LSU vs Missouri Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-5.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+5.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
Missouri looks to keep its undefeated season alive when it hosts LSU in Columbia on Saturday.
LSU suffered its second loss of the season against Ole Miss last week, effectively ending the Tigers' College Football Playoff hopes. They're still alive to win the SEC West, but there has to be a bit of a letdown after entering the season with so much promise.
While the LSU offense is clicking on all cylinders, the defense has been a big problem.
Missouri is undefeated after beating Vanderbilt on the road last Saturday. The Tigers have already pulled one upset this season by beating Kansas State at home on a game-winning field goal.
Brady Cook and Luther Burden III have turned into one of the best quarterback/receiver combinations in the nation and are always live for an upset, especially at home.
Find a betting pick, preview and prediction for LSU vs. Missouri below.
LSU Tigers
Jayden Daniels enters this matchup averaging 10.4 yards per attempt with a 91.1 PFF Passing Grade after he threw for 414 yards and four touchdowns against Ole Miss on Saturday. LSU will have to rely on his arm on Saturday because Missouri's secondary is average at best.
While LSU has been running the ball with a lot of success, Missouri isn't allowing anything on the ground right now. The Tigers have allowed only 2.9 yards per carry while ranking third in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 13th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
Even though LSU averages over five yards per carry, it's not going to be easy to run the ball on this front seven in a hostile environment on the road.
The problem for LSU at the moment is its defense can't stop anything. The Tigers rank outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush, EPA/Pass Allowed, Havoc and Finishing Drives Allowed — all while allowing 6.5 yards per play.
You could make the argument that they've played two of the best offenses in the country in Ole Miss and Florida State, but they also gave up over 300 yards to Arkansas and Grambling.
LSU ranks 128th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and just allowed Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart to throw for 389 yards and four touchdowns.
So, what do you think Cook is going to do?
Missouri Tigers
Missouri enters this game undefeated because of Cook, who's having a fabulous season under center as one of the most underrated quarterbacks in college football.
Cook is averaging 10.4 yards per attempt with an 81.8% Adjusted Completion Percentage.
And as you can see below, he keeps improving week after week.
It also helps that Cook is working with one of the best wide receivers in college football in Burden, who has the best PFF Receiving Grade in the country at 93.6 and has already caught 43 passes for 641 yards and five touchdowns.
COOK ➡️ BURDEN 🔥🔥@MizzouFootballpic.twitter.com/6skihzSVoS
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) September 30, 2023
One of the reasons Cook has been effective is because of how often Missouri is running the football. The Tigers have a 55.6% Rush Rate, and Cody Schrader has been pretty efficient by averaging 5.7 yards per attempt.
The Missouri defense has been incredibly dominant at stopping the run. The Tigers rank inside the top five in both Rushing Success Rate Allowed and Defensive Line Yards. Against FBS opponents this season, they're only allowing 2.9 yards per carry, so they should slow down one of the nation's best rushing attacks.
However, the Missouri secondary has been average at best. The Tigers are outside the top 70 in both Passing Success Rate Allowed and Coverage Grade, but they do have a strong pass rush that can cause Daniels some problems.
LSU vs Missouri
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how LSU and Missouri match up statistically:
LSU Offense vs Missouri Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 3 |  |
| Line Yards | 3 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 78 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 43 | |
| Finishing Drives | 17 | 113 | |
| Quality Drives | 3 | 61 | |
Missouri Offense vs LSU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 60 | 105 | |
| Line Yards | 108 | 88 | |
| Pass Success | 14 | 120 | |
| Havoc | 62 | 65 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 130 | |
| Quality Drives | 58 | 125 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 109 | 42 |
| PFF Coverage | 110 | 76 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 102 | 88 |
| Middle 8 | 13 | 8 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.6 (44) | 27.2 (73) |
| Rush Rate | 50.7% (86) | 55.6% (48) |
LSU vs Missouri
Betting Prediction, Pick
Should LSU really be this big of a favorite on the road coming off of a loss? With how bad the LSU defense has been, Missouri should move the ball at will. The Tigers don't have an answer at cornerback to cover Burden, so they're likely going to have to double team him, which will leave them exposed elsewhere in the secondary.
With how effective the Missouri front seven has been at rushing the passer and stopping the run, there will be a lot of pressure on Daniels to be effective in the passing game for LSU.
Even though LSU has the better offense, the Bayou Bengals are overvalued on the road here in Columbia. Plus, it's never a bad idea to back Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz as a home underdog.
I have LSU projected at -1.2, so I like the value on Missouri at +5.5
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