We continue the NCAAF Week 7 slate with odds, predictions and three Saturday afternoon betting spots, featuring Florida vs. South Carolina and more.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 7, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 22-17-0 +3.18 units (56.4%)
- Overall: 67-37-1 +26.60 units (64.4%)
Stuckey's 3 Saturday Afternoon Week 7 NCAAF Situational Spots
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | UMass +43 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Illinois +14 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | South Carolina -2 |
UMass +43 at Penn State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
This might be the last straw for anybody who is still reading this, but let's keep the good times rolling by backing UMass on the road in Happy Valley against an undefeated Penn State squad that owns the longest cover streak in the nation.
The logic here is pretty simple outside of showing value on the number.
First off, this is a horrible spot for Penn State. It's playing a cupcake the week before one of the biggest games of the season against Ohio State.
I doubt the Nittany Lions want to show too much and will likely value the rest and health of some starters once they inevitably build a big lead in the second half.
Secondly, the Penn State offense has zero explosiveness. In fact, it ranks second-to-worst in that category nationally, ahead of only Eastern Michigan. This is a methodical offense that grinds it down the field, which just eats up the clock with the new rules.
Yes, the Nittany Lions have covered every game this year with almost no explosiveness on offense, but they've benefited immensely from their dominant defense, which has given them a plethora of short fields to work with. That has led to the nation's best turnover margin of +11.
Plus, they really did have no business covering against Northwestern, West Virginia and even Illinois in a game where they only outgained the Illini by 30.
Meanwhile, the UMass defense has been a major disappointment under defensive-minded head coach Don Brown, but the offense has exceeded expectations despite dealing with a number of quarterback injuries.
In their past three games, the Minutemen have averaged just under 28 points and 450 yards per game and now have starting quarterback Taisun Phommachanh back healthy under center.
The Minutemen also should have a few extra wins in their pocket after hard-luck losses against Eastern Michigan and New Mexico. Despite outgaining the Eagles and Lobos by 260 combined yards, they lost by three in overtime and two in regulation on a last-minute touchdown.
This team is still bad, but not as bad as the version we've seen in recent seasons since it actually has an offense with a pulse and a bit more respectable depth.
In fairness, this is a massive step up in class for the UMass offense, so it's hard to expect much against one of the best defenses in the country. However, I can see it finding the end zone once or twice even if it has to come late in a blowout.
Although, I'm not even sure Penn State will cover even in a shutout with how its offense has been operating.
I can't wait for James Franklin to run a fake knee double reverse pass up 40 with 11 seconds left with the third-string punter.
Notable Nugget
Penn State is 10-0-1 ATS over its past 11 games, including the postseason.
| | |
Illinois +14 at Maryland
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
OK, since there's no way anybody is left, I can now recommend an Illinois team I've mocked all season en route to an 0-6 ATS start.
I hated everything about this Illini team coming into the season, starting with the defense that lost a trio of defensive backs taken in the top 75 of the NFL Draft and a highly-respected coordinator in Ryan Walters.
I've also never been high on Ole Miss transfer quarterback Luke Altmyer, who's operating an offense that sorely misses running back Chase Brown, who also left for the NFL.
However, to me, this is the bottom of the market on Illinois in game I project closer to 10.5.
Plus, this doesn't set up as a great spot for Maryland after a hard-fought loss at Ohio State in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated.
The Terps, who have historically struggled after playing teams ranked inside the top 10 (5-13-1 ATS), could come out a bit flat for this one.
Illinois will likely get a few offensive linemen back, which should help up front.
The running back room has been decimated by injuries, but I actually like what I've seen from the young backs who will get the bulk of the workload now for a Bret Bielema offense that always wants to ugly up a game by leaning on a methodical ground-and-pound attack.
That could potentially work in this particular matchup against a Maryland run defense that can be pushed around.
Illinois also has been the unluckiest team in the country in terms of field position, which has certainly deflated its numbers on both sides of the ball over a small sample size. There are also some other indicators that suggest some potential looming positive regression.
Ultimately, this number is just too high in a prime buy-low spot with a team that stylistically is intriguing as a bigger underdog going up against a team coming off an emotional loss.
It also doesn't hurt that Illinois has one extra day of rest and preparation after playing last Friday night.
Notable Nugget
At Illinois, head coach Brett Bielema owns a sparkling 9-2 ATS (81.8%) mark as an underdog of more than a field goal, covering by over 10 points per game. That includes a 6-1 mark against the number on the road.
| | |
South Carolina -2 vs. Florida
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
OK, I'll finally offer a reasonable take where I won't get tomatoes thrown at me. Let's fade Graham Mertz on the road in the SEC, where we essentially just need to win the game.
We also get to back a South Carolina team that should come in much healthier (maybe wide receiver Antwane "Juice" Wells even returns) than it has been after a bye week — a situation where head coach Shane Beamer has thrived in his first two years.
That extra time should also really benefit a very young offensive line that has clearly needed time to jell.
Plus, it will get to face a Gators squad that has dropped 13 of its last 14 away from the Swamp, including a bad loss at Vanderbilt and a 23-point loss at South Carolina in 2021.
Not only will the Gamecocks come in with much fresher legs and more time to prepare, but they have also talked at length about wanting to avenge last year's embarrassing 38-6 loss in Gainesville. I expect them to come out with their hair on fire against a quarterback that hasn't shown well in his career against competent opponents.
This is still a very limited Florida passing attack and an overrated defense that got shredded by Kentucky and couldn't even slow down a Utah offense with a backup quarterback who hasn't found any footing since that season-opening win.
Plus, not only does this set up as a nice situational spot for South Carolina, but I believe it also comes into this SEC showdown a bit undervalued in the market after one of the most difficult schedules in the country to date with all three losses coming against ranked teams with a combined 15-1 record in Tennessee, North Carolina and Georgia. All three of those also came away from home.
I'll side with the home team coming off of a bye with the better quarterback laying under a field goal.
Notable Nugget
Shane Beamer is a perfect 3-0 ATS with extra rest during his young head coaching tenure, covering by over three touchdowns per game.
His South Carolina team actually won all three games outright as underdogs against SEC opponents.
