William & Mary vs Virginia Odds, Picks | Why to Back the ‘Dog

The William & Mary Tribe head to Charlottesville to take on the Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday.

William & Mary is coming off its first loss of the season and hoping to get back on track against an ACC team desperate for a win.

Virginia is really going through it. After a loss to Boston College last week, the Cavaliers are 0-5 and have lost eight straight dating back to last season.

This season, William & Mary has run the ball well and played elite defense.

As one of the best teams in the FCS, the Tribe have one of the more potent rushing attacks. Both Malachi Imoh and Bronson Yoder rank in the top 10 in the Colonial Athletic Association, although Yoder recently suffered an injury.

Luckily for the Tribe, Imoh has been extremely explosive while averaging nearly seven yards per carry.

Because of that, the pass hasn't been prevalent in this offense. In fact, Darius Wilson is third-to-last in the CAA in passing yards.

However, that's not all his fault. The receivers haven’t helped him out as much, and Imoh is the second-leading receiver on the team behind JT Mayo, who gets a ton of volume compared to the rest of his receiver room.

This defense has been really efficient all season and leads the FCS in points allowed. Teams are scoring just under 11 points per game against the Tribe. Granted, the competition hasn’t been all that tough.

Nate Lynn has truly been a marvel to watch this season. The senior defensive lineman has seven sacks, nine tackles for loss and two forced fumbles. Behind him is junior outside linebacker John Pius, who has four sacks and eight TFLs.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

It just keeps going from bad to worse for the Cavaliers. Not only is Virginia winless, but the injuries — especially in the secondary — are mounting.

However, senior quarterback Tony Muskett returned last week. Against Boston College, Muskett threw for 247 yards, completed 64.7% of his passes and threw three touchdowns. He also threw an interception.

In Muskett’s absence, freshman Anthony Colandrea had a solid showing, completing 62% of his passes despite throwing six picks to five touchdowns.

Regardless, this team doesn’t thrive in the air. Both Malik Washington and Malachi Fields have been really effective targets and are capable of the occasional explosive play. However, the Cavaliers rank 96th in passing down Success Rate.

The rushing attack has certainly suffered. Virginia ranks 130th in Success Rate and 126th in PPA while lacking significant explosiveness.

Mike Hollins will most likely be out with an ankle injury, but we may see the season debut of Xavier Brown, who has been a full participant in practice. Outside of Brown, no one has averaged more than 3.5 yards per carry.

Virginia has done an OK job of stopping the pass but has been terrible at stopping the run. The Cavaliers are 118th in Rushing Success Rate, 122nd in standard downs and 105th in Havoc Allowed.

Despite what the records show, William & Mary faces its biggest challenge yet. The Tribe have been dominant defensively, but watching them face an FBS team in a Power 5 conference that has struggled all year will certainly be interesting.

The Cavaliers have been getting closer to a win, and Muskett’s return could help them end the season on a high note.

The key to this game will be the rushing attacks. William & Mary has a powerful run game behind Imoh, while Virginia struggles mightily against the run. On the other side, the Hoos have had a hard time on the ground, while the Tribe have allowed an astounding 75 rushing yards per game.

Action Network's projections have Virginia favored by nine points. However, I'm taking a chance here and going against the Cavaliers.

I think this will be a close bout. I can see the Tribe frustrating Virginia with their hard-nosed defense and strong run game.

Pick: William & Mary +9