With Week 4 looming over our shoulders, another beautiful Saturday slate gives us another full slate of college football player props.
Our staff came through with five picks for Texas' Arch Manning, Utah's Cam Rising, Arizona State's Sam Leavitt, Louisville's Ja'Corey Brooks and USF's Sean Atkins.
Here are our five favorite prop picks for Saturday, Sept. 21.
CFB Prop Picks For Week 4
In the table below, you'll find each of our college football staff's top player prop picks from Saturday's Week 4 slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Arizona State vs. Texas Tech Player Props
Sam Leavitt Over 39.5 Rush Yards (-115)
By Brett Pund
If you’ve watched any Arizona State games this season, you know how important it is for coach Kenny Dillingham’s team to establish the run.
Fortunately for the Sun Devils, this is how you want to attack Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders’ defense has been gashed on the ground, ranking outside the top 60 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
To make matters worse, the Tech defense also ranks among the bottom 10 Power 4 programs in rush Explosiveness allowed and 134th in Pro Football Focus's Tackling grades.
That doesn't bode well against an Arizona State offense that ranks in the top 25 in the nation in Rush Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards.
However, I’m electing to go with Sam Leavitt’s rushing prop rather than Cam Skattebo.
Texas State's main focus last week was to contain Skattebo. The Bobcats were fairly successful, but their efforts allowed Leavitt to scamper free for 73 yards (if you remove the lost yards for sacks).
Meanwhile, we’ve already seen a mobile quarterback give the Red Raiders issues. Against Washington State, John Mateer finished with 197 rushing yards.
For what it's worth, Leavitt has topped 40 rushing yards in all three games this season.
Pick: Sam Leavitt Over 39.5 Rush Yards (-115) | Play to 42.5 (-110)
Georgia Tech vs. Louisville Player Props
Ja'Corey Brooks Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Ja’Corey Brooks is a former five-star recruit and the No. 2 wide receiver prospect in the 2021 class. He never quite found his footing at Alabama, finishing with 896 yards and 10 touchdowns in three years with the Tide.
He transferred to Louisville this offseason and immediately became Tyler Shough’s favorite target. Brooks has 13 catches for 172 yards and a touchdown in two games with the Cardinals. He has at least six catches and 80 yards in each game this season, averaging 13.2 yards per reception.
Shough is a veteran quarterback whose biggest issue has always been staying healthy. In his first year in Jeff Brohm's quarterback-friendly system, he has six touchdowns, no interceptions, and five big-time throws.
Shough and Brooks have a great matchup against this Georgia Tech defense, primarily their secondary. The Yellow Jackets rank 109th nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed.
Even against a weak schedule of Florida State, Georgia State, Syracuse, and VMI, the Georgia Tech defense has not been efficient against the pass. The best offense in that bunch is Syracuse, which threw 381 yards and four touchdowns against the Jackets.
The Jackets rank 101st nationally in Pro Football Focus's Coverage grades, and Louisville should shred their secondary. The Cardinals are coming off a bye week, so Brohm had plenty of time to scheme up big plays for Brooks.
Pick: Ja'Corey Brooks Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-125) | Play to 64.5 (-110)
Utah vs. Oklahoma State Player Props
Cam Rising Over 225 Passing Yards (-120)
By Cody Goggin
Cam Rising is working his way back from a hand injury this week, but all indications are that he will be a go.
In my opinion, Rising is among the most entertaining college football quarterbacks to watch, and it’s great to see him back on the field after missing all of 2023.
In Rising’s only full game this season, he completed 10 of his 15 passes for 254 yards and five touchdowns against Southern Utah. Rising was injured in the second quarter against Baylor but still amassed 92 yards on just eight completions.
Rising only eclipsed 225 passing yards six times in his last full season, 2022. But I think the Utes will need him to throw the ball on Saturday.
Oklahoma State ranks 56th nationally in Success Rate allowed, including 55th against the pass and 56th against the run. The Pokes' main issue has been allowing explosive plays, where they rank 130th.
A few weeks ago, Oklahoma State allowed Taylen Green to throw for 388 yards. I’m not saying that Rising will replicate that performance, but Green did show that it is possible to throw on this Cowboys team.
Rising is a good passer, and I think he will need to throw a ton in this game.
Pick: Cam Rising Over 225 Passing Yards (-120) | Play to 235 (-110)
Miami vs. USF Player Props
Sean Atkins Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
By Greg Liodice
I’ve always liked Sean Atkins’ game, but he and quarterback Byrum Brown have a massive test in front of them.
Brown folds when stepping up in competition. He posted an 86.7 Pro Football Focus passing grade against Southern Miss but just a 49.2 mark against Alabama.
Brown had plenty of open targets in the Alabama game but overthrew almost every receiver.
Tonight, he faces the Miami Hurricanes, who ranks second nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed and first in Passing PPA allowed.
That poses a problem for the freak athlete in Brown and his favorite target in Atkins. The Bulls don't have many other options, and Brown will tuck it and run if No. 38 doesn't get open.
Speaking of running, USF ranks 35th in rush rate. The Bulls are better on the ground than through the air.
With a juggernaut in front of them, I can’t see Atkins reaching 50 yards.
Pick: Sean Atkins Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115) | Play to 52.5 (-125)
ULM vs. Texas Player Props
Arch Manning Under 292.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Last week, Arch Manning led Texas on eight drives and filled in for Quinn Ewers mid-drive on a ninth. He accounted for five touchdowns and 276 total yards (223 pass, 53 rush).
Then he got the hook, heading to the bench with 13 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.
A similar script should play out against the Warhawks, who enter as 45-point underdogs.
Whether you’re thinking about it in terms of drives, minutes or quarters, it’s common knowledge that Manning will only play a portion of this game. With Ewers dinged up and SEC play on the horizon, now is the time to play things safe from an injury perspective. That’s why I would be shocked to see Manning taking snaps in the second half of this game.
Additionally, unlike his famous uncles, Arch is a dual-threat. His 67-yard rushing touchdown last week is precisely the kind of play that can stifle his total passing output.
It’s also worth noting that Monroe plays quarters coverage on nearly 40% of their defensive snaps. As a result, the Warhawks don’t give up big passing plays.
If you went strictly by their rush defense numbers, you’d assume they were stout up front, but that’s been a product of its opponents. Jackson State and UAB abandoned the run while playing catch-up.
Manning will move the chains with accurate underneath throws, and Jerrick Gibson will expose the Warhawk front. Because of his explosiveness, Gibson was the third-rated running back in the 2024 class. I foresee a long touchdown run or two, hastening Manning’s move to the bench at halftime.
I like this down into the 287.5 range and would play it down to 280 if you get solid plus money on it.
Pick: Arch Manning Under 292.5 Passing Yards (-114) | Play to 280 (+100)
