NCAAF Odds, Predictions for UAB vs. Tulane

Hey, Blazers fans, I'm back to trash Trent Dilfer for the fifth consecutive week.

We cashed that over pretty easily last week, so let's keep the momentum going.

UAB heads to Tulane to take on the Green Wave on Saturday, so let's not waste anymore time and seek some betting value.

I wrote last week that this offense was good enough to move the ball against Georgia, and it certainly delivered. I have to say, if the Blazers had a coach with less ego, they'd be a lot more competitive in these games.

This offense continues to thrive under quarterback Jacob Zeno. UAB is inside the top 50 in Line Yards, Passing and Rushing Success Rate and Finishing Drives. The Blazers are also a speed demon on offense and waste very little time between snaps.

Tulane's defense is no slouch, but I still expect the Blazers to move the ball efficiently, especially through the air.

As for UAB's defense, yikes. I can't express how awful this defensive unit is, and the metrics don't tell the full story.

The Blazers are 132nd in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, 127th in Line Yards and 131st in Quality Drives.

Long story short, this unit doesn't get off the field very often.

Despite being questionable all week, quarterback Michael Pratt returned in Week 4. He wasn't overly impressive against Nicholls State, but he did complete 18-of-23 pass attempts (78%) for 190 yards and two touchdowns.

Last week might have seemed like a convincing win, but Tulane's defense allowed 335 total yards. That's certainly something to monitor prior to a matchup with a UAB team that's likely to put points on the scoreboard.

Despite the mediocre showing last week, Tulane's defense has led the charge. The Green Wave are top-15 in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards, but they've been gashed through the air on a consistent basis.

Offensively, the Green Wave seem to be struggling out of the gate, but some of their metrics are skewed because of Pratt's absence.

Being 130th in Rushing Success Rate isn't ideal, but any porous rushing attack can look elite against UAB's defense.

I think this matchup sets up nicely for Pratt, especially since he'll be an additional week healthier.

The Green Wave have struggled to finish drives this season, but given a healthy Pratt and the Blazers' horrific defense, that shouldn't be an issue in this spot.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UAB and Tulane match up statistically:

UAB Offense vs. Tulane Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	42	15
Line Yards	37	15
Pass Success	22	100
Havoc	106	6
Finishing Drives	48	38
Quality Drives	64	30

Tulane Offense vs. UAB Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	130	132
Line Yards	85	127
Pass Success	35	97
Havoc	75	85
Finishing Drives	104	112
Quality Drives	39	131

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	111	69
PFF Coverage	101	65
Special Teams SP+	129	35
Middle 8	105	108
Seconds per Play	23.5 (12)	29.2 (104)
Rush Rate	41.0% (126)	59.4% (14)

I locked in this over at 57 earlier in the week, but it's still a solid play at 58.5.

I'm pretty surprised to see a lot of early action coming in on the under, but it's great to see the total rise despite that.

The offenses will have great matchups to exploit, and I think Pratt shook enough rust off last week to be extremely efficient here.