TCU vs Texas Odds, Pick: Longhorns to Win Big?
Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images. Pictured: Quarterback Quinn Ewers #3 of the Texas Longhorns.
TCU Horned Frogs vs Texas Longhorns Odds
| TCU Horned Frogs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +360 |
| Texas Longhorns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
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Texas looks to maintain its spot atop the Big 12 standings when the Longhorns travel to Fort Worth to take on TCU.
The Longhorns have rebounded from their loss to Oklahoma and are now 5-1 in the Big 12 with the conference championship game in their sights.
They survived a late charge from Kansas State, eventually winning the game in overtime. They finish out their season with Iowa State and Texas Tech after taking on the Horned Frogs, so it's very important the Longhorns don't slip up for the remainder of the regular season.
TCU has fallen on hard times after making the National Championship game last season, losing four of its last five conference games.
The Horned Frogs have struggled without starting quarterback Chandler Morris after he went down with an MCL sprain in their Oct. 7 loss to Iowa State. It looks like we could see him make an appearance here, but he's not going to start this game.
The Horned Frogs have flat-out struggled offensively since Morris got hurt. Freshman quarterback Josh Hoover has started the last three games and has already attempted 153 passes. Talk about throwing a kid into the fire.
Even though he's attempted a bunch of passes, he really hasn't been that efficient of a passer. Hoover is averaging only 6.6 yards per attempt and already has nine turnover-worthy plays.
Among the 150 quarterbacks who have attempted at least 100 passes, here's where Hoover ranks:
| Statistical Category | Rank |
|---|---|
| EPA | 62nd |
| Positive EPA Play % | 30th |
| Catchable Pass % | 123rd |
| On-Target % | 134th |
| Completion % | 92nd |
Data per Sports Info Solutions.
As you can see above, accuracy has been a problem for him, which is not ideal when you're throwing the ball 50-plus times a game.
The TCU rushing attack has been solid, ranking inside the top 25 in both Rushing Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards.
Emani Bailey has been an absolute workhorse, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt on 165 carries. However, this is by far the best front seven this team has faced this season.
The Horned Frogs defense is a tale of two stories: they've been solid against bad offenses but terrible against good ones. The last two weeks have not been promising either. Both Kansas State and Texas Tech put up over 5.5 yards per play and combined for 76 points.
The main problem TCU has had is stopping the run. Kansas State ran for 343 yards two weeks ago. and for the season, the Horned Frogs are outside the top 70 in both Rushing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Rush.
The other problem is they give up way too many big plays, ranking 88th in explosiveness allowed.
After missing the last few games with a shoulder injury, starting quarterback Quinn Ewers is back and will start against TCU.
It's a good thing for Texas, too — Maalik Murphy really wasn't lighting the world on fire in his two starts.
The Longhorns offense hasn't been as good as many predicted coming into the season, even with Ewers under center. With that being said, the Longhorns are 38th in EPA/Play and 11th in Quality Drives.
Their problem is that they're relying a little too much on explosive plays (50th in Success Rate versus 19th in Explosiveness) and are struggling to finish on their scoring opportunities, ranking 75th in Finishing Drives.
Before the injury, Ewers had been solid throwing the ball, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt.
It may be a little concerning that he only has six big-time throws, but that's by design since he's one of the best intermediate passers in college football.
Image via PFF.
As a result, Ewers is 18th in college football in EPA and has an 88.4% Catchable Pass Percentage, which is also top-20 in FBS, per Sports Info Solutions.
However, the key in this game is going to be Texas' rushing attack. With Ewers coming off a shoulder injury, my guess is Steve Sarkisian doesn't want to have him throw 40-plus passes in this game.
The Longhorns' rushing attack has struggled a bit this season, ranking 70th in Rushing Success Rate and 60th in Offensive Line Yards.
However, they've played the seventh-hardest strength of schedule this season, and the ground game has come alive against a couple below-average front sevens. Against BYU and Kansas State, Texas ran the ball for more than 400 yards and almost six yards per carry.
Texas' defense has been sound in all aspects this year, including ranking in the top 35 in both EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush Allowed. This unit has been very stout in the trenches, sitting top-10 in both Stuff Rate and Defensive Line Yards.
Even more important, Texas is No. 1 in the country in Power Success Rate Allowed, which measures the percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converts a first down or scores a touchdown.
The Longhorns have done a fantastic job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities by allowing only 3.0 points on drives that end inside their own 40-yard line, which is the 16th-best mark in the country.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas and TCU match up statistically:
Texas Offense vs. TCU Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 70 | 72 | |
| Line Yards | 60 | 81 | |
| Pass Success | 43 | 46 | |
| Havoc | 57 | 76 | |
| Finishing Drives | 75 | 47 | |
| Quality Drives | 11 | 68 |
TCU Offense vs. Texas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 16 | 10 | |
| Line Yards | 21 | 8 | |
| Pass Success | 29 | 40 | |
| Havoc | 44 | 88 | |
| Finishing Drives | 92 | 16 | |
| Quality Drives | 32 | 23 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 86 | 65 |
| PFF Coverage | 67 | 48 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 104 | 124 |
| Middle 8 | 91 | 84 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.2 (56) | 21.2 (2) |
| Rush Rate | 54.3% (63) | 45.9% (115) |
TCU vs Texas
Betting Pick, Prediction
With Ewers' return under center combined with how much Texas' rushing attack has improved the last two games, I'm not really sure how TCU stops the Texas offense unless the Longhorns continue struggling to finish off drives.
Hoover is a downgrade to Morris and really only had one good game against a bad BYU secondary. Texas ranks top-40 in Passing Success Rate Allowed and explosive passing allowed, which is big against a quarterback like Hoover, whose main success has come from throwing the ball deep.
This is also a big revenge spot for the Longhorns who lost to TCU in Austin last year, 17-10.
I have the Longhorns projected at -16.1, so I like the value on the Longhorns at -11.5 at DraftKings.
Pick: Texas -11.5
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