Saturday College Football Best Bets: Evening Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Saturday's Week 1 college football slate now rolls into the evening. That's right — we're far from done.
Our college football writers came through with five best bets for Saturday night's NCAAF games, including picks for Nevada vs. Troy, UCLA vs. Hawaii, Fresno State vs. Michigan and Wyoming vs. Arizona State.
Whether you're looking to bet a team total over on the island or back a Group of Five road underdog in the desert, we have you covered.
So, continue reading for all five of our Week 1 college football best bets for Saturday night.
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Nevada vs. Troy
By John Feltman
Nevada nearly pulled off an improbable upset over SMU in Reno last weekend, but it blew a late fourth-quarter lead. The Wolf Pack entered their matchup against SMU as four-touchdown underdogs, so nobody expected them to keep the game competitive.
The Wolf Pack now hit the road to take on the Troy Trojans, who are going through an entire program overhaul.
Troy is among the worst teams in the nation in terms of returning production and has new faces at key positions on offense, including quarterback and running back.
Former Notre Dame offensive coordinator Gerad Parker was hired to become the Trojans' head coach in the offseason, and he brought in West Virginia transfer Goose Crowder to take over. Crowder will be making his first career start on Saturday.
The Pack have a lot of returning production from 2023, and that was on full display on Saturday — specifically on the defensive side of the ball. Nevada's cornerbacks played a fabulous game, and it’s clear they're going to be an underrated unit in 2024.
With all of the changes, it's tough to project how the Trojans perform coming out of the gate. They may just spend this first game trying to adjust and shake off some of the rust.
The Wolf Pack are primarily going to attack the Trojans on the ground, mixing in quarterback runs with Brendon Lewis. Neither of these teams has any intentions of running a fast-paced offense, so I expect the clock to churn throughout the evening.
The spread has taken a nosedive since Nevada’s game against SMU, as many believe this is a much better team than expected. As someone who still believes the Wolf Pack offense is a work in progress, I want nothing to do with the spread.
With that said, I expect Saturday’s matchup to be sloppy at times, so I'd grab the under before it falls any further.
Pick: Under 45.5 (Play to 42.5)
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UCLA vs. Hawaii
By Brett Pund
The trendy pick all summer was to take Hawaii on the island against UCLA in Week 1. However, it now seems like everyone is jumping off the bandwagon after watching the Rainbow Warriors last week.
I never fully believed the Mountain West squad would pull the upset here, but I do still trust in Timmy Chang as an offensive coach to do enough to cash the team total.
This play is primarily a fade of the Bruins, who are replacing a lot from their great defense a year ago. The main change is that D’Anton Lynn left the program to take the defensive coordinator position at USC.
Meanwhile, this is the same unit that loses 27 sacks and its top five tacklers along the defensive line. UCLA will also be replacing three of its four starters in the secondary, which is extremely important against Chang’s Run-and-Shoot offense.
Yes, I understand it wasn’t pretty last week, but Chang himself was vocal about running a vanilla offense to avoid giving the Bruins film to prepare. It was also a very windy day on the island, which was not great for Hawaii’s passing attack.
The Rainbow Warriors bring back Brayden Schager at quarterback, along with all of his receivers from last season. I also feel that Hawaii has enough experience up front to give Schager enough time to throw.
This was a very similar scenario to last season when Chang’s team played Week 0 against Vanderbilt before hosting Stanford the following week.
Hawaii topped this team total in that loss to the Cardinal, and I think that experience is something Chang learned from.
Pick: Hawaii Team Total Over 19.5 (Play to 20.5)
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Fresno State vs. Michigan
By Greg Liodice
If you read up on my college football sleepers before the season started, you’d know why I’m bullish on Fresno State this season.
The Bulldogs will undoubtedly have their biggest test of the season in Week 1, as they head to the Big House to play defending national champion Michigan.
Michigan, for all its accolades and talent, will have some growing pains.
Head coach Sherrone Moore has experience coaching this team after then-coach Jim Harbaugh served a suspension, but the Wolverines still don’t have a definitive starting quarterback. They also have a completely new offensive line and have lost major contributors in the secondary.
Fresno State, meanwhile, is looking to build off its solid 9-4 season last year. Quarterback Mikey Keene returns for his second season in Fresno, as does running back Malik Sherrod.
The word “dog” is sometimes overused, but make no mistake about it — Sherrod is a dog. With a low center of gravity and insane speed, Sherrod is hard to take down. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry last year and ranked up just under 1,000 rushing yards.
Additionally, while the Bulldogs weren’t necessarily the best rushing team in the nation, they ranked 60th in Success Rate and 37th in explosiveness, which is where Sherrod comes into play.
Do I expect the Bulldogs to come out on top? Certainly not. For all of the uncertainties in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines are still the better team.
However, 21 seems like a big number
Let’s see how this pans out on NBC, but I have a hunch this game will be closer than what the books seem to think.
Pick: Fresno State +21
Fresno State vs. Michigan
By Greg Waddell
Michigan’s quarterback situation could be a serious problem. Alex Orji is the anticipated starter, but he's not a capable passer, and he failed to win the battle for the starting job against a former walk-on in Davis Warren.
There's a good chance we'll see both quarterbacks get a shot here, and with a new coaching staff alongside them, a cautious approach is likely coming from the Wolverines on the offensive end.
Michigan’s defense will need to take this one seriously, as Fresno State has a star at quarterback in Mikey Keene. Keene lost his top receiver and top tight end from last season, though, and it will be an uphill battle against the absolutely monstrous Wolverines defense.
It's worth noting that all three of Michigan's nonconference games last season went under 46. The game totals finished at 33 vs. East Carolina, 42 vs. UNLV and 37 vs. Bowling Green. That was with JJ McCarthy, Blake Corum and Roman Wilson heavily involved, and not a ton of unproven skill players.
This defense is just as strong, if not stronger, and the offense may be inept.
Add to it a quarterback battle and a coaching staff that will be cautious to ensure avoiding disaster in their first season opener, and it all points toward the under being one of the safest plays of the entire weekend in Week 1.
Pick: Under 46 (Play to 43)
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Wyoming vs. Arizona State
Jay Sawvel was promoted from defensive coordinator to replace Craig Bohl and retained nearly every starter on both sides of the ball.
Eight defensive starters return for what should be an excellent unit led by Jordan Bertagnole at defensive tackle. In the back seven, the secondary should be strong as well.
Quarterback Evan Svoboda is ready to take over and has received high praise all offseason. He's 6-foot-5, 245 pounds, and wears No. 17. He has a rocket arm and is a strong runner as well. Does that remind you of any former Wyoming quarterbacks?
Svoboda will need to come out strong with starting running back Harrison Waylee set to miss the start of the season with an injury. Luckily, this is still a deep running back room.
DJ Jones is expected to start after transferring from North Carolina. He actually started at cornerback for the Tar Heels last season after spending three years as a running back.
Sam Scott and Jamari Ferrell will also be in the mix after backing up Waylee last year. They each had 50 carries as Waylee battled injuriesm so this is an experienced backfield.
Four of the five offensive line starters are also back, so whoever is running the ball should have space to operate.
Wyoming will be facing an Arizona State defense that was terrible last season and returns just three starters. The Sun Devils are most optimistic about their pass rush but should have trouble bringing Svoboda to the ground.
On offense, ASU boasts a good back in Cam Skattebo, but I'm not scared of Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt. He had three turnover-worthy throws in just 23 attempts last season.
Wyoming offensive coordinator Jay Johnson was in the same position at Michigan State last season, coaching up Leavitt. He should be able to provide plenty of insight into Leavitt's tendencies for Aaron Bohl and this Cowboys defense.
Sawvel was promoted from within in order to keep continuity, and I expect Wyoming to keep the same identity it had under Craig Bohl. This is a team that has gone 13-8 against the spread as an underdog in the last four years and 32-23 as an underdog in the last nine years.
Pick: Wyoming +7.5 (Play to +6.5)
