For the sixth straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
After two total flops in Week 2, we bounced back nicely with a clean sweep with James Madison and Florida both getting to the window in Week 3. Hopefully we can carry that momentum into this Saturday.
- 2018-22: 60-98, +8.3 units
- 2023: 3-3, +3.25 units
- Overall: 63-99, +11.55 units
For this week, Collin and I are rolling with a pair of short prime-time pups. If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both dogs pays out at just under 5-1 odds.
Wilson: Georgia Tech +160
| GA Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -112 | 60 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -108 | 60 -110o / -110u | -192 |
Don't be fooled by the respective records of these two teams coming into this ACC showdown. Wake Forest sits at 3-0 and Georgia Tech at 1-2.
The strength of schedule disparity is massive in this matchup with the Yellow Jackets checking in at 15th nationally after facing Louisville and Ole Miss in nonconference play, while the Demon Deacons sit at 125th after facing Vanderbilt, Elon and Old Dominion.
Wake did cover against Vanderbilt but benefited from three Vanderbilt turnovers, including a muffed punt that Wake returned for a touchdown. And last week against Old Dominion, Wake had to overcome a late third-quarter 24-7 deficit.
Meanwhile, Georgia Tech could have easily upset Louisville and played Ole Miss a lot closer than the final score indicates due to some special teams blunders and four late Ole Miss scores.
Running back Jamal Haynes has been electric for the Yellow Jackets, averaging 4.9 yards after contact while creating 11 missed tackles. He could have a big day against a Wake Forest defense that has struggled to stop the run with mediocre ranks in Defensive Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate — despite a soft schedule.
The secondary also has holes that quarterback Haynes King can exploit with a passing attack that new offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner has operating at a super-high level.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia Tech's defense does have issues. However, they have primarily been bitten by explosive plays on passing plays, which have a ton of variance. The Success Rate numbers on those downs look fine and the secondary actually profiles as an overall strength, so I expect some better luck on that end.
Plus, the Demon Deacons have struggled to piece together Quality Drives and convert opportunities to points.
Both offenses should find some edges here, but Tech has the more talented roster and should come in with a bit more desperation after a pair of early-season defeats.
This one should be competitive and may come down to the wire, so I'll happily side with the medium-sized road dog.
Stuckey: UTEP +125
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -134 |
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +112 |
The logic for this selection is pretty simple.
First off, I make Miner Nation a small favorite, so I certainly see value in the number, which always reigns supreme in this gig. Additionally, this sets up as a prime buy-low, sell-high spot. Fresh off a crazy back-and-forth win over an SEC opponent, UNLV must travel to El Paso to take on a 1-2 UTEP club before starting conference play.
The Rebels could certainly come out a bit flat here. Meanwhile, I expect the home Miners to come out fully focused in their own building after back-to-back road losses against Power 5 opponents.
From a matchup perspective, UTEP wants to lean on its massive offensive line on the ground to set up occasional deep shots downfield in the passing game with quarterback Gavin Hardison.
It's certainly not the most efficient offense in the country, but it has a decent matchup here against a vulnerable UNLV defense that can be pushed around up front and allow big plays on the back end. On the season, the Rebels rank outside the top 100 nationally in both Stuff Rate and passing explosiveness.
I think the Miners pick up the home win here in a game they should be favored in against a UNLV team that may show up in El Paso with a lack of focus in a tough situational spot.
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