Michigan State vs Rutgers Odds & Prediction: Can Spartans Keep It Close?
Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Nathan Carter (Michigan State)
Michigan State vs Rutgers Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
The Big Ten brings us a matchup in Piscataway, New Jersey as Greg Schiano’s Rutgers Scarlet Knights welcome in the Michigan State Spartans from East Lansing.
The Scarlet Knights are having a decent season, currently sitting in fifth in the Big Ten East with a conference record of 1-2 and an overall record of 4-2. Those two losses came to the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines and the Wisconsin Badgers, who currently sit atop the Big Ten West.
Michigan State sits at 0-2 in conference and 2-3 overall this season. The Spartans will look to get their first conference win after firing former coach Mel Tucker.
Can this Michigan State team start to bounce back after the dismissal of its coach? Let’s dive into the matchup and provide a betting pick for Michigan State vs. Rutgers.
Michigan State’s interim head coach Harlon Barnett has his work cut out for him after Tucker’s departure. The Spartans are on track to miss a bowl game this year after failing to qualify in 2022.
The Spartans have faced two very solid teams in the Big Ten so far — a good Maryland squad and an always stout Iowa team. This should be the most competitive Big Ten test the Spartans have seen thus far, though.
The Spartans' offense really runs through running back Nathan Carter, who's averaging 5.1 yards per carry on the ground. He's the key to keeping this Spartans offense moving the chains, as well as alleviating pressure off of quarterback Noah Kim.
Kim has been struggling this year with a 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio, so he'll be looking for Carter to help take some defensive pressure off of him.
Michigan State has a -6 turnover margin this season and needs to clean it up in order to pull this one out.
Carter will need to churn out some first downs early to give Kim some open throws to help build some confidence and help improve this team’s Success Rate, which currently ranks 82nd.
Bennett’s defensive mind should help Michigan State continue to improve on what's already a solid unit. The Spartans rank 49th overall defensively.
The most impressive part of this unit is the run defense, which ranks 33rd in the country. The pass defense needs some improvement — ranking 79th — but this Spartans defense is one of the best in the country at preventing the big play.
I think this will play a big role in how close this game will be in the fourth quarter, as the Spartans rank fifth in defensive Explosiveness rating.
Schiano and his Scarlet Knights enter this one with as many wins as they had in all of 2022, so it appears the coach has started to move this program in the right direction. Rutgers will need to beat struggling teams like Michigan State in order to take the next step towards the top of the Big Ten.
Dual-threat quarterback Gavin Wimsatt leads this Rutgers offense, as he tops the team in passing yards and is second in rushing yards behind teammate Kyle Monangai. This Rutgers offense hasn't had a great deal of success moving the football down the field, ranking 81st overall offensively.
The thing that's keeping Rutgers in games is its ability to dominate field position by limiting offensive turnovers (four on the year). The Scarlet Knights rank 41st in starting field position, and they put opposing offenses in tough starting spots, as they rank 20th in the country in defensive starting positions.
They'll need to continue to maintain possession in this one and limit turnovers, and Wimsatt will need to make some big throws against this porous Spartans pass defense.
While the Rutgers offense has some problems, its defense could be in store for a tough day if it can't figure out how to stop the run. This has been an issue that's plagued the Scarlet Knights all season. They sit at 123rd defending the run against a Michigan State team that finds success on the ground.
The key to this defense — just like the offense — is forcing turnovers. This defense has been the best in the country at making the big play when it needs it (first overall in Explosiveness). This has helped Rutgers gain a +4 turnover margin on the year — in cohorts with an offense that protects the ball.
The Scarlet Knights need to continue to force turnovers against the struggling Kim to give their offense some short fields.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan State and Rutgers match up statistically:
Michigan State Offense vs. Rutgers Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 68 | 123 | |
| Line Yards | 104 | 107 | |
| Pass Success | 76 | 31 | |
| Havoc | 94 | 65 | |
| Finishing Drives | 114 | 26 | |
| Quality Drives | 113 | 10 |
Rutgers Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 33 | |
| Line Yards | 79 | 26 | |
| Pass Success | 99 | 71 | |
| Havoc | 6 | 49 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 34 | |
| Quality Drives | 60 | 54 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 78 | 1 |
| PFF Coverage | 106 | 24 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 35 | 53 |
| Middle 8 | 56 | 68 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.8 (49) | 30.2 (121) |
| Rush Rate | 47.0% (105) | 60.9% (14) |
Michigan State vs Rutgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these teams should find success defensively against shaky offenses.
Michigan State holds some slight edges in Success Rates on both sides of the ball, so I think it can keep this one very close and potentially win outright in a low-scoring affair.
I think Carter finds some success on the ground, as Michigan State looks to chew clock and maintain possession in a tight one in Piscataway.
Give me the Spartans (+5) on the road.
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