, with 13.1% of his rushing attempts coming from too close to even clear this prop, which is a couple percentage points above the league average. There's also the fact that Los Angeles could just focus more on their main man, Kyren Williams, in such a meaningful game, which could lead to fewer attempts overall. Certainly Corum could clear this on another run to the left or on the right end, but overall his chances should be reduced and I like him to stay under 13.5 here, and would also play under 12.5.

Speights is always a tricky projection because he’s not an every-down linebacker. He tends to play on early downs at a high rate and plays on 3rd/4th downs at a much lower rate. As a result, I expect him to be on the field for right around 85% of the Panthers’ run plays and just 62% of their pass plays. After doing a deeper dive, I noticed his snap % was very predictive when you look at the Rams’ margin of victory. In their 3 losses over the final 10 games, we saw Speights play his 3 highest snap % games, averaging 84% of snaps in those 3. However, in their 5 wins of 10+ points, he averaged just a 56% snap rate. This makes sense in theory because as the Rams play with a bigger lead, their opponent will likely pivot to a more pass-heavy, up-tempo style of play, the types of plays Speights usually sits out as they have an extra DB on the field in place of him. However, if they are trailing, their opponent will likely be using a more run-heavy, heavier personnel approach. So I’m expecting his playing time to be on the lower end here with the Rams as 10-point road favorites. Sure, the Panthers could be very run heavy early in the game, especially with the potential for heavy rain and wind in the forecast. But if the Rams do build a 2-score lead, Carolina will be forced to throw more. I also found another factor that could lead to him being involved in fewer run tackles. He’s much more involved in outside runs. Looking at his run tackle % based on inside vs. outside runs, he shows a pretty strong correlation with outside runs. The Falcons run to the outside at by far the highest rate, and he racked up 6 tackles in run support in that game (a whopping 23% rate). In the 3 matchups against inside-run-heavy teams (NO/TB/CAR), he had just a 13% tackle rate. The reason he ended up with 7 tackles against the Panthers in Week 13 was due to the fact that the Panthers dominated time of possession, ran the ball 40 times, and it was a game the Rams lost, so his playing time was near a season high. It was basically the perfect storm and he still barely cleared this. Does this mean Speights won’t get 6+ tackles here? Of course not. But this is a matchup where I project his playing time to be a tad lower, Carolina’s inside-run tendencies (both Dowdle/Hubbard run inside at a top 7 rate) hurt him, and the return of Quentin Lake could ding him slightly as Speights’ run tackle rate has been about 2% lower with Lake on the field. In the end, I have him mixing in on ~3 run tackles and ~2 tackles on completions for a projection of 5.1 tackles (including the small chance he mixes in on a sack), with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5. Getting plus odds is nice here. He has a wide range of outcomes, but the fact that so many subtle factors point to him being closer to his floor makes this my favorite tackle prop from this game.

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Jared Verse made it known last year after losing to Philly in the playoffs that he never wanted to feel the pain of losing in the playoffs again…”I don’t want my teammates to feel like this again. I only want to look in their eyes & see anything but pure bliss & pure happiness & I’m going to do everything in my power to make sure that doesn’t happen again.” He was asked this week what he learned from his 1st playoff experience, “there’s gonna be one play that you have to take over like it has to be on you & you have to be your absolute best” I expect a huge game from him in this one especially with LA looking for revenge after losing to the Carolina in week 13. I think they correct their mistakes, stop the run & force CAR into more 3rd & longs which is where Verse can capitalize. Quentin Lake being back from injury will help a ton as well. Since week 14, LA ranks 2nd in pressure% & I don’t think CAR’s OLine will be able to contain their pass rush. CAR should have to drop back a ton in this game too as +10.5 point underdogs.