Oklahoma vs West Virginia Prediction, Pick, Odds: Get-Right Spot for Sooners?
Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured: Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel.
Oklahoma vs West Virginia Odds, Prediction
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
Oklahoma looks to stop the bleeding when it hosts West Virginia in Norman on Saturday night.
The Mountaineers have been rolling their past few games, especially offensively, putting up a combined 78 points against BYU and UCF. Their win last week over BYU got them to bowl eligibility, but they should still be motivated to take down mighty Oklahoma one last time before they leave for the SEC.
Oklahoma was looking at a potential spot in the College Football Playoff, but after back-to-back losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State, the Sooners are now on the outside looking in at the Big 12 Championship.
With both Kansas and OSU holding the tiebreaker over them, their chances of getting to Arlington are now looking slim.
Read on for our Oklahoma vs West Virginia Prediction, Pick, Odds.
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West Virginia has one of the most rush-heavy offenses in the country, running the ball on 63.5% of offensive plays. The Mountaineers are incredibly effective in doing so, ranking inside the top 35 in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush.
Lead back CJ Donaldson Jr. has been a workhorse for WVU, carrying the ball 146 times for 676 yards and nine touchdowns.
However, this rushing attack is not all on his shoulders because quarterback Garrett Greene has been running the ball effectively, too. Greene is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has eight touchdowns on the ground.
Oklahoma has a stout rush defense, so for the Mountaineers to be efficient offensively, they're going to have to throw the ball.
Greene has been a good passer this season because of the system and how he's utilized. He's averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and has 15 big-time throws mainly because of the use of play-action.
Because the Mountaineers run the ball at such a high rate, they often see a heavy box from opposing defenses. West Virginia has utilized play-action on 41.2% of Greene's pass attempts, which has proven to be effective.
Photo Credit: PFF.
West Virginia's defense is likely going to struggle to stop Oklahoma in this game, especially on the ground. The Mountaineers are outside the top 80 in both Rushing Success Rate Allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
If you look at their last two games against elite rushing attacks, they allowed 5.7 yards per carry to UCF and a whopping 8.5 yards per carry to Oklahoma State at home.
Turnover regression has played a large part in what has gone wrong for the Sooners over the last two weeks. In the first seven games of the season, Oklahoma had a +10 turnover margin, but it's turned the ball over six times in the last two games, clearly the cause of both defeats.
Oklahoma gained a combined 932 yards and ran the ball for more than five yards per carry across both games.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel had a bad game against Kansas, but he threw for 344 years and averaged 9.3 yards per attempt against Oklahoma State. However, he threw only one touchdown pass and had an interception.
Despite the two losses, he's still one of the best quarterbacks in college football. Gabriel is sixth in the FBS in EPA, behind only Michael Penix Jr., Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix and Carson Beck, and he has Oklahoma ranking fourth in Passing Success Rate.
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The Sooners' rushing attack has improved over the past three games, averaging 4.7 yards per carry against UCF, Kansas and Oklahoma State.
They've used a mixture of different running backs, so offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby is hoping they can find the right formula against a below-average West Virginia front seven.
The main reason why Oklahoma's offense has been so good is because of how efficient it's been when it gets into scoring position territory. The Sooners rank 24th in Finishing Drives, averaging 4.86 Points per Scoring Opportunity.
So, if they can just eliminate the turnovers, they'll be back to looking like the dominant team they were at the beginning of the season.
Brent Venables has turned around the Oklahoma defense, which has been put in some bad spots the last two weeks because of the turnovers. Overall for the season, Oklahoma is top-25 in both Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Play.
The front seven has been dominant, too, ranking No. 1 in the country in Stuff Rate and seventh in Defensive Line Yards. That's huge against a West Virginia team that's going to run the ball at such a high rate.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and Oklahoma match up statistically:
West Virginia Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 33 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 42 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 56 | 31 | |
| Havoc | 14 | 19 | |
| Finishing Drives | 54 | 18 | |
| Quality Drives | 46 | 34 |
Oklahoma Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 19 | 88 | |
| Line Yards | 76 | 83 | |
| Pass Success | 4 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 10 | 21 | |
| Finishing Drives | 24 | 89 | |
| Quality Drives | 22 | 55 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 90 | 52 |
| PFF Coverage | 109 | 43 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 13 | 98 |
| Middle 8 | 18 | 34 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (92) | 23.3 (12) |
| Rush Rate | 63.8% (5) | 54.9% (48) |
West Virginia vs Oklahoma
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a perfect get-right spot for Oklahoma after losing two very close games and experiencing that turnover regression they were due for.
The Sooners' ability to defensively dominate this game in the trenches is going to be key. Greene is a fantastic quarterback when he's not forced to throw the ball a ton. If the Sooners can get him into obvious passing-down situations so he can't utilize the play-action, they can effectively shut down the West Virginia offense.
With an improved rushing attack over the last three games, Oklahoma should be able to run the ball effectively and put Gabriel in favorable positions to light up what is a very average West Virginia secondary.
It hasn't happened often, but when the Sooners return to Norman following a road loss, they've been pretty good against the spread.
So, I like the value on the Sooners at -12.5.
Pick: Oklahoma -12.5
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