We continue the NCAAF Week 8 slate with odds, predictions and two afternoon betting spots, featuring Pitt vs. Wake Forest and more.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 8, here's the full piece.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 27-22-0 +2.68 units (55.1%)
- Overall: 72-42-1 +26.60 units (63.2%)
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Stuckey's 2 Afternoon NCAAF Situational Spots
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | Minnesota +4.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Wake Forest -115 |
Minnesota +4.5 at Iowa
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
On the surface, this is a great sell-high spot on an Iowa team that's playing its eighth straight game against a Minnesota team that should come in much fresher after a much-needed bye week.
The Gophers should also be a bit healthier with the likely return of running back Darius Taylor, who missed the past two games, and the probable season debut of their best linebacker, Cody Lindenberg.
I also don't mind buying semi-low on a 3-3 Minnesota team that has two losses against undefeated North Carolina and Michigan in addition to one against Northwestern in a game it led by 21 in the fourth quarter.
The Hawkeyes have inexplicably started the season with a 6-1 record, but the offense has never been in a worse place, which is saying something for Iowa.
After an upset win over Wisconsin, which lost its starting quarterback to injury, I'm itching to fade this team, especially as a favorite.
Not only does Iowa have one of the worst offenses in the country (ranking dead last in Success Rate) with a backup quarterback now under center, but it also lost its only two reliable weapons to injury in tight ends Luke Lachey and now Erick All, who led the team with two catches for 19 yards last week.
Since taking over as the starter, Deacon Hill has completed 23-of-62 passes (37.1%) for 262 yards in three games in which Iowa was outgained by 52, 95 and 127 yards. That's really bad.
So, how have the Hawkeyes managed to pull these games out? Well, the same way Iowa always does: turnovers, defense and special teams.
However, it's a different story when you need the Hawkeyes to win by margin against an absolute snail in Minnesota. In a game with an absurdly low total of 32.5, points should come at a premium, which makes the underdog even more enticing in a game that could realistically end 13-10.
From a matchup perspective, Iowa simply can't take advantage of a Minnesota secondary that has allowed far too many explosive passing plays. The offense will once again have to solely rely on a rushing attack that ranks 125th in rushing EPA and 128th in Rush Success Rate. Meanwhile, the Gophers, who want to run as much as any team in the country, may find some success on the ground against an Iowa defense that grades out below the national average in Rush Success Rate allowed.
It really can only build any margin with turnovers or special teams play in a game that should have a rapidly moving clock. I'll take my chances with the fresher and healthier road dog against one of the worst offenses in the country.
Notable Nugget
As a home favorite of more than four points in conference play, Iowa has gone just 14-26-3 ATS (35%) since 2005. Over that span, only Florida State has been less profitable in this spot.
Wake Forest ML -115 vs. Pitt
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
This appears to be a prime spot to buy low on the Demon Deacons after they dropped their third straight game in embarrassing fashion at Virginia Tech.
However, I believe that effort was severely impacted by the close loss at Clemson the week before in addition to a flu bug that hit the locker room leading up to the game.
Dave Clawson, one of the best motivational head coaches in college football, should have his troops ready to go for a homecoming game Wake Forest desperately needs after an 0-3 start to ACC play.
It will take on a Pitt team that finds itself in a tough situational spot after an upset win over Louisville with games against Notre Dame and Florida State looming on deck. Can you say sandwich?
The Panthers did look a bit better on offense after turning to Penn State transfer Christian Veilleux at quarterback, but last week's win had more to do with the flat spot the Cardinals found themselves in and a 3-0 turnover edge. In the end, Pittsburgh was still outgained, 430-288, and still has major issues across the board.
The Wake Forest offense is undoubtedly broken, as opposing defenses have caught on to the fact that they can just blitz Mitch Griffis — who should get the start after getting pulled last week — to no end against an offensive line that simply can't hold up.
That's certainly concerning against an aggressive Pitt defense, but I still believe the small home favorite holds a bit of value in a great situational spot.
Notable Nugget
Following a multi-game losing streak, Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson is 15-7 ATS (68.2%) since 2005.
Among nearly 400 coaches in our Action Labs database, Clawson only trails former Kansas State head man Bill Snyder in terms of profitability in this spot.
North Carolina sports betting is now live! Demon Deacons fans, check out our sportsbook reviews to sign up for your preferred books ahead of Wake Forest vs. Pitt today.
