Friday College Football Picks: How We’re Betting Utah State vs Fresno State & More (October 13)
Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network.
Friday. Night. Lights.
There's something special about football being played under the lights, getting us ready for the massive Saturday slate that will be here in just a few hours.
Tonight's college football slate features three games: Tulane vs. Memphis, Fresno State vs. Utah State and Stanford vs. Colorado.
Our college football writers broke down each game with an in-depth betting preview and came through with a pick for each based on their analysis.
Check out all three betting previews for Friday's college football slate below.
Friday NCAAF Betting Previews
The team logos in the table below represent each of the betting previews that our college football betting staff has for Friday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 8 p.m. | ||
| 10 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tulane vs. Memphis
A huge game in the AAC headlines Friday night's college football slate as Tulane travels to take on Memphis.
It's been an interesting season for Tulane, which has had to play two games without Michael Pratt under center after coming into the season ranked inside the top 25. The Green Wave still sit at 4-1 and are in the driver's seat to get to the AAC Championship game, but this is their toughest conference game this season.
Memphis got a late win over Boise State in its last outing to get to 4-1 on the season. The Tigers, much like Tulane, are in the driver's seat themselves in terms of the AAC, as they have one of the easiest schedules to finish the 2023 campaign.
If they can win this game at home, the Tigers will almost be a certainty for the AAC Championship game.
Ever since Pratt returned from injury, his performances really haven't been that impressive. Against Nicholls State and UAB, he went a combined 22-for-46 for 374 yards with four touchdowns and an interception.
Failing to throw for over 200 yards against those two secondaries is concerning, and what's also concerning is his PFF passing grade was below 70 in both of those contests.
Now he's going to face a much better secondary, and the pressure is going to be on him to throw because Tulane's rushing attack has been struggling — to say the least.
The Green Wave are 115th in Rushing Success Rate, 80th in EPA/Rush and 110th in Rushing Explosiveness. The offensive line is doing its job — ranking inside the top 35 in Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed — but Makhi Hughes — outside of his last game against UAB — has been pretty subpar in his freshman season.
The worry here for Tulane has to be its secondary. The front seven has done a good job stopping the run — allowing a very low 2.7 yards per carry and ranking inside the top 30 in both Rushing Success Rate and Defensive Line Yards — but the secondary is not putting up good numbers, and quite frankly, it hasn't faced many good quarterbacks.
Jaxson Dart is the best quarterback the unit has faced, and he put up 9.9 yards per attempt against the Green Wave.
For the season, the Green Wave are 78th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 50th in EPA/Pass Allowed and 60th in terms of a PFF coverage grade.
That's not exactly encouraging when you're about to face a quarterback as good as Seth Henigan.
Henigan is back for this third season as Memphis' starting quarterback, and he's been improving each year. He shined bright with a PFF passing grade of 80.6 last season and has built upon that with a 81.2 PFF passing grade through five games in 2023.
What makes Henigan so good is that he's not only great when he has a clean pocket, but he's one of the best quarterbacks in college football when blitzed.
Opposing defenses have blitzed Memphis 34.3% of the time and Henigan has a 90.2 PFF passing grade and is averaging 9.8 yards per attempt with an 81.0% adjusted completion percentage in those situations. He's also 27th in college football in EPA among quarterbacks who have at least 100 pass attempts.
Roc Taylor has really become a big-play threat over the past few games, putting up a combined 245 yards receiving on just 12 catches against Boise State and Missouri.
Roc Taylor’s second career touchdown tied it up for Memphis, 14-14 at the half.
— Oliver Hodgkinson (@ojhodgkinson) September 15, 2023
The Tigers' run game has struggled to get going — it's outside the top 80 in Rushing Success Rate, Offensive Line Yards and EPA/Rush.
That's okay, though, because Memphis' biggest advantage is going to come through the air.
Memphis' secondary has been outstanding this season. The Tigers are 10th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 12th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed and 28th in terms of a PFF coverage grade.
In this game last season, they held Pratt to just 158 yards and 5.4 yards per attempt, which was his lowest mark of the season.
Tulane vs Memphis
Betting Pick & Prediction
Should Tulane really be a road favorite here? I understand that Pratt is back under center, but his performances in his two games back have been far from elite.
The pressure is also going to be on him in this game, especially if Tulane's subpar rushing attack is not able to get going.
That's not a good combination given how good Memphis' secondary has been this season and how well the Tigers limited Pratt in this game last year on the road.
Henigan is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the Group of Five and has shown it for three years now. The Tigers' passing attack against Tulane's average-at-best secondary is going to be the biggest advantage Memphis will have in this game.
I have Memphis projected as a -1.1 favorite here at home, so I love the value on the Tigers at +4.5 (BetMGM), and I would play it down to +3.
Fresno State vs. Utah State
Fresno State was in the driver’s seat for a spot in the Mountain West Championship game and possibly even a New Year’s Six bowl berth before an always tricky visit to Laramie knocked the Bulldogs down to 5-1.
However, they have a favorable schedule down the stretch, and it starts with a bounce-back spot against Utah State.
Fresno State already has Power Five road wins against Purdue and Arizona State on its resume. The Bulldogs are the defending Mountain West champions and are looking to defend their title with a retooled roster.
Two seasons ago, it was the Utah State Aggies atop the Mountain West Conference. However, since their 2021 title run, they've gone just 9-10 and are 3-3 start to this season.
Can Fresno State get back on track? Or will Utah State — which has won two straight — keeps things rolling?
The game wasn’t the only thing the Bulldogs lost last week, as starting quarterback Mikey Keene went down midway through the fourth quarter with an ankle injury.
Logan Fife entered and immediately led Fresno State on a touchdown drive. He later threw an interception that sealed the deal for Wyoming, though.
Fife will get the start here, but this isn't uncharted territory for the Bulldogs. When Jake Haener went down last season, Fife made four starts.
However, he didn't look great and went 2-2 with two touchdowns and six interceptions. He got better over his last two starts, but there's a reason why the Bulldogs brought in Keene from the transfer portal.
The big question coming into the season was how the Bulldogs would not only replace Haener, but also Jalen Moreno-Cropper, Nikko Remigio and Zane Pope.
They’ve gotten the production they needed from Erik Brooks, Jalen Moss and Jaelen Gill all stepping up and averaging over 60 yards per game. They each also have at least four touchdowns.
But that was with Keene.
These receivers will need to be even better to help out Fife, especially with the running game struggling. Elijah Gilliam hasn't been able to replace Jordan Mims' production. Fresno State ranks just 121st in Rushing Success Rate and has yet to top 145 rushing yards in a game this season.
The defense also lost some key pieces — mainly star safety Evan Williams — but has remained dominant and ranks 22nd in the nation in Defensive Success Rate.
Over the past four games, Fresno State has allowed just 10.8 points per game and has held its opponents to an average of just 252.5 yards.
Fresno State — led by Devo Bridges up front and lockdown corner Carlton Johnson — ranks 29th at creating Havoc and 33rd in Coverage grade.
The Bulldogs were dealt a big blow with Cam Lockridge being out for the season, but between Johnson, Morice Norris Jr. and Alzillion Hamilton, they have depth in the secondary.
Quarterback has been a bit of a roller coaster for Utah State this season. Cooper Legas started the season as QB1, but his inconsistency as a passer limited the Aggies.
They made the switch to freshman McCae Hillstead in Week 3, but he suffered a concussion two weeks ago against UConn.
So, Legas will be under center again. Legas has thrown 10 touchdowns passes and four interceptions this season. He's completing 69% of his passes — which leads the Mountain West — but there's something missing from his game.
If they can get consistent quarterback play, the Aggies have two solid receivers in Jalen Royals and Terrell Vaughn. They're each averaging over 80 yards per game and have seven touchdowns apiece.
Utah State also has a solid stable of running backs. Davon Booth leads a room of him, Rahsul Faison and Robert Briggs Jr., and all three are averaging at least 40 yards per game. Booth averages over six yards per carry, but the team has just eight rushing touchdowns.
Utah State's issue is its defense. This unit is atrocious.
Despite playing the offenses of Iowa, Idaho State, Air Force, James Madison, UConn and Colorado State, Utah State ranks 124th in Success Rate on defense. The Aggies have allowed 406.8 yards and 32.2 points per game.
They're outside the top 100 against the run and the pass and have been burned by both. Idaho State and James Madison threw for over 320 yards and Air Force and UConn each ran for more than 200 yards against the Aggies.
Fresno State vs Utah State
Betting Pick & Prediction
For as much as Fife has struggled under center, the Aggies' defense is a good matchup that can allow him to have success. Utah State gets no pressure on the quarterback and should give Fife time to get the ball to his receivers.
Utah State has looked improved on offense this season and has a decent cast of weapons, but there are two big areas of this game in which the Bulldogs have a massive advantage.
First, Fresno State's defense is second in the Mountain West in tackles for loss and 11th in the country with 12 turnovers forced.
Additionally, Utah State’s offensive line is terrible. It's 107th in pass blocking and 124th in run blocking. The Bulldogs' defenders will be licking their chops.
The other area in which Fresno State has a big advantage in is Finishing Drives. Even if Utah State is able to get the ball to it weapons, it performs better in open space. When the field shrinks, the Aggies have shriveled. Utah State ranks just 94th at Finishing Drives on offense when they cross the 40-yard line.
Fresno State has been terrific defensively, especially when the field shrinks. The Bulldogs rank 32nd in preventing Finishing Drives on defense.
Even without Keene, I like the Bulldogs to bounce back after a tough loss against Wyoming. They're extremely well coached and can still reach the Mountain West Conference Championship game.
Back Fresno State as a small favorite Friday night.
Stanford vs. Colorado
Frustration is the mindset of Colorado head coach Deion Sanders. After a narrow escape against Arizona State, Sanders relayed his message about a Buffaloes squad that's consistently marred by inefficiencies, penalties and a kicking game that's not up to standard.
Colorado has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation: fourth in strength of schedule and top-30 in strength of record. If the Buffaloes have aspirations of making a bowl game, Friday night is a must-win against a Stanford team without a conference victory.
Head coach Troy Taylor had the Cardinal ready for a season opener against Hawaii. The new offensive scheme was full of pre-snap motion, turning into misdirection and moving offensive lineman after the snap.
Opponents took notice of the film, though, as Stanford has now lost four straight, including a loss to Taylor's old team in Sacramento State.
Now the Trees leave The Farm for the first time since Week 2, a drubbing provided by USC. The Cardinal will look to enter Boulder at full strength under center, desperately needing a victory in the inaugural season for Taylor.
Stanford entered the season with a season win total that fell from 3 to 2.5 before opening kick.
Colorado may represent the best chance to get a second win for Stanford, with Washington, UCLA, Notre Dame and a host of others remaining on the schedule.
Taylor has brought his Sacramento State offense to Palo Alto, running a heavy amount of two tight end sets.
More than 58% of snaps are a rushing attempt, as Taylor prefers an even distribution of inside zone, power- and man-run concepts in a heavy set.
Quarterback Ashton Daniels is set to start after being knocked out of the Oregon game. The second-year quarterback has struggled in crowded pockets, with a 46% adjusted completion percentage and five turnover-worthy plays.
While the offense has struggled to get inside the top 100 in any analytical category, the defense has been at the bottom of FBS in multiple statistics.
Stanford is the worst-ranked defense nationally in allowing points in opponent scoring opportunities. In 23 opponent drives beyond the 40-yard line, Stanford is allowing an average of 5.3 points per attempt.
The nickel formation strives to stop explosives, often moving from a three-man to a two-man front depending on the down and distance. Stanford has yet to force a fumble and also has recorded the fewest tackles for a loss in FBS.
If there's an area that's a positive, the Cardinal rank top-25 in limiting explosives in passing downs thanks to their leading tackler in cornerback Collin Wright.
There may be good news on the horizon for Colorado, as Travis Hunter is practicing with the team during Week 7 preparation. Hunter was third in targets offensively before suffering an injury against Colorado State, but his real impact came on the defensive side of the ball.
Lining up at cornerback, Hunter allowed just four catches on 12 targets while recording four pass breakups.
There have been improvements on defense as the season has progressed, as the Buffaloes rank in the top half of FBS teams in Line Yards and tackling.
Defensive coordinator Charles Kelly pivots between the 3-3-5 and 4-2-5 with the strongest coverage efficiency in quarters.
The offense has been in good hands with Shedeur Sanders, who has thrown 16 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Not only has Sanders contributed more than 2,000 passing yards, but the Jackson State transfer also has over 200 rushing yards with three touchdowns.
Wideout Xavier Weaver and slot Jimmy Horn Jr. lead the team in targets, complementing an offense that ranks 13th in Passing Downs Success Rate.
On 4th & goal Xavier Weaver takes it in for @CUBuffsFootball 🦬
This game is tied 💪 pic.twitter.com/bGwGZ7b0IF
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 7, 2023
Stanford vs Colorado
Betting Pick & Prediction
The numbers haven't been kind for Stanford or Colorado, two teams with a strength of schedule in the top 20 nationally.
While the defensive numbers are a product of playing high-octane offenses, it's the offensive struggle to generate opportunities and score points that will be the primary driver on Friday.
Stanford is 126th in Offensive Quality Drives, a statistic that measures offensive possessions that end in a score, last at least 10 plays, are longer than three minutes or cover 50 yards.
Colorado has a similar struggle, ranking 89th in Quality Drives and 102nd in Offensive Finishing Drives.
These ranks often correlate with Offensive Momentum Killer, another statistic with a focus on 10-plus yard penalties, sacks, fumbles, missed field goals and failed fourth-down conversions.
Both Stanford and Colorado rank bottom-20 of all FBS teams in Offensive Momentum Killer, which will make Friday night a consistent offensive struggle.
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