With Week 5 looming over our shoulders, another beautiful Saturday slate gives us another full slate of college football player props.
Our staff came through with four wagers, including picks for Woody Marks and Gio Lopez.
Here are our five favorite player prop picks for Saturday, Sept. 28.
College Football Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of our college football staff's top player prop picks from Saturday's slate of NCAAF games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Kalel Mullings & Justice Ellison ATD Parlay (+259)
By Alex Hinton
Kalel Mullings is coming off a career-high 159 yards on 17 carries against USC.
He scored on a 53-yard touchdown run in the first half and then had a 63-yard run on Michigan’s final drive. That set up the game-winning score, which Mullings took in from a yard out for his second of the game.
Mullings has 312 rushing yards and four touchdowns over his last two games.
This week, he will face a Minnesota defense that allowed Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson to run for 206 yards and three touchdowns last week. The Gophers also allowed 129 rushing yards to North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton in the opener.
With Michigan’s nonexistent passing game this season, Mullings or Donovan Edwards will likely be one of Michigan’s touchdown scorers this week.
Meanwhile, Justice Ellison shares carries for the high-scoring Indiana Hoosiers. He is one of three Indiana running backs with four rushing touchdowns in the team’s first four games. Ellison has scored in each of Indiana’s last three games.
This week, Indiana faces a more challenging test, Maryland, in its second Big Ten thus far. However, it is still a 6.5-point favorite with a team total of 30.5 points this week.
Maryland has allowed two rushing touchdowns through its first four games and Indiana has the best offense it has faced thus far. Against tougher competition moving forward, we will likely see Indiana shorten its running back rotation at some point, which is why I prefer Ellison to Ty’Son Lawton or Elijah Green.
Ellison is the team’s leading rusher with 290 rushing yards on 7.6 yards per carry. Three of his touchdowns are from two yards out or less, which means he should get some goalline opportunities as well.
Individually, Mullings is -128 and Ellison is +102 on FanDuel to score touchdowns, which is solid value if you prefer a straight bet on one of them.
However, with eight combined touchdowns the last three weeks and solid matchups to score again, I love getting nearly +260 odds for them to score as a combo.
Pick: Kalel Mullings & Justice Ellison Anytime Touchdown Scorer Parlay (+259)
Wisconsin vs. USC Player Props
Woody Marks Over 76.5 Rush Yards (-114)
USC got their first taste of Big Ten football last week and, unfortunately, learned that this conference is about punching people in the mouth.
Michigan ran the ball 46 times on the Trojans and eventually broke enough big runs to pull out the win. Don’t be surprised if USC learns from that and starts to play a little more of a Big Ten style of play as the conference season continues.
Lincoln Riley is always going to have a pass-heavy offense, but when USC has run the ball this season, the Trojans have been very effective. They're averaging 5.1 yards per carry, led by Woody Marks, averaging 6.5 yards per pop.
Marks has gone over 100 yards in each of the last two games and is averaging 7.8 yards per carry in those contests. USC has had success on the ground this season, ranking ninth in rushing success and 17th in Line Yards.
This is a good matchup for Marks against a struggling Wisconsin defense. Gone are the days of a dominant front in Madison. The Badgers rank 103rd nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and are 89th in Defensive Line Yards. They have allowed 4.5 yards per carry on the ground this season.
With a season ending injury to their quarterback, Wisconsin now has major questions on offense as well.
USC is a -15.5 point favorite here at home and will likely be in a leading game script for the majority of the game. I expect them to get back on track by leaning on the run game here, and that means a big game for Marks.
Pick: Woody Marks Over 76.5 Rush Yards (-114) | Play to 84.5 (-110)
South Alabama vs. LSU Player Props
Gio Lopez Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+154)
The South Alabama offense is humming right now, averaging 57.6 points and 558.6 yards per game with Gio Lopez starting at quarterback.
The big fear against an SEC opponent is that you lose the battle up front badly, but LSU is down one of its best pass rushers. Harold Perkins Jr. tore his ACL on Saturday against UCLA. He was the kind of disruptor off the edge that South Alabama would have struggled with.
With Perkins shelved, USA can chip Bradyn Swinson with a tight end and/or a running back on every dropback. That will be useful because Swinson has five sacks in his past two games.
With time to operate, Lopez should find some success throwing into an average LSU secondary. Pro Football Focus ranks the Bayou Bengals 104th in Coverage.
The Tigers particularly struggle defending the middle of the field. According to CoachesByTheNumbers, LSU ranks among the bottom 30 FBS teams in defending passes five yards or deeper in the middle of the field.
South Alabama, conversely, excels at throwing over the middle, ranking top 30 in that same area of the field. Lopez has a chance to carve up this LSU pass defense if his line can give him time to work.
There are also the motivation and lookahead factors for LSU.
Brian Kelly and his staff want to save some wrinkles for Ole Miss in two weeks and they should be able to cruise to victory against a really weak South Alabama defense. If we get into a game script in which LSU is leading by three and four touchdowns, I don’t foresee them putting exotic blitz and coverage calls on tape.
Against a vanilla defensive playbook, I like Lopez to throw at least one garbage time touchdown in the second half. And at plus-money, this is the best value on the board in the late-night stretch of games on Saturday night.
Pick: Gio Lopez Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+154) | Play to +140
Washington State vs. Boise State Player Props
John Mateer Over 66 Rush Yards (-110)
By Cody Goggin
John Mateer is the Washington State offense.
He has 1041 yards and 11 touchdowns already through the air, but another 49 carries for 452 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.
Mateer is averaging 7.5 yards per rush this season and is averaging over 18 carries per game against FBS opponents this season.
He ran for 197 yards and 111 yards against Texas Tech and San Jose State, respectively. He added another 62 yards against Washington in week three as well.
Mateer is aided by this Washington State offensive line, which ranks 13th in PFF's Pass Blocking grades, giving him ample time to scramble if he needs to. According to PFF, Mateer has 11 scrambles this season when kept clean compared to eight when under pressure.
This means that Mateer’s rushing isn’t because he is being flushed from the pocket often, but rather that he is able to evaluate when to take off, making his rushing more efficient.
He also has 30 designed rushes on the season and has only been sacked five times in four games, meaning he doesn't lose a ton of yardage on sacks.
Boise State’s rush defense has not been good this season. The Broncos rank 119th in Rush Success Rate allowed, 118th in Rush PPA allowed, and 88th in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
A lot of this production has come against opposing quarterbacks as well, as Portland State’s Dante Chachere ran for 81 yards on 10 carries against this defense and Georgia Southern’s JC French went for 86 yards on 12 carries, both as their teams’ leading rushers.
Washington State is a seven-point underdog, so they will need Mateer to make plays to stay in this game. I think this will involve him using his legs often, and he should clear 66 rushing yards with ease.
Pick: John Mateer Over 66 Rush Yards (-110) | Play to -125
