Alabama vs Ole Miss Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
There might not be a game with more moving parts in Week 4 of college football than the SEC showcase featuring Ole Miss and Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
The Rebels have yet to beat the Crimson Tide in the Lane Kiffin era, covering two of their three games since the pandemic season of 2020. Over the summer, the head coach thanked the media for giving Alabama all the motivational ammunition it needed, as the entire season in Oxford rides on beating the Tide.
In his news conference on Sunday, Kiffin went as far as to talk specifics about Alabama's defensive scheme, inferring that coordinator Kevin Steele is no longer calling plays. Tide coach Nick Saban was quick to clear up any confusion on staff duties.
"Kevin Steele is the defensive coordinator," Saban said.
There was already a bevy of news from the Alabama side before the latest Kiffin comments. Elusive in naming a starter through the offseason and the first three weeks, Saban landed on quarterback Jalen Milroe, who started the first two games but did not play against South Florida in Week 3, to take duties under center in the SEC opener for both teams.
The Alabama offense is in desperate need of a jolt after producing just 41 points combined against Texas and USF.
All eyes in the SEC will descend on Bryant-Denny Stadium, where Ole Miss has a chance to make noise in the West Division standings.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama's returns at quarterback have been rough through three games. Milroe took the start against Middle Tennessee and Texas, generating four turnover-worthy plays against the Longhorns.
Two interceptions and two fumbles contributed to an offensive momentum killer rank that has fallen to 77th in FBS. Milroe has a 29.2% pressure-to-sack ratio, which ranks in the top 10 of any quarterback with at least 60 dropbacks on the season.
The Alabama offensive line has struggled to provide protection, falling to 101st in pass blocking, per PFF.
One area of concern last season was the ability to create separation on the outside at the skill positions. In that respect, Isaiah Bond and Kobe Prentice have been excellent for the offense, as each has generated at least 2.3 yards per route run on a combined 18 targets.
In combination with a running game featuring Roydell Williams and his 4.6 yards after contact, the only concern for the Crimson Tide is the offensive line and Milroe's decision-making.
The defense has been fantastic at harassing opposing quarterbacks, specifically from the edge. Defensive ends Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell lead the team with 29 combined pressures. Meanwhile, Deontae Lawson ranks third nationally in individual stops.
Alabama has allowed one of the lowest numbers of 10-yard gains, with the only concerning factor centering around Havoc. The Tide fall to mid-FBS or worse in categories such as pass breakups and tackles for loss.
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss is one of the few teams still undefeated against the spread. There certainly is a bit of mirage in that statement after nearly suffering a loss to a Tulane team with a backup quarterback and a couple of late garbage-time touchdowns against Georgia Tech.
The Rebels escaped the Yellow Jackets without further injury to their skill positions.
Running back Quinshon Judkins carried the ball 13 times after being listed as doubtful, while explosive wide receiver Tre Harris sat out the Week 3 game with a knee injury.
Despite the injuries, quarterback Jaxson Dart has plenty of explosiveness with slot receiver Jordan Watkins.
Even with a strength-of-schedule rank of 78th, the Rebels have been one of the best offenses in the nation.
Kiffin will have the ability to attack the Alabama defense on the ground or through the air, and defensive coordinator Pete Golding could provide an assist after an extended stint in the same role under Saban.
Speaking of the Ole Miss defense, the nonconference slate was unable to expose any potential flaws of the Landshark defense. Safeties Daijahn Anthony and John Saunders Jr. have provided three pass breakups apiece.
At least 22 players have logged 40 snaps on defense, as Golding is committed to heavy rotations to keep players fresh.
The most impressive aspect of Ole Miss' defensive start is passing downs and scoring opportunities. Ole Miss is now a top-25 team in Success Rate and explosives in passing downs. Opponents have only logged eight drives past the Rebels' 40-yard line, resulting in an average of 1.6 points per attempt.
Alabama vs Ole Miss
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and Alabama match up statistically:
Ole Miss Offense vs Alabama Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 77 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 9 | 31 | |
| Havoc | 50 | 66 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 49 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 32 | |
Alabama Offense vs Ole Miss Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 37 | 33 |  |
| Line Yards | 35 | 40 | |
| Pass Success | 103 | 19 | |
| Havoc | 97 | 37 | |
| Finishing Drives | 17 | 4 | |
| Quality Drives | 85 | 41 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 22 | 13 |
| PFF Coverage | 45 | 7 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 58 | 24 |
| Middle 8 | 24 | 3 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.0 (5) | 27.0 (72) |
| Rush Rate | 54.4% (99) | 61.3% (37) |
Alabama vs Ole Miss
Betting Pick & Prediction
The first handicap for this game comes in the form of a power-rating difference between Ole Miss and Texas. While the two teams have completely separate identities, the Rebels are 7-point underdogs just two weeks after the Longhorns had the same market number entering Bryant-Denny Stadium.
The Action Network Power Ratings would make Texas a 4.5-point favorite over Ole Miss on a neutral field, indicating Alabama has dropped in rating two consecutive weeks to the Horns and South Florida. There certainly is justification for this number based on the Crimson Tide's performance over the past eight quarters.
The USF box score can be thrown out from an offensive standpoint when it comes to Alabama. Both Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner needed snaps in non-garbage time to see if a resolution could be made at the QB position. Both quarterbacks were lackluster, completing just five passes in a downpour.
The biggest worry is the running backs and offensive line consistently missing stunts and blitzes. South Florida posted five sacks and eight tackles for loss, producing a 43.2% Stuff Rate against the Crimson Tide's offensive line.
In 116 rushing attempts, Alabama has been hit at the line of scrimmage 58 times and has been stuffed 27 times.
Unless coordinator Tommy Rees tailors the offense to Milroe's strengths, Alabama will continue to struggle.
The question remains whether or not the Ole Miss offense can take advantage of the Crimson Tide defense. Tulane's defensive line stuffed 15-of-31 rushing attempts, giving Ole Miss a Stuff Rate 20% higher than the national average. The Rebels were repugnant in passing downs against the Green Wave, averaging three yards per play with a low 24% Success Rate in 25 snaps.
The biggest key number in totals is 55, where the market currently resides as of this writing.
All of the questions in this game come on the offensive side of the ball for both teams.
Will Judkins return to form after averaging 2.8 yards per carry against Georgia Tech? Will the Alabama offensive line protect Milroe against three- and four-man blitz attempts? Will Rees get the Crimson Tide offense out of a pro-style five-step drop and allow Milroe to run mesh RPO plays? Will Ole Miss' Harris be fully recovered from a knee injury? How much of a rust factor is there with transfer wide receiver Zakhari Franklin?
The constant for these teams has been the defense. With Ole Miss owning a quality ranking in Defensive Finishing Drives, along with top-35 marks in tackling and preventing explosives, it could limit Alabama's scoring.
Ole Miss scoring has not been linear to this point. In two FBS games, the Rebels have generated a combined 41 points in quarters one through three, exploding for 44 points in the last two fourth quarters.
With Kiffin ready to switch play-calling based on Alabama's perceived switch in defensive play-calling, look to take a first-half under with so much noise coming to Tuscaloosa in Week 4.
