Florida State vs Virginia Tech Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-24 -110 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | -2500 |
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+24 -110 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | +1100 |
Florida State looks to remain undefeated when it hosts Virginia Tech in an ACC clash.
Virginia Tech ended its losing streak last weekend, beating Pittsburgh, 38-21, behind five total touchdowns from Kyron Drones, who is starting to look a lot like Hendon Hooker.
The Hokies are huge underdogs here and most likely will not stand a chance, but the win against Pittsburgh may give them the confidence to hang in this game.
I think it's fair to say that two weeks ago Florida State escaped Clemson in a game they had no business winning. For now, it keeps the Seminoles' hopes for the College Football Playoff alive, as they are now in the driver's seat to get to the ACC title game.
They have one big test left on the schedule against Miami in the month of November, so they need to take care of business to make that rivalry game as high stakes as possible.
Florida State Seminoles
FSU's Jordan Travis is an incredible quarterback and one of the best in college football. Last season, he had one of the best PFF passing grades in the country at 90.1 while also averaging 9.1 yards per attempt, with 27 big-time throws compared to eight turnover-worthy plays.
Although it may seem like he's playing great to start this season, his PFF passing grades haven't been up to par with his standard from last year.
An adjusted completion percentage that low tells me that he is pretty reliant now on big plays in the passing game, so it should come as no surprise that 53.7% of his passing attempts have been over 10 yards in the air.
Additionally, he's been putting the ball up for grabs a little more often than he did last year with four turnover-worthy plays already this season.
Seminoles running back Trey Benson has really struggled to get going this season. Last year, he averaged 6.4 yards per carry and forced a whopping 79 missed tackles.
He had a strong performance against Southern Miss, but against Clemson, Boston College and LSU, he averaged under four yards per carry and forced only six missed tackles.
Overall for the season, Florida State is outside the top 100 in both rushing success rate and offensive line yards after a 22-yard rushing performance against Clemson.
The Florida State defense has been pretty shaky to begin the season, especially against the run. The Seminoles have allowed 3.8 yards per carry but sit 117th in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed and 46th in EPA/Rush Allowed. Both Boston College and Clemson ran for over 140 yards on the ground against them.
Virginia Tech Hokies
The quarterback situation for Virginia Tech has been interesting, to say the least. Grant Wells started the year but suffered an ankle injury and has missed the last three games.
He's questionable to play in this game but hasn't practiced much this week, so it looks like it will be another week of Drones at quarterback.
QB Grant Wells did a little bit more today, but he's still laboring out there when he moves.
Added some agility work during ball security drills to his repertoire. Also threw in red zone 1-on-1s, but Drones got all the first-team reps. Watson and Wittke split w/twos. #Hokies
— Andy Bitter (@AndyBitterVT) October 4, 2023
Drones has now made three starts and he really looked comfortable against Pittsburgh last weekend, accumulating five total touchdowns. He is only averaging 6.5 yards per attempt with a 70.2 PFF passing grade, but on the ground, he's averaging 5.0 yards per carry and already has 10 runs of 10+ yards in only 43 carries.
That could be key because on two occasions already this season, Florida State has allowed over 60 yards rushing to a quarterback.
The Hokies clearly having issues trying to stop the run. They allowed both Rutgers and Marshall to run for over 200 yards against them, but against Pittsburgh last weekend they held the Panthers to just 38 yards and 1.6 yards per attempt. With the Florida State rushing attack really not being that effective, Virginia Tech could slow it down.
The strength of the Hokies' defense is in their secondary. Virginia Tech is holding opponents to just 6.4 yards per attempt and ranks 32nd in EPA/Pass, but most importantly when facing a quarterback of Travis' caliber, it's 10th in explosive passing allowed.
The Hokies haven't faced an above-average quarterback yet, which is the worry. But at least they've been putting up the numbers they should be against subpar quarterbacks.
Florida State vs Virginia Tech
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia Tech and Florida State match up statistically:
Virginia Tech Offense vs. Florida State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 109 | 46 | |
| Line Yards | 119 | 23 | |
| Pass Success | 86 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 85 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 69 | 56 | |
| Quality Drives | 107 | 62 | |
Florida State Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 112 | 70 | |
| Line Yards | 102 | 81 | |
| Pass Success | 40 | 44 |  |
| Havoc | 11 | 82 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 95 | |
| Quality Drives | 31 | 40 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 102 | 79 |
| PFF Coverage | 112 | 34 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 46 | 15 |
| Middle 8 | 34 | 1 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.5 (61) | 28.7 (95) |
| Rush Rate | 55.3% (66) | 50.0% (80) |
Florida State vs Virginia Tech
Betting Prediction, Pick
Florida State is going to win this game, but I think the Seminoles are a tad overvalued here in the market.
Its inability to run the ball effectively and stop the run gives me a lot of pause, especially going up against a run-heavy offense with a dual-threat quarterback that has already run for 247 yards in his three starts.
Drones is going to be the key in this game. If he looks anything like the quarterback we saw last week against Pittsburgh, the Hokies are going to be very live in this game.
On the flip side, Travis hasn't quite been the elite version that we saw last season. He's basically relying on big plays in the passing game, which may not work against a secondary that's top-10 in explosive passing allowed.
I think there's some value on the Hokies here on the road to cover at +24.
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