For the sixth straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
I got back on track last week with a classic "Nardawg" spot as Pitt got to the window with the outright upset over Louisville. Unfortunately, Collin tried to take on Oregon State in Corvallis, which hasn't worked out for bettors in recent seasons.
- 2018-22: 60-98, +8.3 units
- 2023: 6-8, +3.55 units
- Overall: 66-104, +12.85 units
This week, Collin and I are rolling with a pair of conference road dogs. I'll kick things off in the afternoon before Collin hopefully takes us home with a sweep in prime time.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out at 8-1 odds.
Stuckey: Minnesota +150
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 31 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 31 -110o / -110u | -180 |
I'm selling an inept Iowa offense playing its eighth straight game without a break — which could impact a defense that is on the field way too much — against a Minnesota team that should come in much fresher after a much-needed bye week.
The Gophers should also be a bit healthier with the likely return of running back Darius Taylor, who missed the past two games, and the probable season debut of their best linebacker, Cody Lindenberg.
I also don't mind buying semi-low on a 3-3 Minnesota team that has losses against undefeated North Carolina and Michigan, as well as one against Northwestern in a game it led by 21 in the fourth quarter.
The Hawkeyes have inexplicably started the season with a 6-1 record, but the offense has never been in a worse place, which is saying something for Iowa.
After an upset win over a Wisconsin team that lost its starting quarterback to injury, I'm itching to fade the Hawkeyes as a favorite.
Not only does Iowa have one of the worst offenses in the country — it ranks last in Success Rate — with a backup quarterback now under center, but it also lost its only two reliable weapons to injury in tight ends Luke Lachey and Erick All, who led the team with a whopping two catches for 19 yards last week.
Since taking over as the starter, Deacon Hill has completed 23-of-62 passes (37.1%) for 262 yards in three games in which Iowa was outgained by 52, 95 and 127 yards. Yikes.
So, how have the Hawkeyes managed to pull these games out? Well, the same way Iowa always does: turnovers, defense and special teams.
In a game with an absurdly low total (30.5, the lowest we've tracked over 20 years), points should come at a premium, which makes the snail-like underdog even more enticing.
From a matchup perspective, Iowa simply can't take advantage of a Minnesota secondary that has allowed far too many explosive passing plays. The offense will once again have to solely rely on a rushing attack that ranks 125th in rushing EPA and 128th in Rush Success Rate.
Meanwhile, the Gophers, who play at a snail-like pace and want to run as much as any team in the country, may find some success on the ground against an Iowa defense that grades out below the national average in Rush Success Rate Allowed.
Iowa can really only build any margin with turnovers or special teams play in a game that should have a rapidly moving clock. I'll take my chances with the fresher and healthier road dog against one of the worst offenses in the country.
Wilson: Colorado State +260
| Colorado St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +245 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -305 |
There's new life to the season for Colorado State following its improbable comeback to beat Boise State in Week 7 in which it trailed by 20 points with under five minutes to go.
The Rams scored the final 21 points of the game, including a last-second Hail Mary heave by quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi to tight end Dallin Holker.
In Jay Norvell's Air Raid offense, Colorado State lives and breathes on explosive passes and is led by star wide receiver Tory Horton, who averages 2.9 yards per route run.
Horton and company could have a huge day through the air against a UNLV team that invites shootouts. Simply put, this is just a great matchup for Colorado State's pass-heavy offense.
While the Rebels have enjoyed improvement on offense under new head coach Barry Odom and coordinator Brennan Marion, rising to a top-40 rank in Quality and Finishing Drives under quarterback Jayden Maiava, the same can't be said for the UNLV defense, which has even struggled at times against the likes of Nevada, Hawaii and UTEP.
The Rebels have particularly struggled in coverage, ranking 115th nationally in Pass Success Rate, which spells trouble against the Rams. More importantly, UNLV ranks 130th in giving up the big play, including a bottom-20 rank in allowing pass explosives.
Considering Colorado State owns a 65% pass rate, it should have significant schematic advantages.
Since I show solid value in this spread, which I project closer to a field goal, and like the matchup, I'm riding with the Rams to build off the momentum of last week's miraculous win.
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