Kansas vs Oklahoma Predictions, Odds: Breaking Down the Spread Pick for Saturday

Kansas vs Oklahoma Odds

By Tanner McGrath

I still think Oklahoma’s overvalued.

Let’s take a deep look at the Sooners’ resume.

They beat up doormats Arkansas State and Tulsa by a combined score of 139-1.

They then beat SMU by 17 as 16.5-point favorites despite being outgained (367 to 365) and trailing late in the fourth.

They then beat Cincinnati by 14 despite the Bearcats scoring only six points on six drives inside the OU 40-yard line, including only three on their final four red-zone drives.

They crushed Iowa State, but a pick-six and a blocked punt safety inflated the final score.

Then, the Sooners posted an impressive 34-30 road victory over Texas. But still, they were outgained in that one (527 to 486), squeaking by thanks to a +3 turnover margin and an improbable goal-line stand. Texas also committed nine penalties for 70 yards, while Oklahoma committed four for 30.

Finally, the regression train hit them last week, and the Sooners showed us who they really are – a team that can just hold off UCF at home. The Knights are still winless in Big 12 play, by the way.

The Sooners boast an incredible statistical profile, but their numbers are way overinflated because the ball keeps bouncing their way.

Eventually, the tide will turn. That’s how football works.

The Jayhawks boast an explosive offense. They rank top-10 in EPA per Play, even with backup Jason Bean under center. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is a schematic wizard, piecing together one of the more complex attacks in college football.

This Jayhawks offense dropped 42 on Oklahoma last year in Norman with Bean under center, keeping the game within 10 points.

Kansas can keep up with Oklahoma and keep this one within single digits at home against an overinflated Sooners squad.

For what it’s worth, our Action PRO projections make this line Kansas +8. I suspect the final score will land somewhere around 41-34.

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By Mike Ianniello

I’m sorry to tell you, but the week to bet against Oklahoma, call it overvalued and fade it on a letdown spot coming off the big win over Texas was last week. The Sooners came out flat and laid an egg against UCF on Saturday and guess what … they still won.

That makes me love the Sooners even more this week. They already had their scare. They had the wake-up call. But they escaped with the win to keep the momentum going and their season alive. Now they can get back to business.

And that business is dump-trucking every team they play. The 7-0 Sooners have outscored their opponents by an average of 27 points. They rank fourth in the country with 43.1 points per game and sit seventh with 496.9 yards per game.

Dillon Gabriel dealt with injuries last season, but he's played himself into Heisman contention in his second year in Norman. He's thrown 19 touchdown passes with just three interceptions and is completing 71.2% of his passes.

Gabriel has the Sooners sitting fourth in the country in Passing Success Rate, and he has a ton of weapons on the outside in Jalil Farooq, Nic Anderson and the reliable Drake Stoops. They're all averaging more than 45 yards receiving per game.

This offense has a ton of depth to attack defenses with.

While Oklahoma doesn’t have the traditional bell-cow running back it's had in years past, Marcus Major and Tawee Walker have shared the backfield and found success. The running game takes a back seat to the passing attack for sure, but they have done a great job on Standard Downs to keep the offense on schedule and the chains moving.

Even in the Sooners' slip-up week, they put up 31 points on UCF and averaged 5.3 yards per play. This offense can score on anybody and everybody, and they're going to come out fired up and ready to run it up on this extremely vulnerable Kansas defense.

McGrath: The regression train doesn’t just stop, Mike. It keeps hitting you until the Football Gods feel they’ve dished out enough justice for the injustices.

The Sooners are still +10 in turnover margin (second nationally). They’re still converting on fourth down at an 80% clip (sixth nationally) and third down at a 50% clip (11th nationally). Their opponents have converted only 28% of their third-down opportunities (fifth nationally) and only 71% of their red-zone opportunities (16th nationally).

UCF kept the game within two points last week, despite going 4-for-16 on third down. The Knights averaged 8.6 yards per pass.

The regression train will keep hitting. It won’t screech to a halt because of one “letdown” spot.

The Sooners’ rush game doesn’t just “take a back seat to the passing attack,” as you put it. They have a mediocre ground game, ranking 45th in EPA per Rush and averaging 4.1 YPC behind a front five that ranks 96th in Offensive Line Yards. Major has 25 more carries than anybody on the roster and is averaging fewer than four yards per carry.

Gabriel has salvaged this offense with his heroic play, but Andrel Anthony is now out for the season with a knee injury. He has the second-most scrimmage yards on the team.

Gabriel sorely missed Anthony’s presence last week, posting his second-worst game of the season by passing yards (253) and YPA (6.7). He also threw a pick.

The regression train could hit Gabriel a little harder, too. He has 19 touchdowns to three interceptions but only 11 Big Time Throws to nine Turnover Worthy Plays.

On the other side of the ball, the Sooners boast a solid rush defense but are vulnerable in the secondary, where they rank 45th in PFF’s coverage grades and 10th in Pass Explosiveness Allowed.

I suspect that’s where Lance Leipold, Kotelnicki and Bean will attack, just as they did last year when Bean threw for 265 yards at 9.8 YPA with four touchdowns on four Big Time Throws.

Ianniello: Yes, Kansas scored 42 points against the Sooners last season. But it scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter when the game was out of reach. Oklahoma put up 52 in that game. The Sooners totaled 701 yards of offense on the Jayhawks.

This year’s Oklahoma team is playing a lot better on offense than the one that torched Kansas last year. The Sooners will once again have no problem shredding this Kansas defense. The Jayhawks rank 117th in the country in Success Rate on defense. Everybody moves the ball on them.

They're especially dreadful against the pass. Kansas ranks 122nd at defending the pass and seems to be getting worse as the season has gone on. Its secondary has been terrible, allowing opponents to complete 66.1% of their passes, the worst in the Big 12.

The Jayhawks let Alan Bowman throw for 336 yards against them last game, and Kedon Slovis lit them up for 357 yards last month.

I know stats like turnover margin and third-down rate can sometimes indicate negative regression is coming, but not always. Oklahoma isn’t just benefiting from lucky bounces. It has a great turnover margin because it protects the football.

On average, you should expect to lose about half your fumbles. The Sooners have only lost two fumbles this season, but they have only put the ball on the turf six times all season. So, they’ve maybe gotten “lucky” once.

The Sooners are terrific on third down because they have the eighth-most accurate quarterback in the country and Jeff Lebby is one of the best offensive coordinators in the country.

So, Tanner is telling you that Oklahoma protects the football, converts on third and fourth downs to keep drives alive and scores when it gets in the red zone.

Sounds like a team I would want to bet on!

McGrath: The Kansas defense is rough. But the Rock Chalk offense can keep them in any game, especially this one, given Kansas is coming off its bye.

With how smart and sophisticated the Kansas coaching staff is, having two weeks to prepare is massive. The Jayhawks will have plenty of new looks and wrinkles to throw Oklahoma’s way.

The bye week also gives a considerable advantage to Bean. It’ll be the first time he’s had a significant number of practices with the first team after being thrown into the fire against Texas in Week 5.

Lebby and Gabriel are great. Kotelnicki and Bean at home with an extra prep week could be better.

And while Lebby and Gabriel are missing one of their best playmakers, Kansas used the extra week to get fully healthy. Aside from Daniels, there’s only one Jayhawk on the injury report — running back Billy Conaway — and he hasn’t played a snap all year.

The Jayhawks are catching 10 points at home. Their defense will probably keep them from winning this game, but their fresh, ingenious offense will keep them within striking distance for 60 minutes.

Ianniello: I think Tanner is underselling the drop off from Daniels to Bean. Just because Bean has played a lot, doesn’t mean he's on the same level as Daniels.

Bean has nine touchdowns and two interceptions in four starts, but those numbers are largely inflated by last week’s five-touchdown game against Oklahoma State. He completed less than 10 passes in the prior two games. Bean has just five Big Time Throws with four Turnover Worthy Plays all season.

He's played on and off for five seasons and has 41 Big Time Throws and 38 Turnover Worthy Plays. Teams have done a better job of keeping him in the pocket this season, and he has just 10 rushing yards over the last two weeks and doesn’t have a rushing score this year.

We know Brent Venables knows how to coach an elite defense, and that's what he has this season. The Sooners defense is 17th in the country in Success Rate. The unit rates top-30 against the pass and the run, but it has been especially strong at stopping the run.

That matches up perfectly with what Kansas wants to do. The Jayhawks are 15th in the country in Rushing Rate but will be running into the teeth of this Sooners defense. Oklahoma ranks first in the country in Stuff Rate.

Oklahoma is terrific at keeping teams out of the end zone, ranking ninth in the country at preventing Finishing Drives. The Sooners create a ton of Havoc and do a good job getting after the quarterback. Edge rushers Ethan Downs and Rondell Bothroyd are going to put pressure on Bean every time he drops back.

When Bean is under pressure, this Oklahoma defense that's top-10 at taking the ball away will force him into mistakes. Cornerbacks Gentry Williams and Kendel Dolby both have multiple interceptions this year, as do the two safeties.

Kansas might have been able to keep things reasonably close in a high-scoring affair last year. But Oklahoma has taken a big step forward on both offense and defense this season, and it’ll be enough to pull away.

To recap:

1. Oklahoma is overvalued. Regression is coming.
2. Anthony’s injury will hinder Gabriel and the Sooners’ offense.
3. The Jayhawks' offense can keep up with anybody, even with its backup quarterback.
4. The Jayhawks' offense will be at its best following its bye week.
5. 10 points is far too many for a home ‘dog in the Big 12.

For what it’s worth, per our own Stuckey, Big 12 home teams have the highest ROI of any conference at 3.6%.

This should be an electric game with plenty of scoring. Much of that scoring will come from Rock Chalk. The more-prepared Jayhawks will go tit-for-tat with Gabriel and Co., resulting in a one-score loss or, dare I say it, upset victory.

Gabriel and the Oklahoma offense are firing on all cylinders. They're averaging 6.5 yards per play this season. They snap the ball twice and it’s a first down.

I expect this game to be won in the red zone. Oklahoma ranks 16th in the country in Finishing Drives. When the Sooners cross the 40, they tend to score. Well, Kansas is 124th at preventing scoring drives. The Jayhawks have the worst red zone defense in the country.

Literally, every time a team has entered the red zone against the Jayhawks they have scored. Teams are 27-for-27 in the red zone.

Oklahoma will have no problem moving the ball here, and it will be able to score every time it does. The Sooners' defense is also top-10 at preventing Finishing Drives, meaning Kansas and its backup quarterback will not be able to keep up.

Don’t try to use Stuckey to help your argument because Collin Wilson is on Oklahoma with me. If you want to make this a Tag Team Title Match, Collin and I will gladly be The Road Warriors and go into Lawrence and leave as the champs.

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