Penn State Nittany Lions vs Ohio State Buckeyes Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+4 -110 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | +160 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-4 -110 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | -190 |
According to past records, the Ohio State-Penn State rivalry has a pulse with the current head coaches.
Ryan Day has led Ohio State to a 35-0 record against teams in the Big Ten not named Michigan. James Franklin is 4-14 as the Penn State coach against Ohio State and Michigan.
From those two records, one could deduce that this game leans towards the Buckeyes, but everything points to this duel going down to the wire in 2023.
The Buckeyes made an example out of a progressing Purdue team in Week 7, but Ohio State struggled to look the part of a national title contender through the first five games. It scored less than 24 points against Indiana and Notre Dame and led Maryland by less than a touchdown in the fourth quarter.
Penn State has experienced a relatively smooth 2023, as no game has been within 17 points. A soft strength of schedule can be associated with that, though, as the Nittany Lions have faced Iowa, Northwestern and Illinois in Big Ten play.
The biggest question for this game is how much Franklin has left off film in preparation for OSU.
These are two of the most talented teams in the country, as the winner will have the inside track to the Big Ten title and the College Football Playoff.
Penn State Nittany Lions
There are plenty of similarities between this version of Penn State and the team that won the Rose Bowl last season. Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz runs a strict 4-3 defense consisting of a 39% blitz rate with a heavy tendency towards Cover 1.
Considering the impotency of the offenses on their schedule thus far, the Nittany Lions have been elite through the first half of the season. This is the best defense nationally in Quality Drives and against the pass, ranking best overall in Success Rate and explosives.
Cornerbacks Kalen King, Johnny Dixon and Cam Miller have led a secondary that ranks best overall nationally in on-target ball allowed, defined as quarterback passes that keep the target in stride.
The biggest question on the offensive side is the lack of explosives. Coordinator Mike Yurcich has seen very few long plays from scrimmage on both rushing and passing attempts.
Both Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen lead a running back stable that has produced just four gains over 20 yards. Both running backs average less than three yards after contact, a large drop from the 2022 numbers when Singleton averaged 4.6 yards after contact.
The great news is the top rank in Stuff Rate, giving confidence to a Penn State side that could run the ball for first downs and end the game in the fourth quarter.
The biggest mystery in this game is the passing depth of quarterback Drew Allar.
There has been no risk in his pass arsenal thus far, as he's thrown for 12 touchdowns with just three of them earning Big-Time Throw status. Allar has an average depth of target of 6.6 yards, one of the lowest of any starting quarterback in the nation.
Allar had 60 passes in mop-up duty last season, attempting a pass over 20 yards on seven occasions. Fast forward to this season, and Allar has attempted just 11 passes over 20 yards on 195 dropbacks.
There are plenty of unknowns that must be answered when it comes to Allar's pass explosive capabilities. Is this is by design from Yurcich, or is it a limitation for the sophomore quarterback?
Ohio State Buckeyes
While Day knows the Buckeyes' season will be judged on a performance against "that team up north," beating Penn State is essential for a trip to the College Football Playoff.
The Buckeyes have turned on the jets when needed this season, surviving a late surge from Notre Dame and boatracing the remaining schedule.
If there was a glaring weakness in Ohio State's toughest game, the Irish had their most success on Passing Downs, averaging nearly double the national average in Success Rate while gaining 11.6 yards per play.
The OSU defense has been electric in all counting stats, but a rank of 75th in Passing Downs Success Rate is an opportunity for opponents.
Coordinator Jim Knowles runs a 4-2-5 scheme exclusively, opting for blitzes on second-and-long situations. Both edge JT Tuimoloau and interior Michael Hall Jr. have created 25 quarterback hurries, which has resulted in a top-10 rank in pass rush.
Cornerback Denzel Burke has forced six incompletions this season, and he's a large contributor to Ohio State's rank of 13th in on-target rate allowed. Burke is on the list of players questionable due to injury, and the junior is vital to the Buckeyes' secondary.
Knowles has pivoted between Cover 1 and Cover 3 this season, as Ohio State ranks fifth in PFF coverage grading.
The biggest question for Ohio State is its lack of a rushing attack and the injuries associated with the backfield. TreVeyon Henderson, Miyan Williams and Chip Trayanum are all "hopeful" for playing time against Penn State.
Williams hasn't lived up to seasons past, but both Trayanum and Henderson average more than 3.2 yards after contact.
Henderson has five explosive rushing attempts on the season, but the Buckeyes' rank of 50th in Rushing Success Rate shows a unit that's struggling to gain the necessary yardage.
The responsibility to score may come down to the arm of Kyle McCord, who brings an 11-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio into the game. While those numbers show stability, he's made 10 Big-Time Throws and seven Turnover-Worthy Plays.
McCord hasn't played a single game without recording a Big-Time Throw, as most of his troubles have come when opponents send the blitz. McCord is just 15-of-42 passing in pressure pockets, signaling that Diaz will have blitz packages ready for the Ohio State offensive line.
McCord has been excellent in Success Rate and explosives against Cover 3 but has struggled to surpass the national average against Cover 1 and quarters.
Penn State vs Ohio State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Penn State and Ohio State match up statistically:
Penn State Offense vs Ohio State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 12 | 18 | |
| Line Yards | 22 | 39 | |
| Pass Success | 37 | 7 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 51 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 8 | |
| Quality Drives | 7 | 3 |  |
Ohio State Offense vs Penn State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 50 | 6 | |
| Line Yards | 30 | 6 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 1 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 18 | 3 | |
| Quality Drives | 17 | 1 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 96 | 16 |
| PFF Coverage | 6 | 4 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 101 | 17 |
| Middle 8 | 19 | 4 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.9 (68) | 27.0 (70) |
| Rush Rate | 57.9% (19) | 49.6% (88) |
Penn State vs Ohio State
Betting Predictions, Picks
From 2016-18, this was a series that had razor-thin margins — a combined five points separated the three games. The series has been all Buckeyes since 2019, with an average deciding point differential of 11.5.
Penn State may have its most talented team on both sides of the ball since the close margins of five years ago, but there are gaps in the analytics where Ohio State has an advantage.
The Buckeyes are 17th in Special Teams SP+ in comparison to the Nittany Lions' rank of 101st. Efficient Kickoff Return is one of the primary areas of advantage for Ohio State, as its overall special teams efficiency ranks 11th compared to Penn State's rank 41st.
If field position is a concern for Penn State, the lack of explosives will make it even tougher for the Nittany Lions to get scoring opportunities. Yurcich oversees an offense that has expected points rankings of 122nd on the ground and 131st in the air.
Former quarterback Sean Clifford had 46 attempts beyond 20 yards, which begs the question: Is Allar being held back, or is he not efficient throwing downfield?
Penn State is not expected to replicate Notre Dame's success in passing downs, as it brings a mid-FBS Success Rate in passing downs through a soft strength of schedule (112th).
This is generally a slow starting game, as the first quarter has exceeded 10 points just once since the 2017 season. Both Penn State and Ohio State's lowest scoring differential by quarter this season has been in the first frame as both offenses run scripted plays.
There's an expectation that Ohio State will try to establish the run with any healthy running back, while Penn State continues to work the short field. That makes the first-half under worth the wager.
With Emeka Egbuka potentially on the shelf for Ohio State, the Nittany Lions will attempt to defend Marvin Harrison Jr.
Penn State couldn't keep track of the future NFL first-round pick in a game that turned into a fourth-quarter shootout. No single Penn State defender had success defending Harrison, who tallied 185 yards with a catch on 10-of-12 targets.
For Harrison to torment the Penn State secondary, McCord must play his best game of the season.
Diaz is sure to dial up pressure on the Ohio State quarterback, as he's calling blitzes at an aggressive 56% rate this season with a high success in creating negative plays.
McCord is not the only quarterback scheduled to struggle, as Allar will be tested to throw explosives in third-and-long situations.
Only KeAndre Lambert-Smith has flashed elusiveness, generating the only yards-per-route-run mark above two of all Penn State targets.
The inability of Penn State to throw explosives limits the route tree to slants, crossers and short play-action passing. The Nittany Lions must have methodical, long drives to get into scoring position.
Action Network projects Ohio State as a favorite by a field goal, as this game should follow a long script featuring first-half jabs before the haymakers come in the fourth quarter.
This series should return to the 2016-18 nail-biter matchups, which gives the points on Penn State value.
Look for a low-scoring first half, with the first team to execute explosives being the outright winner.
