Maryland vs Michigan State Odds
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
What a week it’s been in East Lansing.
Just two days after boosting Michael Penix Jr.’s Heisman highlight reel, Michigan State cut ways with head coach Mel Tucker for cause. The Spartans emerge with interim coach Harlon Barnett at the helm, looking to rinse the sour taste of a historically bad defensive performance against Washington last week.
Maryland – perfect record in tow – hits the road for the first time this season to open Big Ten play, despite needing to fight out of double-digit holes in each of the last two weeks.
With a new era ready to officially begin for Michigan State, are the Spartans being underrated as home dogs, or will Taulia Tagovailoa and the Terrapins' offense bring an encore performance of Penix and the Huskies?
Maryland Terrapins
Folks in College Park have been taking “The Tortoise and the Hare” fable a little too literally with the Terrapins getting off to slow starts. Mike Locksley’s Maryland team has fallen in 14-0 deficits each of the last two weeks, only to go on and outscore the two opponents by a combined score of 80-6 after falling in that hole.
Virginia was Maryland’s most recent "hare" to pull out to an early, two-touchdown lead, before the Terrapins poured on 42 unanswered. Tagovailoa had his best day of the season, passing for 342 yards and a touchdown on 19-of-30 passing.
Tagovailoa entered the season as arguably the Big Ten’s best returning quarterback, and he hasn’t played his way out of pole position. Tagovailoa currently leads the conference in yards per game (296.3), despite losing three of his top-five pass-catchers from a season ago.
The fifth-year senior has to be licking his chops after seeing what Penix did to this Michigan State secondary.
While Maryland has one of the better passing attacks of the Big Ten, its run game can more than hold its own. Roman Hemby leads a Maryland rushing attack that ranks 28th in Run Success.
The sophomore running back is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and is fourth in the Big Ten in all-purpose yards.
Michigan State Spartans
The month of September hasn't treated Michigan State kindly, and the Spartans' most recent outing at home against Washington was a burn-the-tapes type of game.
The Tucker drama that potentially caused a distraction for the Spartans last week has reached a resolution in his firing, so whether the team responds fired up or with a dud like it did last week remains to be seen.
With Payton Thorne off to greener pastures on the Plains, quarterback Noah Kim started the season in a fashion worthy of optimism from fans.
The junior quarterback passed for 571 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in Michigan State’s first two games against Central Michigan and Richmond. But his play, along with the team, took a turn for the worse against the Huskies. He finished with just 136 yards on 12-of-31 passing with his first pick of the year.
Whether or not Kim plays on a level somewhere between his hot start and his performance against Washington matters much less than how the Spartans' defense performs against a quality Maryland offense.
The Spartans' secondary has been a major weak point for each of the last two seasons, and last week was pretty convincing evidence that 2023 might be more of the same.
Michigan State’s passing defense finished second-to-last and last in the Big Ten, respectively, in 2021 and 2022, and its performance against Washington was historically bad. The Huskies threw for 536 passing yards en route to 713 total yards – the most allowed in Spartans history.
Washington likely has the best receiving trio in the nation, but Tagovailoa and the Terrapins are no slouch. Last season, Tagovailoa passed for 314 yards against Michigan State, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him have a similar performance this time around.
Maryland vs Michigan State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Maryland and Michigan State match up statistically:
Maryland Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 28 | 70 | |
| Line Yards | 39 | 38 |  |
| Pass Success | 41 | 91 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 24 | |
| Finishing Drives | 28 | 40 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 45 | |
Michigan State Offense vs. Maryland Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 90 | 91 | |
| Line Yards | 115 | 113 | |
| Pass Success | 71 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 90 | 123 | |
| Finishing Drives | 49 | 11 | |
| Quality Drives | 97 | 17 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 18 | 82 |
| PFF Coverage | 39 | 117 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 41 | 123 |
| Middle 8 | 13 | 76 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.2 (58) | 25.7 (45) |
| Rush Rate | 48.1% (93) | 51.3% (78) |
Maryland vs Michigan State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Michigan State is in major need of a get-right game to stabilize the program and get the season back on the tracks, but that's not what Maryland is. The Terrapins are best on offense (passing) at what the Spartans struggle the most to defend.
Even when Maryland opts to run the ball with Hemby — who nearly crossed the 1,000-yard mark as a freshman last season — Michigan State showed a problem slowing Washington’s ground game.
The Huskies ran for 177 yards on 33 carries, despite the Spartans knowing that Washington was trying to run the game out in the second half.
Maryland’s offense is going to have no problem scoring, and Kim and Michigan State have yet to show they can put up numbers against a Power Five defense.
I don’t always feel great backing a road favorite, but this feels like a pretty comfortable spot to fade the Spartans amid all the disarray.
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