NCAAF Odds, Picks & Predictions for Toledo vs UMass
Sam Wasson/Getty Images. Pictured: Taisun Phommachanh of UMass.
Toledo vs UMass Odds
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -105 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -115 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +750 |
The UMass Minutemen will host the Toledo Rockets on Saturday afternoon in Amherst, Mass.
UMass looked like its program was turning a corner after a Week 0 victory over New Mexico State, but the Minutemen have dropped four straight games.
Toledo looks to build off a tight win against Northern Illinois, and this rushing attack is primed for another big day against the UMass defense. Quarterback DeQuan Finn looked fantastic last week, completing 80% of his passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns.
Let's see if we can uncover the correct angle in this matchup and make a Toledo vs. UMass pick.
The Toledo offense is pretty special when all cylinders are firing. The Rockets are top-30 in multiple offensive categories, including Rushing and Passing Success Rate, Havoc Allowed and Line Yards.
Astonishingly enough, this is the No. 4 team in the entire nation in Finishing Drives. When they get the ball past the 40-yard line, there's a good chance they score a touchdown.
Running backs Jacquez Stuart and Peny Boone have created a lethal 1-2 punch in the backfield, so this offense has established its ability to beat you in multiple ways. The real question is, how legitimate are their wins?
Looking at this schedule, their only loss was a close contest against a reeling Illinois team. They've defeated Northern Illinois, Texas Southern, Western Michigan and San Jose State. Two of these games were 1-score contests.
I wouldn't go as far as to throw away a lot of these offensive statistics, but this is something to monitor as the week progresses. Defensively, they've been almost just as sharp.
The Rockets are 20th in Defensive Passing Success Rate, 68th in Line Yards and 35th in Finishing Drives. The offense is still the bread and butter of this squad, but it's definitely an encouraging sign that the defense is stepping up.
I wouldn't dare take an under in this game, but this clock should be moving quite frequently with the number of times Toledo runs the ball. I'm also not sold completely on this defense, especially after giving up over 400 yards to a Rocky Lombardi offense last week.
I backed UMass last week against Arkansas State, and before I could flip the game on, it was already practically over.
This defense is an absolute mess, and I just don't see how this group is going to adjust to the Toledo offense. I can't imagine the Minutemen getting many stops, as they've given up 36 PPG to their opponents.
Toledo should have its way with this defense, and if the Rockets don't turn the ball over I'd expect them to be on the field majority of this game. In a weird way, Toledo's fast-paced offense could benefit UMass if there are multiple three-and-outs.
However, the silver lining of the Minutemen is that they have a quality quarterback for the first time in years. Taisun Phommachanh has been the lone bright spot of this squad, and he'll have a chance to put up some big numbers in this matchup.
Toledo ranks 106th in Defensive Passing Success Rate, and that's against opponents with low-quality QB play. Phommachanh should absolutely shred this secondary.
I'd expect a lot of passing from UMass in this matchup, as the Toledo run defense is the strength of that unit. However, UMass has shown it's capable of running the ball, so if the Minutemen start to shred through the air, don't be surprised if they mix in some runs.
Toledo vs UMass
Betting Pick & Prediction
I swore that I would stop backing this UMass team after last week, but I can't help it and take the Minutemen again this week. This is the absolute bottom of the market for them, and quite frankly, this spread is over-inflated.
I spoke about Toledo's strength of schedule, and it's pretty pathetic. It could easily win this game 55-10, but I think UMass has the chops on offense to establish some success through the air.
I'm going to wait as long as possible to take UMass because I believe the market will continue to steam this number up until kickoff. However, if the number stays stagnant, I'll take UMass at the current number.
This isn't just holding your nose, but it's flat-out dumpster diving without a scuba mask. Let's hope Phommachanh has a big day through the air.
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