My NFL Week 3 picks are some of my favorites to bet. I call it "Kitchen Sink Week."
If Week 2 is about the overreactions, then Week 3 digs its heels in even more with a number of 0-2 teams already on the brink of a lost season.
It's not a great outlook for 0-2 teams with an 11.5% chance at making the playoffs since 1990, and just two of 32 such teams have made the postseason after starting 0-2 since it expanded to 14 teams in 2020. It gets more grim: Just one team since 2002 has made the playoffs after starting 0-3, so it's now or never for these teams.
I already covered the teams that have the best chance to bounce back from a rough start — we're on Titans +1500 to win the AFC South — but Week 3 is actually a great chance to back these teams.
Since 2010, teams that start the season 0-2 are 53-32-2 (62%) against the spread (ATS) when facing opponents with at least one win. That's a very simple but profitable trend, one that gets even stronger when the 0-2 team was favored in its last game, when the total is 42 or below, when facing a 1-1 team instead of 2-0, when the opponent failed to cover its last time out and any number of other sub-trends.
We've got nine 0-2 Kitchen Sink teams in 2024 — the Rams, Ravens, Giants, Colts, Panthers, Titans, Bengals, Jaguars, and Broncos — and that's the order I rank those squads on the best fit for Kitchen Sink trends with the Rams the best fit on the board.
I'm playing a handful of these Kitchen Sink teams in Week 3 — but the Rams are not the top choice on my card. Let's get to the picks, starting with my favorite Kitchen Sink angles.
NFL Week 3 Picks: Spread, Over/Under, Moneyline
Giants vs. Browns Pick Against Spread
If you're looking for a football reason to back the Giants, you'll be hard-pressed to find it. This is almost entirely a trends play and a bit of a fade of the Browns.
We already played the under when it was 40, so it's great to get almost a touchdown in what's expected to be a low-scoring game.
Have the Browns really played well enough to be touchdown favorites? The defense hasn't lived up to billing so far, just 12th in DVOA and bottom quarter of the league against the run, and Myles Garrett is already banged up. Deshaun Watson and the offense continue to struggle and could have issues with leaky protection against the one real New York strength: its defensive front.
But again, this is just an outstanding trends spot. Kitchen Sink teams are 71% ATS with a total below 42, 72% ATS when the opponent was an underdog in its previous game and 79% ATS when the opponent is scoring 18 or fewer points per game like the Browns. The Giants are also 0-2 ATS, triggering another number of trends for a buy-low spot.
Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones have been terrific ATS after a loss and as underdogs — Jones is 17-8 (68%) ATS as a road underdog.
Even the line itself is a bit of a giveaway. Road underdogs of 6-to-6.5 points are profitable both ATS and on the moneyline. Bettors playing the moneyline for such teams when the total is below 42 are seeing an outstanding 35% ROI, with eight of the nine such wins since 2010 by at least six points.
You'd think an underdog pulling an upset in a low total game would squeak out a victory, but history says otherwise. Think of this as betting against the Browns and not on the Giants. Put most of your bet against the spread, but don't stop there. Sprinkle a portion on Giants -5.5 at +630 (FanDuel).
Ravens vs. Cowboys Winner Prediction
The Ravens are my favorite Kitchen Sink team and my top play of the week. We don't get many chances to bet on an 0-2 Baltimore squad — this is the first time in a decade. This team is far too talented to go 0-3.
Both teams are desperate after shocking Week 2 losses, but doesn't this just feel like a classic late-afternoon Cowboys letdown spot? Dallas is a tremendous frontrunner but has had more than its fair share of ugly losses against top competition. Since the start of last season, we've seen losses to the 49ers (42-10), Bills (31-10), Packers (48-32) in the playoffs and now the Saints (44-19).
The Cowboys are much more top-heavy than Baltimore, and that makes them easier to attack and defend. CeeDee Lamb is the one real weapon on offense and is banged up, as is corner Trevon Diggs, whose CB partner DaRon Bland is already sidelined. Baltimore's defense will present a lot of sophisticated looks for Dak Prescott and a leaky offensive line.
Baltimore could have a big rushing game. Lamar Jackson is nearly undefeated against NFC teams who don't see his speed often, and this could be a great spot for Derrick Henry. The Cowboys defense ranks 31st in Rush DVOA this season.
The Kitchen Sink trends are stronger when the team is favored in the previous game (73% ATS) or if it scored 17 or more in its first two games (79% ATS) like Baltimore. They're also 70% ATS on public teams, and this is our most public Kitchen Sink team of the year with nearly two-thirds of the bets on the Ravens.
The single best Kitchen Sink signal is when the opponent is 1-1 and just lost in Week 2 like Dallas. When a 0-2 team faces an opponent on a one-game losing streak, it's 23-4-1 (85!) ATS.
That makes Baltimore -1 my top play of the week — but why play that at -110 when some books are offering the moneyline at a near identical price or shorter? That way we can cash a one-point win.
Not that it should be that close. Let's sprinkle part of our bet on Baltimore -13.5 at +520 (FanDuel) in case this is another embarrassing Cowboys beatdown on national TV.
49ers vs. Rams Pick on an Over
On the surface, the Rams are a classic Kitchen Sink spot. Of all nine 0-2 teams playing this week, the Rams may be the best fit — 74% ATS for Kitchen Sink teams playing division games, 85% ATS with the opponent on a one-game losing streak and 87% ATS when coming off a loss by at least 20 points.
I can't do it, though. The 49ers injuries dropped this line from Rams +7.5 to +6.5, the opposite side of a key number.
The Rams injuries are worse, though. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are both out, and the offensive line is in shambles. Kyle Shanahan is also 10-5 ATS against Sean McVay, including the playoffs.
The Niners appear to be without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and now George Kittle, but I still trust Shanahan's crew as long as Brock Purdy and Trent Williams play against a Rams defense that gave up 41 points to the Cardinals last week. This might be the worst defense in the NFL.
The 49ers scored at least 24 points in every win last season and at least 27 in all but one. They averaged 32.8 points in those wins, but we're getting a super deflated line here with all the injuries. Unless you think the Niners lose another one outright, history tells us they'll find a way to score.
Even last week in the loss, San Francisco scored 17 points despite four turnovers — three in Minnesota territory, including a turnover on downs to end a 15-play, 88-yard drive.
I trust the 49ers to score on this Rams defense, whoever Shanahan rolls out there.
Other Week 3 Betting Angles
We've already touched on three of the Kitchen Sink games — what about the rest?
I can't give the Panthers any more of my money, but I do think they're the right side. I'm already invested in Panthers and Titans futures, so I'll settle for a win.
I lean Colts moneyline but won't invest too heavily with two unpredictable young QBs.
There are two other angles I like: I'll play Jaguars +5.5 and will cover that on Monday. That's a bet if it gets back to +6.
I also like the spot for Denver against an overrated Bucs team. This is a great trends and Luck Rankings spot. I'll sprinkle a small aggressive bet on Broncos -5.5 at +600 (FanDuel), mirroring that Giants bet above.
Eagles vs. Saints Spread Prediction
No one wants to step in front of this Saints train right now. New Orleans is scoring on every Derek Carr possession, ranking top five in DVOA both running and passing, and Klint Kubiak is the offensive coordinator getting all the buzz. The Eagles rank 31st defensively by DVOA, including last against the run. If this plays out like the last two weeks for both teams, it could be a bloodbath.
That's why this is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot.
Philadelphia was -3.5 at some books on the lookahead line before last weekend, and now it's +3. That's nearly a full touchdown of line movement across the two biggest key numbers, and the Eagles really should've won last Monday night.
Kellen Moore's offense has moved the ball well without A.J. Brown. Now, Saquon Barkley and the Eagles are the first big test for this Saints defense. For all the love we're hearing about the Saints offensive line and coaching staff, I still give a huge advantage in both those areas to Philly.
I always love to fade Dennis Allen and Derek Carr. They're 36% and 37% ATS as favorites, and Allen is 27% ATS coming off a win. Also, unbeaten favorites of fewer than four points are 37% ATS in Week 3. When the books make an undefeated team a slight favorite, history says we should listen.
Since 2010, teams like the Saints that won by 17 or more points as underdogs of a touchdown or less are just 35% ATS the following week, including 12-40-1 ATS (23%) in the first five weeks of the season when that dominant upset win rings loudest.
What goes up must come down. This is a great spot for the Eagles.
Lions vs. Cardinals ATS Prediction
The Lions lost last week but didn't deserve to. They nearly doubled the Bucs up in yardage and went just 1-of-7 in the red zone, leaving a ton of points on the board in a four-point loss.
Detroit is moving the ball well, and that's more meaningful than a few red-zone struggles. This Lions offense should thrive against a Cardinals defense that's probably the least talented in the NFL. Arizona's run defense particularly looks problematic against David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and the best offensive line in the league.
Yes, Arizona's offense looks good, but a lot of teams will look good playing the Rams this season. Detroit's offense is better and so is its defense, but recency bias based on last week's results buys us value on this line.
Dan Campbell is 8-3 ATS the first three weeks of the season, 63% ATS as a favorite and 65% ATS after a loss with the Lions.
This line has sat right at Lions -2.5 or -3 all week, so use our NFL odds page to make sure you get below the key number if possible. Five of the last 19 Detroit wins have come by a field goal or in overtime. I'll pay a touch extra here to get below the key.
Chiefs vs. Falcons Sunday Night Football Pick Against the Spread
Until the final minutes Monday night, it looked like this would be a Kitchen Sink game too. The Falcons looked headed for 0-2 until one great passing drive from Kirk Cousins, and now it's like the entire world forgot just how poorly the Falcons had played for 1.9 full games before those final minutes.
It's telling that the Chiefs nearly lost last week, the Falcons won, and this line still didn't budge off the Lookahead we played a week ago. I'm not budging on my position either.
Cousins looked better against a blah Eagles defensive front and a vanilla Vic Fangio scheme that didn't bring much pressure, but he'll get a different test entirely against Steve Spagnuolo. Spags will bring the pressure, and so too will star DT Chris Jones. Cousins will be tested like he was in Week 1 against the Steelers, and that test didn't go so well for the Falcons.
Atlanta hasn't really stopped either the Steelers or Eagles defensively, both of whom moved the ball up and down the field. The Chiefs are missing Isaiah Pacheco, but I don't mind that since it could just push the Chiefs to pass more aggressively and let Mahomes do his thing against this beatable Atlanta defense.
Come on, we're really getting two Kirk Cousins primetime wins in a six-day span? The second one against Patrick Mahomes?? I don't buy it.
I do want Chiefs -3, so grab the key number while it's there. If it moves back to -3.5, don't be afraid to pay an extra 10 cents to get the key. Mahomes has 12 career wins by exactly a field goal, so that's great protection.
Early Week 4 Pick: Steelers vs. Colts Under 41
We're undefeated on totals this season, so let's keep playing our best moneymaker: Steelers road unders.
Steelers road unders have been a cash cow, especially in September and October, when they're 56-27-1 (67%) under Mike Tomlin. They're already 2-0 this season in games that totaled just 19 and 28 points.
The Steelers are 2-0 but have scored one touchdown entering Week 3. This team is winning with defense and not offense. The Colts offense has been all-or-nothing, hitting some big plays but failing to put together long drives. Both Indianapolis games have seen the Colts possess the ball around 20 minutes, and that sets up a spot for the Steelers to run the ball against a terrible run defense, milking the clock and grinding this game into unwatchable dust.
Advantage: under.
This was 44.5 on the season lookahead and is already dipping below 41 at some books. We love early season unders that get below 40, and this looks headed that way, so be sure to play the under 41 before it crosses that and 40, both key numbers.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
