Illinois vs. Maryland Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
Big Ten conference play is in full effect as Maryland hosts Illinois in a cross-division matchup. Both teams come into this week following a multi-score loss and hope to rebound on the path to hopeful bowl eligibility.
Illinois is riding a two-game losing streak, including an upset home loss to Nebraska last week. The Illini are 0-6 against the spread (ATS) and 4-2 to the Under.
Maryland comes into this game following a disappointing 20-point loss to Ohio State after starting the year 5-0. The Terrapins are 3-3 ATS.
Fall weather is here in Big Ten country, and it will be on full display in this game. We should see 58-to-60 degrees temps, with 5.5-to-7.4 mile per hour cross-winds and potential rain. Scoring could be affected.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Things have not gone according to plan in Bret Bielema's third season in Champaign.
After an 8-5 campaign in 2022, where his team had a clear identity, Bielema's team is struggling on both sides of the ball in 2023.
The Illini boast a 45% Success Rate and 3.43 Points Per Opportunity, ranking 98th nationally. They average 19.2 points per game and 5.7 yards per play. One particular area of concern is their 21% Havoc rate allowed.
Transfer quarterback Luke Altmeyer has been up and down as the team's starter. He's completing 64.2% of his passes for an average of 7.2 yards per attempt, but he's thrown eight interceptions to only six touchdowns.
As a team, Illinois averages 250.3 passing yards per game and has a 44% Passing Success Rate.
The ground game is still the Illini's strength. They run the ball around 31 times per game with a 48% Rush Success Rate. Their offensive line generates 3.25 Line Yards per attempt while allowing a 12.6% Stuff rate. Three backs split the carries, with Reggie Love leading the team with 257 rushing yards on 51 carries while Josh McCray and Kaden Feagin each have over 145 rush yards on the year.
Defense was the team's strength last year, but that unit has regressed after losing multiple players to the NFL. They allow 28.8 points per game and 5.4 yards per play, alongside a 44% Success Rate, 3.84 Points Per Opportunity, and a 15% Havoc rate.
Maryland Terrapins
After starting 5-0 against a relatively easy schedule, Maryland had Ohio State on the ropes before losing by 20. The Maryland offense averages 35.0 points per game and 6.3 yards per play with a 45% Success Rate and 4.45 Points Per Opportunity.
Maryland throws the ball at the 28th-highest rate nationally (54%). Quarterback Taulia Tagavailoa is completing 62.9% of his passes at 7.9 yards per attempt. While he's thrown five interceptions, he has offset them with 14 touchdowns.
As a team, Maryland has a 47% Pass Success Rate, averaging six passes of 20-plus yards per game.
Three Maryland running backs have over 200 rushing yards, with Roman Hemby spearheading the attack with 344 rush yards at 4.8 yards per carry. As a team, Maryland averages 148.8 rushing yards per game with a 44% Rush Success Rate. The offensive line generates 3.21 line yards per attempt while allowing a 13.6% stuff rate.
The Maryland defense allows 17.2 points per game and 5.0 yards per play, allowing a 41% Success Rate, 2.66 Points Per Opportunity and 2.8 20-plus yard plays per game.
Illinois vs Maryland
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Illinois and Maryland match up statistically:
Illinois Offense vs Maryland Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 101 | |
| Line Yards | 38 | 97 | |
| Pass Success | 57 | 55 |  |
| Havoc | 113 | 85 | |
| Finishing Drives | 99 | 14 | |
| Quality Drives | 132 | 24 | |
Maryland Offense vs Illinois Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 109 | |
| Line Yards | 59 | 116 | |
| Pass Success | 36 | 68 | |
| Havoc | 15 | 117 | |
| Finishing Drives | 33 | 86 | |
| Quality Drives | 30 | 112 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 40 | 3 |
| PFF Coverage | 82 | 19 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 67 | 77 |
| Middle 8 | 89 | 12 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.1 (20) | 25.2 (36) |
| Rush Rate | 46.5% (117) | 46.3% (104) |
Illinois vs Maryland
Betting Pick & Prediction
As of this writing, sharps have strongly favored the road underdog in this matchup. While only 48% of tickets favor Illinois, 72% of the handle is on the Illini.
But even with the sharps backing Illinois, my preferred play is on Maryland at -14 or better.
Maryland's offense has advantages across the board against an Illinois defense that struggles to contain mobile quarterbacks. While Illinois should be able to run the ball, that won't be enough to keep up with Maryland's aerial attack, resulting in a dominant Terps win.
Additionally, with both teams' pace of play, I'd lean towards the over.
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