NFL Week 15 has arrived, and I have four NFL player props locked in for the 15th NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 15 — keep tabs on this story as I continue to add more Week 15 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props — Week 15
- Patrick Mahomes Under 247.5 Passing Yards (-115; BetMGM)
- Tank Bigsby Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-113; FanDuel)
- Brandin Cooks Under 2.5 Receptions (-110; BetMGM)
- Kendall Fuller Over 4.5 Tackles + Assists (-115; DraftKings)
- Frankie Luvu Under 7.5 Tackles + Assists (-120; DraftKings)
- Keaton Mitchell Last Touchdown Scorer — 0.1 units (+4000; BetMGM)
- Geno Stone Under 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-140; ESPN Bet)
- James Conner Longest Reception Under 11.5 Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Chiefs vs Browns Player Props: Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
The number for this prop is plummeting because the weather report is showing a potentially ugly mix of rain and wind. This should also be a game where the Chiefs lean more on the run.
Chiefs LT D.J. Humphries has been ruled out and I’m expecting Mahomes to face a ton of pressure when he drops back against Myles Garrett. Mahomes has struggled under pressure this season, averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt compared to 7.4 YPA from a clean pocket.
He also scrambles at a higher rate and I think we could see that in sloppy conditions.
I'm projecting Mahomes closer to 235.5 passing yards. When it comes to passing-yard projections, they have a wide range of outcomes so it’s tougher to find a huge edge.
I just think this one is a bit sneaky due to the weather and expected pressure splits from Mahomes. The Chiefs should be a bit more run heavy with Isiah Pacheco closer to 100%.
Jets vs Jaguars Player Props: Tank Bigsby Rushing Yards
Bigsby reasserted himself as the lead back for the Jaguars last week (on early downs), with Travis Etienne handling more of the passing-down work. This is excellent news for Bigsby and I want to invest in his rushing upside.
His rushing attempts prop is at 15.5, but I think it should be closer to 14.5 — and I’m still showing quite a bit of value on his over in his yardage market.
Bigsby has been one of the most efficient RBs in the league — his +1.2 rushing yards over expected per attempt ranks fourth (according to NextGenStats). He also leads the league with 4.4 yards after contact per attempt.
The Jets have struggled on inside runs this year, allowing the fifth-highest yards after contact on inside runs. Look for Bigsby to literally tank his way through the Jets defense. I also think the Jags can keep the game close enough to provide him with a bigger workload than usual.
I'm projecting Bigsby closer to 58.5 rushing yards with around a 62% chance he clears 51.5.
Cowboys vs Panthers Player Props: Brandin Cooks Receptions
This is another game that could feature rainy conditions. It’s also between two bad teams who may be more run heavy as a result.
The Panthers have generated pressure at the lowest rate in the league; Cooks' target rate has doubled when Cooper Rush has been under pressure the last two weeks. Therefore, Cooks could be hurt by the Panthers' inability to create pressure.
Cooks still should see a handful of targets, but he tends to see low-percentage targets, with his expected catch rate at 48% (according to NextGenStats).
I’m not interested in fading his receiving yards because he could easily clear it with two catches. I'm projecting Cooks closer to 2.2 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay under 2.5.
Dolphins vs Texans Player Props: Kendall Fuller Tackles + Assists
Fuller, who returned from a concussion last week, has only played seven full games this season. He’s had a league-average schedule for a CB in those games, but he has still managed to clear this number 63% of the time.
He gets his best matchup of the season against the Texans, who rank fifth in tackle opportunities provided for CBs.
He will be guarding Nico Collins and Tank Dell for most of the game and will be involved in Joe Mixon's outside runs that go toward Fuller’s side. Mixon runs outside at the seventh-highest rate among qualified running backs and Fuller has been very good in run defense this season.
I’m projecting Fuller for a full tackle more than this and around a 63% chance he clears 4.5.
Commanders vs Saints Player Props: Frankie Luvu Tackles + Assists
Despite having a fairly good schedule for a LB in terms of expected tackle opportunities, Luvu has only cleared this number 23% of the time this year.
This is another solid matchup against the Saints, who have provided the sixth-most tackle opportunities for LBs. However, it’s not that much of a boost compared to his schedule to date.
Taysom Hill on IR probably lowers the Commanders' expected tackle opportunities for LBs, and Jake Haener getting his first career start likely means there will be fewer tackle chances in general.
Bobby Wagner and Jeremy Chinn typically handle most of the rushing tackles, with Luvu mixing in behind them. However, what makes Luvu so unique is that he tends to rush the passer at a high rate. He’s the only off-ball LB with 100+ pass rushes this season.
Typically, he operates as a LB on early downs and rushes the passer as an edge rusher at a much higher rate on third downs. Luvu has eight sacks on the season, but his tackle rate is much lower (7% of plays) as an edge rusher and 11.4% as a LB.
I think we see him rush at a higher rate this game considering there could more third downs with Haener under center, leading Washington to blitz at a higher rate. Plus, the Commanders have a shutdown CB in Marshon Lattimore (making his debut), which should only help boost their expected blitz rate.
I'm projecting Luvu closer to 6.7 tackles and around a 63% chance to stay under 7.5.
Ravens vs Giants Player Props: Keaton Mitchell Last Touchdown
Mitchell didn’t make his season debut until Week 10. He opened the season on the PUP list as he worked his way back from an ACL tear he suffered in Week 15 of last season.
He has yet to see a single touch this season and was a healthy scratch last week. So if he’s a healthy scratch again this week (which is very possible), this bet will void.
However, if he’s active, the plan may be to let him handle mop-up duty in the fourth quarter if the Ravens blow out the Giants. As 16.5-point favorites against a tanking Giants team, this is a possible scenario.
An explosive runner, Mitchell is facing a Giants defense that allows a ton of chunk runs.
I think the odds of him getting work in the fourth quarter and ripping off a TD run in garbage time is more likely than 40/1 (also assuming a low-scoring fourth quarter, making it likely that would be the last TD).
Again, the worst-case scenario is he’s a healthy scratch and this bet voids. I would take it at anything 25/1 or higher.
If you don’t have access to this market, or these odds, you can get creative and parlay the Ravens -23.5 and a Mitchell anytime TD.
Those two plays are correlated, so if the payout for that is anything 25/1 or better, I would take that as well.
Bengals vs Titans Player Props: Geno Stone Tackles + Assists
Stone has stayed under this number 62% of the time this year.
He’s had a pretty tough schedule, and this is another bad matchup as the Titans have provided the third-fewest tackle opportunities to opposing safeties.
We could see 10-20 mph winds here, which could limit how often the Titans throw down field. The Titans also have a pretty stingy scorekeeper when it comes to dishing out assists.
The high winds and potential leading game script could allow the Bengals to be a bit more run heavy than usual and help limit the Titans' time of possession, which would only help Stone stay under.
I’m projecting Stone closer to 4.7 tackles and wouldn’t be shocked if he ends with exactly five. I give him around a 67% chance to stay under 5.5.
Patriots vs Cardinals Player Props: James Conner Longest Reception
These are always nerve-wracking props because can James Conner have a catch go for 12+ yards this week? Of course.
However, he's only cleared this specific number in four of 13 games this season. So, this is already a number he typically doesn't clear.
This season, he's been the healthiest he's ever been (yet to miss a game) and averaging 9.3 yards per catch (second highest rate of his career).
This also sets up as a tougher matchup for him to rack up catches, to begin with. The Patriots use man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league. Conner only averages 0.7 yards per route run against man with a 12% target rate compared to 1.96 yards per route run and a 22% target rate against zone.
New England also has only 5.7 yards allowed to running backs, which is the seventh-lowest rate in the league.
Arizona is expected to play with the lead at a rate +13% higher than its season average (it's 6-point home favorites), which means the Cardinals should be more run-heavy than usual with fewer dropbacks and more direct runs by Conner specifically. Because of that, it hurts Conner's upside in the reception market.
Conner's key numbers in this market over the past three seasons are 8, 9, 11 and 18.
I have his median closer to 10 with around a 61% chance to stay under 11.5 yards.
