College Football Odds & Picks for Week 6: Collin Wilson’s Bets for Kentucky vs Georgia, Oklahoma vs Texas & More

Week 6 of the college football season has a few defining games on the slate.

The No. 1 highlight has to be Oklahoma vs. Texas in the 2023 edition of the Red River Rivalry. Both teams enter this matchup undefeated and ranked in the top 15, with the Longhorns coming in at No. 3. The winner will in all likelihood make the Big 12 Championship and put itself in position to snag a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Once that game wraps up, Alabama travels to College Station, where it's a short favorite over Jimbo Fisher's revamped Texas A&M squad. The Aggies have been clicking with Bobby Petrino in the fold and could present a number of problems for Nick Saban's Crimson Tide.

Then, to wrap it all up, Georgia will look to avoid getting off to a slow start when it hosts an undefeated Kentucky team in an SEC East battle.

I broke down all three marquee matchups and shared at least one betting pick for each. So, let's dive into this Week 6 slate — and hopefully, I'll see you at the window.

Collin Wilson's Week 6 Betting Card

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

The Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners have been doing battle since 1900, as the Longhorns lead the series, 63-50-5.

The game will be played in the city limits of Dallas for the 101st time, coming from the historic Cotton Bowl next to the Texas State Fair. The Red River Showdown has had plenty of naming variations, all describing the grudge match for the 10-gallon Golden Hat.

For the first time since 2011, one of the teams in this rivalry showdown will be ranked third or better in the AP Top 25. That team in this iteration is the Longhorns, who already have the biggest nonconference win in college football with a Week 2 victory over Alabama.

Head coach Steve Sarkisian brings an undefeated record with national title hopes into Dallas, as no opponent has come within 10 points of the Horns. Although a loss wouldn't end Texas' bid for a national title, a Red River win would make the Longhorns the top team in the coming College Football Playoff rankings.

The Sooners are on a comeback path after a losing season in 2022. Head coach Brent Venables had a rough inaugural season, getting blanked in this very rivalry game a year ago.

Venables dialed back media access this week, looking to limit any bulletin board material in the Texas locker room. With a rejuvenated roster and last season in the rearview mirror, the Sooners believe they're primed for an upset.

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The resurrection of Oklahoma football started with the defensive side of the ball.

To execute the hybrid four-man front that pivots between quarters and cover 3, Venables requires a linebacker to captain the defense. Danny Stutsman fills that role this season after severe struggles in 2022. Stutsman has improved a missed tackle rate from 15% to 9.3%, precipitating a jump in all counting statistics for the Sooners defense.

Venables praised the highly-graded linebacker as a "really good leader" heaving into the Red River Showdown, catching the attention of the opposing head coach.

Oklahoma continues to send blitz at a high rate of 38% but has improved the success rate up to 61% on the season.

The Sooners have improved to 26th in Defensive Havoc, but the bigger improvement is keeping opponents from driving the field and creating explosives. The Sooners rank top-10 in Line Yards, Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.

A strength of schedule discussion is needed considering the offenses OU has faced, but the Sooners defense has done its part in limiting opponents to 20 points or less.

Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has posted 19 all-purpose touchdowns this season, throwing for nearly 1,600 yards with one of the most explosive offenses in passing downs.

However, the fifth-year senior does have a few critical areas of focus in his passing numbers so far — a career low in average depth of target and the largest turnover-worthy play rate of his career at 3.3%.

The Sooners' rushing attack has left plenty to be desired from a Success Rate and explosiveness standpoint. Oklahoma ranks 100th or worse in Line Yards and Stuff Rate on offense, as the offensive line has left running backs Marcus Major and Tawee Walker to be hit before they reach the line of scrimmage.

The Sooners have busted only eight runs over 15 yards this season, so their explosiveness will continue to come from Gabriel's left arm.

The Longhorns are developing into a true national title contender, but a couple of key areas persist as the season hits a midpoint.

Texas has struggled to find any breakaways or elusiveness in the ground game, struggling with Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate numbers in the bottom half of FBS.

Jonathon Brooks has been the workhorse of the running back stable, averaging 4.4 yards after contact with six explosive runs on the season.

The struggle has come from the Horns' other backs, with inconsistent play from CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue.

Texas has the 38th-highest rate of standard downs on offense, so improvement in the running game will provide shorter distances for a team that owns a third-down conversion rank of 59th. The Longhorns are currently 90th in average distance to go on third downs at 7.3 yards per attempt.

That aspect has been covered up by Quinn Ewers' solid play at the quarterback position.

Ewers is having a steady season compared to 2022. The sophomore boasts a 10:1 ratio in passing touchdowns to interceptions, posting only two turnover-worthy throws thus far.

The Longhorns rank fifth in Quality Drives, a statistic that looks at possessions that end with a score, have more than 10 plays, last longer than three minutes or exceed 50 yards total.

The threat of the deep ball has kept opposing secondaries on their heels, as wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell both have more than two yards per route run.

The Texas faithful should be excited about a defense unit that's forcing plenty of punts. The Longhorns rank sixth nationally in preventing opposing drives from crossing the 50-yard line, pushing opponents back to an average distance of eight yards on third downs.

The numbers are even greater when teams get into scoring position, as only 16 opponent drives have crossed the 40-yard line. Those drives have averaged just two points per trip.

Linebacker Jaylan Ford leads the team in stops and quarterback hurries while also snagging two interceptions.

The biggest question for this Red River matchup is whether or not the Sooners have closed the gap a year after a 49-0 drubbing at the hands of the Longhorns. The advanced analytics suggest Oklahoma has made up that ground, but a poor strength of schedule certainly puts the validity of the Sooners' numbers in question.

Despite the resume differences, there are plenty of areas where Oklahoma can attack this Texas defense.

The Longhorns bring a mid-FBS rank in coverage, per PFF, as defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski elects to run quarters coverage with a mix of cover 3.

Both have produced a moderate Success Rate, but a negative EPA with quarters coverage leaves Texas open to explosives through the air.

Those explosive pass plays can happen in passing downs, where the Sooners are top-10 in expected points. While Texas has posted a Passing Downs Success Rate of 20th, the Horns have allowed the largest EPA in all of college football on passing downs. The struggles have come primarily against the pass, as the quarters and cover 3 defense has allowed 12 passes beyond 30 yards.

Similar to the Sooners, Texas will have advantages in creating explosives in passing downs. While the Longhorns rank 133rd defensively against passing down explosives, Oklahoma ranks 68th against an easier slate of offenses.

While Mitchell and Worthy are sure to find holes in the Sooners' cover 2 and cover 3 looks, Ewers has been inconsistent with his downfield passing. The Texas quarterback has gone just 4-of-19 on throws over 20 yards with an adjusted completion percentage nearly cut in half from his deep passing attempts from last season.

The market has been all over the Longhorns early in the week, but a deep dive into the explosive passing and Success Rate numbers against Oklahoma's preferred coverages indicates the Sooners can trade shots.

Action Network projects the Red River Rivalry as a five-point ball game in favor of Texas. The total has caught resistance at key numbers in the 60s, as each offense will have periods of inconsistency without a complementary rushing attack.

As for the side, the strength of schedule and recent victory in Tuscaloosa will have busloads of investors steaming the Longhorns number.

With a projection of less than a touchdown, Oklahoma is a buy with the expectation that the explosive play will be the great equalizer for the Sooners in this edition of the Red River Rivalry.

When looking for a contender to win the SEC West, all eyes should shift to College Station.

Alabama and Texas A&M enter Week 6 with 2-0 records in the toughest division in all of college football, so the winner of this game will be in the driver's seat for an SEC Championship appearance.

The road has been bumpy for both, as the Crimson Tide and Aggies have each taken a nonconference loss.

Alabama has recovered from a Week 2 loss against Texas, winning two conference games over the state of Mississippi by at least two scores.

Head coach Nick Saban experimented with backup quarterbacks in a typhoon against South Florida before landing on a starter for the rest of the season.

As the rushing attack improves, the Crimson Tide still must face questions in the passing game.

Texas A&M hit a bump in the road with a loss to Miami. The Aggies have weathered the storm with two conference victories despite the loss of starting quarterback Conner Weigman.

Head coach Jimbo Fisher is on the cusp of his most successful season in College Station, bringing in an offensive mastermind at the coordinator position, while the defense is the top-ranked unit nationally in Havoc.

Texas A&M has certainly closed the gap on Alabama, winning in this spot in 2021 before losing by four in Tuscaloosa last season. The winner of this game emerges not only as the team to beat for the SEC but could set itself up for a possible run to the College Football Playoff.

Since taking a loss to Texas, the Crimson Tide have gotten back on track.

Jalen Milroe has taken over as the quarterback for the remainder of the season, serving as the team's leading rusher in a victory over Mississippi State. The third-year quarterback continues to be electric on the ground, averaging 4.4 yards after contact and generating 16 missed tackles for the season.

All of the questions for the Alabama offense surround the offensive line's blocking and Milroe in known passing downs.

Milroe has collected 10 big-time throws to just five turnover-worthy plays on the season, generating the highest average depth of target of his career at 13.1 yards. Nearly every mistake that generated a turnover-worthy play happened in the Texas game, leading the handicap to assess whether or not the Texas A&M front seven can produce like the Longhorns.

Milroe struggles in a crowded pocket, generating as many catastrophic plays with blitz than quality pass completions.

The Alabama defense continues to play as one of the best in the nation. The Crimson Tide are the top-ranked defensive unit in terms of coverage, per PFF.

Cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry is quickly rising up individual boards with four forced incompletions, allowing only half of the targets thrown his way to be caught.

Opposite McKinstry is Terrion Arnold, who generates nearly double the forced incompletions. For Texas A&M to have success passing, it must come between the hashmarks.

The Aggies have the nastiest defense in college football, generating the top Havoc ranking in coordinator DJ Durkin's 4-2-5 scheme.

Texas A&M sends a moderate amount of blitz, generating the second-highest number of tackles for loss. Not only do the Aggies play behind the line of scrimmage, but the defense is complemented with a top-10 rank in passes broken up.

Linebackers Edgerrin Cooper and Taurean York are in the top 25 of all Power 5 defenders in creating stops, a measurement of a complete failure by the offense.

While the defense showed out against Arkansas, the Aggies quickly ramped up their backup quarterback for the Southwest Classic.

Weigman, the previous starter, quickly moved from day-to-day to a season-ending foot injury, moving backup Max Johnson into the starteing role.

The southpaw was already a seasoned veteran, attempting nearly 600 passes previously for Texas A&M and LSU. The quarterback did not disappoint against Arkansas, connecting on 28-of-33 passing attempts with two touchdowns.

Johnson targeted 10 different players and kept the Razorback defense on its heels, executing 48 plays in standard downs to just 19 in passing downs.

With no downgrade from Weigman to Johnson, skill-position players could keep Texas A&M in the top 25 for Quality Drives and Line Yards.

Thanks to Ainias Smith and Evan Stewart, the Aggies are most dangerous in passing downs with top-35 ranks in Success Rate and explosives.

The SEC West will be determined between two teams that field impeccable defenses.

Texas A&M specializes in Havoc, consistently playing behind the line of scrimmage and batting down passes in the air. Alabama has the best overall defense nationally against the pass, relegating opposing offenses to a one-dimensional attack.

The biggest handicap in this game is whether or not Milroe can break free from the pocket and whether or not the Aggies can produce a ground game.

There's every reason in the world to believe that Texas A&M can shut down scrambles and designed runs from Milroe. The Aggies have already faced Arkansas' KJ Jefferson and Auburn's Robby Ashford — two of the best RPO and scramble quarterbacks in the conference.

Neither Jefferson nor Ashford did anything on the ground against the Aggies. Instead, the best quarterback rusher against the Aggies through five games is ULM's Jiya Wright, who totaled 25 yards off designed runs.

Considering the Alabama offense ranks 111th in Havoc Allowed, good field position and quick scores could be in the mix for Texas A&M.

On the other side, there's every expectation that Alabama will shut down A&M's passing game. The Aggies will counter with plenty of success in running the ball, taking advantage of a Crimson Tide defense that's 94th in Stuff Rate and 56th in Line Yards.

A&M Running back Le'Veon Moss had plenty of success against Arkansas, posting two explosive runs while averaging 3.8 yards after contact on the season.

Texas A&M's average distance to go on third down was five yards against the Hogs — a scenario that would likely help the Aggies dominate the line of scrimmage on the way to scoring opportunities.

The Action Network projection makes this game a pick'em, giving value in the market to the home team.

Texas A&M has clear advantages on the defensive side of the ball, specifically in the Havoc category. While Alabama does have the best pass defense in college football, it's the Aggies' ground game that cashes tickets for investors.

There's a stark contrast for Georgia and Kentucky in historical records versus where the teams stand entering Week 6.

The Wildcats are fresh off a beatdown against SEC East rival Florida. Plenty of questions were answered surrounding head coach Mark Stoops' team, from the quarterback position to a rushing attack that had underwhelmed.

The defense also quieted the outside noise with nine tackles for loss and a trio of sacks against the Gators. Kentucky is now undefeated in October and a Week 6 victory away from owning the SEC East.

However, the historical records show a series completely owned by Georgia.

The Bulldogs have won 13 straight dating back to 2010 and own a 62-12 all-time series record. While Kentucky answered questions in Week 5, Georgia left plenty to be desired in a narrow road victory over Auburn.

The Bulldogs have gotten off to a slow start in every game, allowing their last three opponents to score a combined 55 points.

Questions remain around a defensive slide and low explosive numbers on offense, giving this Week 6 game plenty of intrigue.

The conversation around Kentucky's offense centers around Vanderbilt transfer running back Ray Davis. The fifth-year senior exploded against Florida, contributing 280 yards on the ground with a massive 8.3 yards after contact.

The Gators allowed Davis to go for six runs over 15 yards, vaulting Kentucky to the highest-ranked rushing attack in college football in terms of explosives.

However, an inefficient passing game continues for Kentucky, as transfer quarterback Devin Leary did nothing against Florida to stave off questions about a pectoral injury. Leary finished 9-of-20 passing for 69 yards, an item that played a role in Kentucky converting just 2-of-9 third-down attempts.

The Wildcats also failed to complete a pass longer than 15 yards, generating just 4.7 yards in passing downs.

The defense continues to limit explosives, ranking third in allowing the big play. Defensive coordinator Brad White has the defense performing as expected with a soft strength of schedule. Kentucky ranks top-20 in Success Rate, allowing just eight rushing attempts to go longer than 10 yards.

Both cornerbacks, Maxwell Hairston and Andru Phillips, lead the team in tackles, accounting for nearly 25% of the team total. Defensive interior

Deone Walker has been a terror against quarterbacks, generating the second-most pressures nationally from the right side of the defensive line.

Head coach Kirby Smart continues to see the Bulldogs start slow, as Auburn led, 10-0, after the first quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. After five games, Georgia has a neutral point differential in the first quarter compared to a +15.4 mark in the second half.

Whether early player execution or poor game planning is the culprit, Georgia continues to struggle out of the gate.

One area of focus is a rushing attack that ranks mid-FBS through nearly half of the season. Daijun Edwards leads the team in attempts but has experienced a career low of 2.4 yards after contact. Georgia ranks 32nd in run blocking, per PFF, leaving the mystery to the backfield.

Luckily for the Bulldogs, Georgia has not had to worry about the quarterback position. Carson Beck moved to seven touchdowns on the season while keeping his turnover-worthy play rate down to just 1.1% in all dropbacks.

The Bulldogs fielded two incredible defenses for consecutive runs to the National Championship and set a high bar for the 2023 unit.

Georgia has lived up to the hype against the pass, ranking top-five in coverage and Defensive Passing Success Rate. Through a slate of offenses that includes Ball State, UAB, Auburn, South Carolina and Tennessee-Martin the Bulldogs have allowed just eight passes over 20 yards.

Its third-down numbers, along with its ability to limit explosives in passing downs, have been excellent, but it's struggled against the run.

The Bulldogs slip just inside the top 50 in terms of Defensive Line Yards. Front seven efficiency looks at tackles for loss and sacks, along with numbers in short-yardage situations on third and fourth down.

Georgia has taken a severe dip in front seven efficiency, which looks at tackles for loss and sacks, along with numbers in short-yardage situations on third and fourth downs. The decrease in production is especially apparent when looking at tackles for loss and four-yard rushing gains allowed.

Both Kentucky and Georgia have played a lighter strength of schedule to this point, but the rushing metrics cannot be ignored on one side of the ball.

Kentucky boasts the most explosive rush unit in college football, becoming the primary handicap against a Bulldogs defense that's been lackluster. Georgia has allowed 19 rushing gains of at least 10 yards, falling to 38th in Defensive Rush Expected Points.

Another pain point for the defending champions is opponent scoring opportunities. In 21 opponent drives that have crossed the 40-yard line, the Bulldogs defense has allowed an average of 3.1 points. While that's better than the national average of 3.6, the Bulldogs are on pace to post their worst Points per Opportunity mark since before the 2020 pandemic season.

Meanwhile, Georgia's offense should have success against an untested Kentucky defense. The Wildcats don't generate an above-average Havoc Rate — a plus for a Bulldogs offense that ranks 28th in Havoc Allowed.

Georgia has advantages in Quality Drives and Finishing Drives, along with large edges in Standard Downs and Passing Downs Success Rate. Georgia's offense — a unit that has scored on 23 of its 26 trips to the red zone — will find scoring opportunities.

Action Network projects Georgia -14.5, which is in line with the current market.

While the game is expected to be a slow grind offensively thanks to slow tempo, both teams will create scoring opportunities. Look for Davis and Kentucky's ground attack to generate explosives early against a Georgia defense that sleepwalks in the first quarter.

Another Bulldogs comeback may be in store for the second half, propelling this number above the game total.

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