Although they’re 45-point favorites, Saturday is already among the most anticipated games for Longhorn fans in the past two decades (8 p.m. ET on SECN+ against ULM).
Five-star quarterback prospect Arch Manning will make his first collegiate start with Quinn Ewers sidelined.
Texas fans are predictably excited after Manning threw for 220 yards and four touchdowns on only 12 attempts against UTSA last week while adding another 60-yard score on the ground.
But I’m unsure if head coach Steve Sarkisian wants to push his freshman, especially with SEC play starting next week.
Here's my ULM vs. Texas prediction and pick.
ULM vs Texas Odds, Spread, Pick
| ULM Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+43.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 / -110 | OFF |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-43.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 / -110 | OFF |
- Point Spread: ULM +43.5 · Texas -43.5
- Total: Over/Under 54.5
- Pick: ULM +44.5
ULM Football vs. Texas Football Preview
ULM Football
Monroe turned over its entire roster in the offseason, so we weren’t entirely sure what we’d see from the Warhawks in non-conference play.
So far, it looks surprisingly good.
They’ve vastly exceeded the oddsmaker's expectations, beating Jacksonville State by 16 as 4.5-point favorites and UAB by 26 as 11.5-point underdogs.
I thought they could be OK in the front seven behind upperclassmen linebackers Carl Glass and Travor Randle. Still, the defense has been borderline dominant, ranking seventh nationally in adjusted EPA per Play allowed and 11th nationally in EPA per dropback allowed.
Sure, they’ve only played Jackson State and UAB, but the Tigers are a well-respected FCS program and the Warhawks held Jacob Zeno to 167 yards on 32 attempts (5.2 per) with no touchdowns and an interception.
Plus, the win over UAB looks much more impressive after the Blazers pushed Arkansas to the brink last week.
The offense is still a question mark.
The Warhawks returned two of their top three rushers from last season, and they’ve rushed for more than 200 yards in each of their first two games behind Ahmad Hardy (161 yards, 4.9 YPC, 2 TD) and James Jones (110 yards, 5.5 YPC, 1 TD).
But General Booty can’t throw the ball downfield. He’s 19-for-30 passing for under 200 yards and one touchdown through two games with a four-yard average depth of target – for context, that’s the second-lowest mark among qualified FBS quarterbacks, ahead of only Zeno.
If you can’t push the ball downfield, Sun Belt defenses will eventually crowd the box and force Booty to attempt throws he can't make.
Still, I’m impressed by first-year head coach Bryant Vincent’s job through two weeks, and I expect the Warhawks to keep running the ball and playing defense.
Texas Football
What can we expect from Manning as QB1 in Austin?
A quick skim of his 247Sports recruiting page tells me:
- He’s of above-average size, athleticism, and mobility.
- He has good pocket awareness.
- He has elite arm talent, especially down the field and with velocity.
- He has exceptional intuition and awareness.
- He tends to rush his progressions, especially when targeting the short-to-intermediate part of the field.
That seems about right. Manning has shined in his limited opportunities, especially pushing the ball down the field, with a 10-yard average depth of target and 17.7 yards per attempt across 20 career dropbacks.
Regarding the rest of the team – is Texas the best team in college football?
I’m still partial to Georgia – and our team still power rates the Bulldogs higher – but there’s no doubting the Longhorns' talent.
It’s tough to judge their defense after playing three reasonably incoherent offenses (Colorado State, Michigan, UTSA).
However, the aerial attack looks legitimate (fifth nationally in EPA per Dropback), with Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond already establishing himself as the pass-catching alpha (13 catches on 15 targets for 157 yards and three touchdowns).
Houston transfer Matthew Golden has also chipped in more than enough as the WR2 (12 catches on 13 targets for 113 yards and three scores).
I also don't foresee a significant dropoff from Ewers to Manning under center.
I’m slightly worried about the rushing attack. Texas is supposed to have an elite offensive line, and while the unit has been excellent in pass-blocking situations (fifth in Pro Football Focus's grades), they've been less-than-stellar in the run game (107th in Line Yards).
So far, they haven’t blocked well for new bell-cow back Jerrick Gibson, who’s trying to replace Jonathan Brooks’ 1,100-yard 2023. And Gibson hasn’t helped, ranking 181st among 200 qualified FBS backs in yards after contact per rush (2.8).
Then again, Texas made the College Football Playoff last season despite ranking 114th nationally in Rush Success Rate.
Maybe it’s just not needed in Sark’s system.
ULM vs Texas Prediction
The Warhawks look great. I'm unsure if the market has caught up to how much better than expected they are.
Additionally, they’ll continue running a slow-paced, ground-and-pound offense that will shorten the game, keep the clock running and make it very difficult for Texas to cover a 45-point spread.
The Warhawks are also coming off a bye week, which could help Coach Vincent scheme his way into this impossible matchup in Austin – while also earning more valuable practice time with his brand-new overhauled roster.
Of course, ULM is at a monstrous talent disadvantage. But it’s hard to envision Sarkisian leaning on his freshman quarterback too hard with his starting quarterback hurt and a game with Mississippi State on deck.
It’s hard to envision Coach Sark pressing the entire team too hard. I’m guessing he’ll let Manning amass a substantial first-half lead before pulling the starters and sitting on the ball – and I don’t believe the Longhorns’ inefficient rush offense can or will push the lead out much further.
I’m banking on Texas taking it easy while Monroe overperforms, and I’m betting the Warhawks keep it well within the 45-point number for 60 minutes.
For what it’s worth, 44.5-point-plus favorites have cashed at around a 43% clip since 2005. They’re just 46-72-1 ATS over the past decade, suitable for a 39% clip.
Pick: ULM +44.5
How to Watch ULM vs Texas
| Location: | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network+ |
ULM vs Texas Betting Trends
- ULM is 2-0 SU and ATS.
- Texas is 3-0 SU and ATS, including 3-0 ATS as a favorite.
- ULM is 2-0 to the under.
College Football Weather: ULM vs Texas Weather Forecast
