Houston vs Texas Tech Odds & Prediction: How to Bet In-State Rivalry
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Donovan Smith (Houston)
Houston vs Texas Tech Odds
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | +260 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | -350 |
A new rivalry begins as Houston travels to Lubbock to face in-state Big 12 foe Texas Tech.
The Cougars aren't off to a great start to the season. They've already played four games inside the state of Texas, going 2-2 against UTSA, Rice, TCU and Sam Houston.
Dana Holgorsen is trying to rebuild his offense after losing his two best players from last season, and it seems it's going to take longer than anticipated.
Texas Tech is having a poor start to its season, as well. The Red Raiders are sitting at 1-3, with their only win coming against Tarleton State. After a 20-13 loss in Morgantown, you could say this is one of the more desperate teams in college football.
This is a revenge game for Donovan Smith, who transferred to Houston from Texas Tech after starting only four games for the Red Raiders.
However, he really wasn't that great of a passer in Lubbock.
He recorded a PFF passing grade of just 65.1, while averaging 6.8 yards per attempt and posting only six big-time throws compared to 11 turnover-worthy plays.
This season, he really hasn't improved much, with his PFF passing grade sitting at 67.3 while averaging 6.7 yards per attempt.
However, he does already have seven big-time throws, with four of them coming against TCU.
Smith is a really good runner escaping the pocket, though. He's averaging 4.4 yards per carry and has six runs over 10+ yards on only 26 carries.
The Houston rushing attack has really struggled to get going this season. Holgorsen is using a three running back committee, but the Cougars are 87th in Rushing Success Rate, 95th in Offensive Line Yards and 116th in EPA/Rush.
The Cougars' defense was pretty bad in 2022, finishing 93rd in EPA/Play Allowed, 69th in Finishing Drives Allowed and 71st in Success Rate Allowed. The unit returned seven starters, but lost both of its starting safeties and its top linebacker.
The Cougars have continued to get torched on the ground and in the air, as they're outside the top 100 in both Rushing and Passing Success Rate Allowed.
The big story with the Texas Tech offense is the injury to its starting quarterback Tyler Shough. He fractured his fibula against West Virginia and is going to be out until late November.
Backup quarterback Behren Morton played most of the game against West Virginia and was really quite awful, going 13-for-37 for 158 yards to go along with a 36.0 PFF passing grade.
Morton is familiar with Zach Kittley's system, having started four games towards the end of last season. His numbers in those games were just as bad as what we saw against West Virginia.
In those four starts, he had a PFF passing grade of 52.4, had an adjusted completion percentage of 65.6% and committed seven turnover-worthy plays.
That's a big problem for the Texas Tech Air Raid system that's reliant on completing those efficient short passes. Not having a quarterback that's good at throwing passes under 10 yards (Morton had a 50.0 PFF passing grade and a 61.4% completion percentage on throws 0-9 yards in 2022) is going to throw everything off in this offense.
The Red Raiders have a decent defense this season. Their numbers are a bit deflated from playing two bad offenses in their last two games, but against Oregon and Wyoming, they held them to a combined 5.1 yards per play.
Some of the advanced metrics against the run, though, have been below average, as the Red Raiders rank 90th in Defensive Line Yards, 105th in Stuff Rate and 79th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
They also haven't been able to put much pressure on the quarterback, ranking 117th in Havoc and 51st in terms of a pass rushing grade. Giving Smith time to throw is never a good idea because with a clean pocket, he's averaging 8.1 yards per attempt with a 78.7% adjusted completion percentage.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Houston and Texas Tech match up statistically:
Houston Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 87 | 47 | |
| Line Yards | 95 | 69 | |
| Pass Success | 78 | 28 | |
| Havoc | 51 | 117 | |
| Finishing Drives | 125 | 68 | |
| Quality Drives | 67 | 72 |
Texas Tech Offense vs. Houston Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 36 | 109 | |
| Line Yards | 13 | 95 | |
| Pass Success | 96 | 106 | |
| Havoc | 41 | 75 | |
| Finishing Drives | 70 | 88 | |
| Quality Drives | 86 | 71 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 109 | 77 |
| PFF Coverage | 56 | 71 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 72 | 71 |
| Middle 8 | 50 | 58 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.4 (23) | 20.9 (2) |
| Rush Rate | 47.6% (122) | 46.6% (113) |
Houston vs Texas Tech
Betting Pick & Prediction
With this being a revenge spot for Smith and Texas Tech down to a below-average backup quarterback, I think this is the perfect spot to back Houston.
The Red Raiders' system with Kittley is very reliant on being successful in the short passing game to open up the rest of the playbook. That means the running game won't be as effective and they won't be getting those throws over the top — not that they would be able to connect with Morton at quarterback anyway.
Even though Houston has been terrible defensively against decent competition, it has the better quarterback in this matchup, so I like the value on it at +8.5 on the road in Lubbock.
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