UTEP vs Sam Houston Prediction: Over/Under Betting Odds

Week 9 brings us a Conference USA matchup, featuring the UTEP Miners vs. the Sam Houston Bearkats.

Both teams are coming off of losses last week — UTEP at the hands of the New Mexico State Aggies and the Bearkats lost at home to the Panthers of FIU.

Sam Houston is hunting for its first win of the year in what should be a very winnable game against the 2-6 Miners.

Let’s see which team holds the advantage and make a UTEP vs. Sam Houston prediction.

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The Miners look to get back on track this week following a home loss.

They came up one game short of bowl season last year, and they will need to be perfect from here on out under head coach Dana Dimel in order to do what they could not a year ago.

Offensively, this UTEP team has really struggled. The Miners only put up an average of 16 points per game, which is not enough to win many games, especially with the push for offenses to score more and more each year in college football.

This team has also turned the ball over 11 times this season, mostly via interceptions from quarterback Gavin Hardison. Hardison enters this game as questionable after backup Cade McConnell got the start last week in an unimpressive 28-7 loss.

UTEP’s offense ranks 112th this season, so it should have a tough time scoring again this week. The Miners rank 39th in Rush Play Rate, so I would assume we can expect a heavy dose of the run game to try and limit turnovers.

The Miners' defense doesn’t rank much better than their offense (88th). The strength of this defense comes through the air, where it ranks 35th. This is especially impressive given that the unit ranks 20th in defensive Pass Play Rates.

This tells me Sam Houston will have a hard time airing it out and scoring quickly. Most of this is due to UTEP’s ability to rush the quarterback, tallying 21 sacks on the year thus far.

Look for this defense to find some success against the struggling Bearkat offense.

The Bearkats enter this game winless following a six-point loss at home to FIU. This game was somewhat inspiring for the Bearkats, given they put up their best offensive performance of the year with 27 points. Unfortunately, their defense gave them one of their worst performances of the year.

The jump to FBS from FCS has not been fun for the Bearkats, but they seem to be playing some more competitive games as of late. This team will need both sides of the ball to click this week in order to take down the Miners.

The Bearkats are putting up 18 points per game following last week’s 27-point outburst, but outside of that matchup, it has been tough sledding for Keegan Shoemaker.

Shoemaker has 1,322 passing yards this year with eight touchdowns and six interceptions. He has been sloppy at times, but the Bearkats are only -2 in turnover margin compared to UTEP’s -6.

This could be something to watch if Sam Houston can get a few short fields, which will make things a bit easier on its offense.

Sam Houston loves to throw the ball this year (20th in Pass Play Rates), which may be a bit inflated due to the amount of time it has been trailing. It is also due to the Bearkats' inability to run the ball (131st).

The heavy pass attack plays right into UTEP's defensive strengths, so this could be an ugly one for a struggling Sam Houston offense.

Defensively, Sam Houston has been pretty stout given its offensive woes. The Bearkats rank 54th defensively this year in Success Rate, which is pretty impressive for a team that just made the jump to FBS.

This defense shows no real weakness against the run or the pass, so it should be able to stifle a struggling UTEP offense, especially with UTEP traveling to Huntsville this week.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UTEP and Sam Houston match up statistically:

UTEP Offense vs. Sam Houston Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	92	56
Line Yards	85	92
Pass Success	108	65
Havoc	68	129
Finishing Drives	96	71
Quality Drives	67	65

Sam Houston Offense vs. UTEP Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	131	113
Line Yards	128	89
Pass Success	115	79
Havoc	88	100
Finishing Drives	126	107
Quality Drives	123	80

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	111	19
PFF Coverage	116	90
Special Teams SP+	119	122
Middle 8	102	102
Seconds per Play	29.0 (101)	27.2 (73)
Rush Rate	58.9% (39)	44.6% (117)

Both of these offenses are not good and both teams have solid defenses that should be able to bottle up the opposing offenses.

I think as long as both teams take care of the ball and avoid any bad turnovers leading to short fields, this game could finish somewhere around 17-13.

It will all depend on who gets that one key turnover.

For that reason, I am going to avoid picking a side and take under the low point total of 36.5.