Georgia vs. Kentucky Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | +450 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 46.5 -115o / -105u | -650 |
There's a stark contrast for Georgia and Kentucky in historical records versus where the teams stand entering Week 6.
The Wildcats are fresh off a beatdown against SEC East rival Florida. Plenty of questions were answered surrounding head coach Mark Stoops' team, from the quarterback position to a rushing attack that had underwhelmed.
The defense also quieted the outside noise with nine tackles for loss and a trio of sacks against the Gators. Kentucky is now undefeated in October and a Week 6 victory away from owning the SEC East.
However, the historical records show a series completely owned by Georgia.
The Bulldogs have won 13 straight dating back to 2010 and own a 62-12 all-time series record. While Kentucky answered questions in Week 5, Georgia left plenty to be desired in a narrow road victory over Auburn.
The Bulldogs have gotten off to a slow start in every game, allowing their last three opponents to score a combined 55 points.
Questions remain around a defensive slide and low explosive numbers on offense, giving this Week 6 game plenty of intrigue.
Kentucky Wildcats
The conversation around Kentucky's offense centers around Vanderbilt transfer running back Ray Davis. The fifth-year senior exploded against Florida, contributing 280 yards on the ground with a massive 8.3 yards after contact.
The Gators allowed Davis to go for six runs over 15 yards, vaulting Kentucky to the highest-ranked rushing attack in college football in terms of explosives.
College Football’s Fastest Five of the Week:
1. @UKFootball RB Ray Davis (@Ray_Davis07) 21.7 mph #ReelSpeed 💨 @CoachJ_Boulware
🎥: @ESPNCFB
🔗 https://t.co/orrD059ykPpic.twitter.com/QJz6nlAuFZ
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) October 2, 2023
However, an inefficient passing game continues for Kentucky, as transfer quarterback Devin Leary did nothing against Florida to stave off questions about a pectoral injury. Leary finished 9-of-20 passing for 69 yards, an item that played a role in Kentucky converting just 2-of-9 third-down attempts.
The Wildcats also failed to complete a pass longer than 15 yards, generating just 4.7 yards in passing downs.
The defense continues to limit explosives, ranking third in allowing the big play. Defensive coordinator Brad White has the defense performing as expected with a soft strength of schedule. Kentucky ranks top-20 in Success Rate, allowing just eight rushing attempts to go longer than 10 yards.
Both cornerbacks, Maxwell Hairston and Andru Phillips, lead the team in tackles, accounting for nearly 25% of the team total. Defensive interior
Deone Walker has been a terror against quarterbacks, generating the second-most pressures nationally from the right side of the defensive line.
Georgia Bulldogs
Head coach Kirby Smart continues to see the Bulldogs start slow, as Auburn led, 10-0, after the first quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. After five games, Georgia has a neutral point differential in the first quarter compared to a +15.4 mark in the second half.
Whether early player execution or poor game planning is the culprit, Georgia continues to struggle out of the gate.
One area of focus is a rushing attack that ranks mid-FBS through nearly half of the season. Daijun Edwards leads the team in attempts but has experienced a career low of 2.4 yards after contact. Georgia ranks 32nd in run blocking, per PFF, leaving the mystery to the backfield.
Luckily for the Bulldogs, Georgia has not had to worry about the quarterback position. Carson Beck moved to seven touchdowns on the season while keeping his turnover-worthy play rate down to just 1.1% in all dropbacks.
All 23 completions from Carson Beck vs Auburn pic.twitter.com/0Ey6xUaeO5
— Back2Back 704 Dawg ➐ (@FSFRecruits) October 3, 2023
The Bulldogs fielded two incredible defenses for consecutive runs to the National Championship and set a high bar for the 2023 unit.
Georgia has lived up to the hype against the pass, ranking top-five in coverage and Defensive Passing Success Rate. Through a slate of offenses that includes Ball State, UAB, Auburn, South Carolina and Tennessee-Martin the Bulldogs have allowed just eight passes over 20 yards.
Its third-down numbers, along with its ability to limit explosives in passing downs, have been excellent, but it's struggled against the run.
PAYTON THORNE OPENS IT UP WITH A 61-YARD RUN. 🐅🦅 pic.twitter.com/4Juk8UuLoS
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) September 30, 2023
The Bulldogs slip just inside the top 50 in terms of Defensive Line Yards. Front seven efficiency looks at tackles for loss and sacks, along with numbers in short-yardage situations on third and fourth down.
Georgia has taken a severe dip in front seven efficiency, which looks at tackles for loss and sacks, along with numbers in short-yardage situations on third and fourth downs. The decrease in production is especially apparent when looking at tackles for loss and four-yard rushing gains allowed.
Kentucky vs Georgia
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kentucky and Georgia match up statistically:
Kentucky Offense vs. Georgia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 72 | 38 | |
| Line Yards | 98 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 77 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 70 | 42 | |
| Finishing Drives | 41 | 40 |  |
| Quality Drives | 47 | 8 | |
Georgia Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 18 | |
| Line Yards | 58 | 37 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 28 | 51 | |
| Finishing Drives | 20 | 23 | |
| Quality Drives | 18 | 23 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 55 | 9 |
| PFF Coverage | 12 | 3 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 5 | 62 |
| Middle 8 | 74 | 33 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.3 (121) | 27.6 (79) |
| Rush Rate | 47.8% (95) | 48.1% (88) |
Kentucky vs Georgia
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both Kentucky and Georgia have played a lighter strength of schedule to this point, but the rushing metrics cannot be ignored on one side of the ball.
Kentucky boasts the most explosive rush unit in college football, becoming the primary handicap against a Bulldogs defense that's been lackluster. Georgia has allowed 19 rushing gains of at least 10 yards, falling to 38th in Defensive Rush Expected Points.
Another pain point for the defending champions is opponent scoring opportunities. In 21 opponent drives that have crossed the 40-yard line, the Bulldogs defense has allowed an average of 3.1 points. While that's better than the national average of 3.6, the Bulldogs are on pace to post their worst Points per Opportunity mark since before the 2020 pandemic season.
Meanwhile, Georgia's offense should have success against an untested Kentucky defense. The Wildcats don't generate an above-average Havoc Rate — a plus for a Bulldogs offense that ranks 28th in Havoc Allowed.
Georgia has advantages in Quality Drives and Finishing Drives, along with large edges in Standard Downs and Passing Downs Success Rate. Georgia's offense — a unit that has scored on 23 of its 26 trips to the red zone — will find scoring opportunities.
Action Network projects Georgia -14.5, which is in line with the current market.
While the game is expected to be a slow grind offensively thanks to slow tempo, both teams will create scoring opportunities. Look for Davis and Kentucky's ground attack to generate explosives early against a Georgia defense that sleepwalks in the first quarter.
Another Bulldogs comeback may be in store for the second half, propelling this number above the game total.
